What makes this project interesting for us here at the Dymaxion Web is the simple truth that where the stakes are highest the disinformation is greatest. Although this thought is never very far from our minds --being perhaps the raison d'etre of this publication-- we were forcefully reminded of this while reading the most recent posting of John Mauldin's weekly newsletter, "Thoughts from the Frontline" (www.frontlinethoughts.com). John talks about the "Super Trend Puzzle":
"I am a big fan of puzzles of all kind, especially picture puzzles. I love to figure out how the pieces fit together and what picture emerges, ....
Perhaps that explains my fascination with economics and investing, as there is no greater puzzle (except possible the great theological puzzles or the mind of a woman, for which I have only a few clues."
John lists as his secular super trends:
The Aging of the Developing World
The Balancing of Globalization
A Secular Bear Market
The Muddle Through Economy
It gives us some pause to wonder why so little serious ink is being given in the mediasphere to the great tectonic movements like the ones above that will eventually reshape all of our lives. Certainly, as investors of hard-earned capital, we could do well to try to understand their implications on future markets and politics.
The Dymaxion Web has been founded --we've been cyberpublishing for all of two and a half months-- to create an antidote to misinformation, not through the brainpower of any single or group of individuals but through a dynamic network of information, knowledge and intuition:::: as is so hinted in our kick-line.
We can't, of course, be satisfied with merely reactively picking through the daily disinformation or fog of war. Much of what we see also comes from informative pieces like Paul Krugman's column today in the New York Times entitled "Another Bogus Budget" http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/03/opinion/03KRUG.html where the Princeton economist puts into context yesterday's attempt by the administration to hide the effects of its phony revenue and spending projections.
But it's also important to be constantly aware that disinformation is only part of the problem, even if it is perhaps the most pernicious. After all, disinformation is the kind of thing that got us into Iraq and disinformation is likely to keep a veil over that particular tinderbox until it blows up in our faces. Policy makers get us into these fixes but in the end, we all know who pays the piper.
We have to get at what's really going on as best we can in this vast forest first by establishing direct and indirect links (blogrolls seem to be catching on). Our belief is that interactive communications within the context of something similar to a semantic web, albeit something more conducive to extended machine intelligence than the one described by Tim Berniers-Lee, can greatly enhance the knowledge snapshot at any given time.
We need eyewitnesses to report from the ground but even more importantly we need the perspective of human intelligence. For instance, we need to analyze various lists of supertrends like those offered us by Mauldin and others until we have clearer views of the contradictions and permutations. One example, --and this is just one of thousands-- how does technology development get changed by and change these supertrends? Will the combination of biotechnology, computer intelligence and communications, or even robotics have a profound impact on the aging of the developing world curve? Can we, for instance, expect to see the Boomers leading far more productive lives in their seventies and eighties than their parents or grandparents?
One of the gaps that struck us in the Mauldin analysis on "balancing globalization" and one that may be critical, is the importance of the US education infrastructure. Anyone familiar with the absolute failure of our public schools has to wonder just how the US intends to maintain its leadership at the technological vanguard in the coming decades, particularly if the premise is correct that we will not be able to compete on labor costs or manufacturing know-how. In the 90's we were able to easily import Indians and eastern Asians to fill the cubes of Silicon Valley. But, of course, there was blowback, as there always is. Today many of these engineers and entrepreneurs have returned to their own countries where they have set up shop. No longer can Silicon Valley or Alley rely on a cultural and communications gap that served as a buffer to outsiders looking for technology niches to exploit. Can we be sure that the next Cisco will be a US-based company?
And so, we'll ask the question: Can the US, where, by the way, xDSL adoption trails much of the 1st World, assume that it will have a natural technological lead strong enough to propel it forward even in the face of growing global competition? Looking into our schools, we can't say that's something we'd put our money on.
r m-b
dymaxionweb@verizon.net Copyright 2003 Richard Mendel-Black All Rights Reserved
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