H5N1

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August 31, 2005

H5 infections in Ibaraki, Japan

Antibody tests showed Tuesday that chickens at seven more farms in Ibaraki Prefecture may have been infected with a bird flu virus of the H5 strain in the past, the prefectural government said.

Chickens at two farms near the seven in the town of Ogawa have already tested positive for antibodies to the virus.

The prefectural government imposed a ban on transferring chickens and eggs from an area surrounding the seven farms to places outside.

It will also decide whether to cull the chickens at the farms after hearing from an expert panel of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

The prefectural government has confirmed that chickens at 14 farms were infected with the avian influenza.

The story comes from Kyodo News.

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Finska måsar bar inte värsta virusen

Det hundratal måsar som dött i Finland har inte dukat under för någon av de farligaste virusen, som det fruktade H5N1, visar tester. Exakt vad det var för smitta är ännu inte klart. Copyright: SvD 2005

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熵

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ANTICIPATION

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Reuters AlertNet - Experts see Alaska as US front against bird flu

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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Thailand? - Recombinomics

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Thailand? Recombinomics, PA - 3 hours ago ... they are raising. The confirmation of H5N1 in domestic chickens in Thailand may signal the arrival of H5N wild bird flu. As noted ...

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Pigs, bulls die in southern Vietnam

According to Thanh Nien Daily, 200 pigs and 5 bulls in southern Vietnam have died of a mysterious disease. Symptoms included diarrhea, bleeding legs, and drooling. Authorities were investigating the possibility that the animals had been imported from Cambodia. Over a thousand pigs, and over fifty bulls and cows, came down with the disease but appear to have survived. The story mentions no human cases.

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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Bulgaria?Big News Network.com - Bulgaria News

European Union has requested Bulgaria to take the urgent control measure. The above machine translation of a boxun report suggest

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No Matter Where I Am In the World.....Zen and the Art of Living It Up

When I lived in London, it was during the Mad Cow era was infecting the beef, now here I am in Japan and the bird flu is attacking the chickens.
Signs of bird flu again detected in Japanese poultry, report says
Authorities have detected signs of bird flu at seven additional poultry farms near a previously affected ranch outside Tokyo, a news report said Tuesday.
Antibody tests showed the chickens may be infected with a virus from the H5 family, and officials have restricted movement of fowl and eggs in the affected area, in Ibaraki Prefecture just northeast of Tokyo, Kyodo News Agency said.
Signs of the antibodies means the chickens were infected in the past but had survived.
Local authorities are still deciding whether to cull the birds.
Japan's Agriculture Ministry identified a previous outbreak of bird flu in Ibaraki last week amid reports that 260,000 chickens would be culled. The strain involved is less virulent that the H5N1 variety that has ravaged poultry in Southeast Asia since 2003 and killed more than 60 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
Bird flu hit Japan last year for the first time in decades, killing or prompting the extermination of more than 300,000 chickens. Japan also confirmed a human case of bird flu in December, but no deaths have been reported.
An outbreak in June forced the culling of about 94,000 birds at another farm outside Tokyo. It was caused by the H5N2 bird flu strain, a variety not known to infect humans. (AP)
August 30, 2005

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Diseased seagulls in Finland not affected with H5N1 virus: EC ...Big News Network.com - Finland News

Xinhuanet) -- European Commission (EC) spokesman Philip Tod said on Monday that the suspected cases of seagulls affected with H5N1 virus in Finland were only a

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France reinforces defenses against bird fluThe World > Russia - Waypath Topic Streams

PARIS (Reuters) - France said on Tuesday it would toughen defenses against the potential arrival of bird flu in the country, reinforcing checks at airports and building stockpiles of vaccines in the event of a human pandemic. France has said there is a moderate but real risk that the H5N1 deadly strain of bird flu that has hit Asia and Russia could spread to Europe via migratory birds. "Reserves of antiviral medicines, vaccines and protection measures for the population will be increased

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Reply to Web and Magazine articles on the potential for a flu pandemicAvian Flu Watch

Quiplashr posted a reply:

The Sunday Times - Britain, August 28, 2005

Focus: Atishoo, Atishoo, we all fall down?

www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1753479_1,00.html


Focus: A deadly bird flu, lethal to some animals, is spreading towards Britain. How serious is the threat to humans and what can be done to counter it? Jonathan Calvert, Sarah-Kate Templeton and Will Iredale report

It is the drug of the moment and Ken Livingstone, the London mayor, has ordered 100,000 courses of it. Several British companies are believed to be building stockpiles. Some individuals are said to be paying three times the retail price trying to buy illicit supplies through overseas websites.

The drug is Tamiflu, a prescription antiviral medicine thought to be the only protection available against a potential doomsday virus winging its way towards Britain.

Earlier this month a deadly bird flu, which has been spreading out from Asia, reached Russia. Yesterday a suspected case was reported in Finland, but the exact strain is not yet clear.

The H5N1 virus has killed tens of millions of animals, particularly chickens in Asia, but also other species. So far the strain has infected very few humans — only about 120 — but in those it has attacked it has been highly lethal. Half of them died.

The fear is that H5N1, like all flu viruses, will continue mutating and could turn into a strain that infects humans and passes from one person to another as easily as the common cold.

“If we do get human-to- human transmission, millions will die,” said Dr Nigel Higson, chairman of the primary care virology group.

“With huge numbers of people using air travel, it will move round the world very quickly. A large proportion of people in Africa would die. In western countries where we will hopefully have an avian flu vaccine and antivirals, 25% of the population will be infected and the death rate will be between 3% and 10% of the population. The fatalities will not just be the sick and elderly.”

Experts believe such a pandemic could cause a catastrophe on the scale of the 1918 Spanish flu that killed 50m people in 18 months.

Last month the Department of Health invited manufacturers to tender for a contract to develop and supply a vaccine against the strain. It is also spending up to £100m buying 14.6m courses of Tamiflu — an indication of how seriously it is taking the threat.

There is one big unknown: whether the virus can or will become transmissible between humans. Scientists have little evidence that it can do so at present and nobody knows whether it will be able to do so in the future.

“Although we expect this virus to become a pandemic we have no proof as yet that it will happen,” said Higson.

“To have a pandemic we have got to have a new virus.”

FLU is one of the most mutable viruses in the world, constantly shuffling its array of genes into new forms. The type known as H5N1 is thought to have originated in ducks from the Guangdong province of China in the late 1990s and drew particular attention because it proved devastating in poultry.

Almost every chicken that contracted H5N1 was dead within 48 hours. In 1997 the first human cases emerged during an outbreak on poultry farms in Hong Kong. Eighteen people suffered respiratory infections and six died.

Although more than 1.5m chickens were slaughtered in Hong Kong in an attempt to eradicate the virus, it managed to survive elsewhere — some animals can carry it without dying — and came back even stronger than before.

In January 2003 a tougher “Z” strain emerged in Thailand and Vietnam, capable of killing rats and later pigs. It also killed 45 tigers that were fed raw chicken in Thai zoos; more than 100 others had to be destroyed after becoming infected. National authorities ordered the slaughter of more than 120m chickens as the strain spread to Cambodia, China, Indonesia and Malaysia. This summer more than 120,000 poultry in six regions of western Siberia were destroyed after the discovery of H5N1.

Wild species — in particular bar-headed geese — were found to be infected in Siberia and Mongolia, which witnessed the mass deaths of birds around Lake Erhel in its Huvsgel province.

Several experts feared that the outbreaks had brought the virus within range of Europe through the flightpaths of migrating birds.

In Holland — where a similar avian flu outbreak five years ago led to 30m chickens being culled — officials last week compelled farmers to bring all their poultry indoors.

John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary’s School of Medicine in London, called on Britain to take similar precautions and Bob McCracken, president of the British Veterinary Association, warned that migrating birds would “inevitably” carry bird flu to the UK at some stage.

However, Debbie Reynolds, the government’s chief veterinary officer, was more cautious after discussing the threat with European Union experts last week; she said the risk of the virus reaching Britain was “remote or low”.

Nevertheless, wildlife is being monitored around the country for any sign of avian flu. If it does arrive it could could easily spread across a range of wild birds — waterfowl are particularly vulnerable — and other animals.

Nor is it simply a problem for the countryside: many migrating birds land at wetlands near cities, such as Barnes, west London, and Martin Mere near Liverpool. Domestic cats that eat H5N1- infected birds could catch the virus, as has proved to be the case in Thailand.

So far studies of the virus’s human victims have concluded that they mostly contracted H5N1 through close contact with diseased or dead birds. The virus is found in both the faeces and raw meat. Most infections have occurred during the slaughter and defeathering of poultry for cooking. It is common in Asia to buy a live chicken at the market and take it home to eat.

Over the past year health officials in Thailand and Vietnam have also investigated three cases that could be the first evidence of transmission between humans.

In each case the victims had cared for an infected family member and then developed the virus several days later. Health officials have not ruled out the possibility that the virus was transmitted by a shared meal or some other exposure in the home.

If there is any human-to- human infection it is extremely limited at present and it is notable that previous H5-type flu viruses have not generally been transmissible between humans.

However, all three global influenza pandemics in the past 100 years have been linked to strains of bird flu that adapted to humans. While scientists emphasise that this risk is always present, they are particularly concerned now because the H5N1 virus is so lethal.

Victims suffer coughing, headaches, fever, dizziness, diarrhoea and internal bleeding. The autopsy of one child who died from the disease last year is reported to have shown that his lungs had been “torn apart” as his natural defences tried to fight the virus.

Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert in flu epidemics from Imperial College London, said: “This particular bird flu variety generates more severe diseases in humans than most bird flu varieties. It would be more like the 1918 type of pandemic than the 1957 or 1968 pandemics . . . that is potentially a very severe event.”

There is also a belief among some experts that pandemics are cyclical and the next is overdue. Forecasting of such catastrophes, however, is an imprecise science. A mutation turning the virus into a form more infective to humans could happen anywhere in the world — or the virus might become less lethal or, indeed, it might not happen at all.

Health officials have cried wolf about flu before and been wrong. When a soldier suddenly died from swine flu in the US in 1976, experts feared an epidemic, predicting that 1m Americans might perish.

President Gerald Ford ordered a mass vaccination of Americans despite the doubts of drug companies over being able to produce enough vaccine swiftly and safely. The flu epidemic never materialised and the US government paid $90m to claimants who suffered serious side effects from the vaccine.

IN judging how to react there are other factors to consider, too, principally the practical limits on protecting yourself. At present there is no licensed vaccination against H5NI and there is not likely to be one in the near future.

Three weeks ago the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in America reported initial success in trials on a vaccine developed by Sanofi Pasteur, the pharmaceutical company. But the vaccine has yet to receive regulatory approval, which could take months.

It would also take years to produce enough vaccine to immunise the whole of Britain, and by then the virus strain could have changed out of recognition.

Marie-José Quentin-Millet, head of research at Sanofi Pasteur, describes its new vaccine as merely a “dress rehearsal” to build scientific knowledge so that it can be adapted if and when a strain of the virus more infective to humans emerges.

In reality, it is likely that a flu epidemic could be months old by the time anyone gets a vaccination. Even if a suitable vaccine could be produced, few doses would reach the general public. A report by the Department of Health says: “International demand for vaccine will be high. Vaccine will have to be distributed equitably and administered to predetermined priority groups first, according to nationally agreed recommendations.”

The priority groups set out in the report are frontline health workers followed by vital services such as police officers, firemen, the army and undertakers. Most of the population are very unlikely to be offered a vaccine. Given these limitations, the health department has chosen to make its block purchase of Tamiflu. Made by Roche, the drug can be used to protect against contracting the virus or to alleviate the symptoms of those already infected. The full order of 14.6m doses ordered by the health department will not be delivered until March 2007. At present the government has a stockpile of 900,000 doses and they would be offered first to the priority groups. For this reason several organisations are trying to acquire their own stocks, including the London mayor’s office, which spent more than £1m buying antivirals to protect key workers in the capital. Doctors advise strongly against individuals hoarding drugs. “If individuals stock up with pre-orders, the medication will not be there for those who need it when there is an outbreak,” Higson said. There is another problem, too: many of the people who have been infected by bird flu were given Tamiflu, yet they still died. So in the absence of medication, what else could you do if there were an outbreak? According to the contingency plan people would be advised to avoid public transport, crowds, long queues and anywhere else they might encounter carriers of the virus. Most effective, it seems, will be to stay at home and wait until the outbreak is over.

Additional reporting: Nicci Smith, Brussels

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Nanaimo - canada.com network: Scientists, health officials planning for flu pandemicBlogPulse Search Results for: influenza pandemic

The meeting comes as governments around the world ramp up pandemic preparedness efforts in reponse to concerns that the avian influenza strain known as H...TORONTO — Leaders of Canada’s scientific and public health community will meet this week to chart a course for influenza research that could help the c ountry prepare for a flu pandemic....5N1 might be poised to trigger the first flu pandemic since the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69. ... CIHR’s much larger American counterpart, the National Institutes of Health, began scaling up influenza work in early 2004 when the current H5N1 outbreak was i n its infancy....

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August 30, 2005

Bar-Headed Goose Flyway from China to India (via Flickr)

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Integrated U.S. Effort Helps Mitigate Spread of Bird Flu in AsiaUS State Dept - Washington File

The U.S. government is pursuing a broad-based, integrated response effort to help mitigate the spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Asia, Dr. Chuck Lambert, deputy under secretary for marketing and regulatory programs at the U.S. Department of Agriculture tells the Washington File.

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Vaccination program starts in Hanoi

A trial poultry vaccination programme began in the Vietnamese capital in a bid to combat bird flu, which has caused 42 deaths in the communist nation.

"After the pilot program, which started Monday, a mass vaccination campaign will be launched in Hanoi between September 15 and 30," Dao Duy Tam, deputy director of Hanoi's agriculture and rural development department, told AFP.

[...] The government, which earlier planned to begin vaccinating 80 percent of its more than 200 million chickens and ducks in October, decided to bring the start forward to September.

Vietnam wants to complete the mass vaccination before winter, which is believed to be the prime time for the virus to spread.

ww.todayonline.com/articles/69425.asp">Source.

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August 29, 2005

Major Migratory Bird Flyways (Flickr)

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Avian Flu Fears Spread.

I have not been putting much stock into the fears of a bird flu pandemic, but it seems as if governments and media have. We also may have an indication of how serious the British government takes the threat by the actions of its officials:MEMBERS of Britain’s elite have been selected as

priority cases to receive scarce pills and vaccinations at the

taxpayers’ expense if the country is hit by a deadly bird flu outbreak.

Workers at the BBC and prominent politicians — such as cabinet ministers — would be offered protection from the virus.

NI_MPU('middle');Ken

Livingstone, the London mayor, has already spent £1m to make sure his

personal office and employees have their own emergency supplies of

100,000 antiviral tablets.

If there is an avian flu pandemic in the coming months there

would be enough drugs to protect less than 2% of the British population

for a week.This is especially rancorous for me for obvious reasons, and as I tend toward skepticism in matters of doomsday predictions, I also tend to get overly indignant when government officials demonstrate a craven me-first attitude.

The virus is no said to be spreading from Asia into Russia. From there, fears are that migratory birds would bring the deadly strain over the Urals and into Western Russia and then to the Balkans, which is seen as a possible gateway to central Europe:Lakes and rivers along the Black Sea coast ranging from Ukraine to

northern Turkey attract millions of birds each winter from an area

stretching from northern Russia to Scandinavia. Europe's largest

wetlands, Romania's Danube delta, and lakes in northern Bulgaria, are

popular among flocks of red-breasted geese from Siberia as well as

white-fronted geese from Scandinavia, Poland, and Germany.

"There is a risk of spreading the deadly strain of flu to local

wildlife if any of them is infected," said Boris Barov, head of

Bulgarian Society for Protection of Birds. Jutzi said countries in southeast Europe may lack the capacity to detect and deal with a widespread outbreak.As it stands now, the fear is that the H5N1 strain would mingle with more standard flu strains and mutate into a sort of super-flu that would spread wider and faster from wild birds to farm poultry:The present European

Commission directive designed to curtail the threat of bird flu is

concerned only with 'high pathogenic' strains, but there are growing

concerns that these can originate from 'low pathogenic' strains which

can be transmitted to poultry from wild birds.

On

Friday, the authorities in Finland detected a case of bird flu in the

north of the country which is thought to be a low pathogenic strain.

The discovery has added to concerns over the speed with which bird flu

is edging towards western Europe.Now, no human has been infected in Russia yet, and the epidemic there seems to have stabilized. However, the demonstrated failure with regards to BSE some years back should give everyone pause.

Here's a good explanation why the avian flu is suddenly getting attention:The H5N1 strain is particularly dangerous because

it mutates very rapidly and can mix with genes from other viruses thus

allowing it to spread to other species. In addition it is highly

pathogenic and can cause severe disease outbreaks.

With the infection spreading in birds there's an increased risk for

direct infection of humans, too. And if more people become infected, it

also becomes more likely that humans, if infected with human and bird

flu strains at the same time, could serve as the "mixing vessel" for

the emergence of a novel strain that could easily be transmitted from

person to person. Such an event would mark the start of an influenza

pandemic.Efforts continue in the US to quarantine against H5N1 here.

The government plans to more than triple the number of

quarantine stations at airports around the country and hire scores of

health officers as part of a broad plan to try to stop deadly

infectious diseases from entering the United States.

Ten

new stations, at airports stretching from Alaska to Puerto Rico, are

already open or nearing completion, and about 50 new health officers

are undergoing training. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

plans to build an additional seven stations as soon as it can get the

money. Eight stations that have existed for years are gaining staff, so

that when the plan is complete, the country will be blanketed by a

network of 25 centers designed as a first-line of defense against a

global disease pandemic.Apart from the personal, some economists are claiming that a pandemic that rises to the predictions could cause a world-wide depression:

In a first-of-its-kind report on the financial impact of a possible pandemic,

BMO Nesbitt Burns researchers in Canada warned that an outbreak could devastate

the airline and hospitality industries, trigger mass foreclosures and

bankruptcies, decimate insurance companies, and disrupt food chains as people

switched from animal to vegetable diets.Losses would amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.Before we start building bunkers, buying gold and shotguns, it should be noted that most of this is hypothesis mixed with a tinge of paranoia. There is an old adage that economists have reliably predicted ten of the last eight recessions. Also, it has become a habit to over play threats to sell newspapers and bilk the citizenry out of more tax dollars by hyping danger. Maybe a way to play this is to invest in Whole Foods Market or any number of organic, vegetarian food producers.

Still, this could happen, although I would wager that the reality will be somewhere in between a blip and a global disaster. On which side of center we land will be the subject of more coverage before long.

Some links and info come from Maggie (who is canning tomatoes and wearing a gas mask 24/7) and the Avian Flu blog.

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Alaska State, UAF test for avian influenza

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The nutters are coming ! Huzzah, Huzzah ! The nutters are coming !

As proof (if proof was needed) that there are some "very strange" people out there in Internet land - I introduce you to the "Bird Flu is a New World Order conspiracy to destroy us all".

And, before you laugh at the loons, dear reader, please remember ..... these people might indeed live near you !!!! (Shudder)

Oh .... and they don't like anyone who isn't an Anglo-Saxon !!

************************************************************

"BASICS:

1. A human Bird Flu epidemic is almost certain to happen at some point, quite possibly in the next few months.

2. There is not likely to be any vaccine available for most people. Even if one is developed then it will take too long to mass produce.

3. Unlike normal flu, bird flu targets the young and healthy as much as anybody else.

4. Death rates could vary but at the moment run at about 75 per cent of those infected.

5. Estimates of total deaths in the West range from about 10% to 30% of the population.

6. Face masks provide little protection as the sub-micron sized viral particles can easily get round gaps.

7. Some argue that you can increase your immunity by taking herbal preparations.

8. The only reliable method of avoiding the disease is to avoid contact with other people who may be carriers.

According to the Times:

"So in the absence of medication, what else could you do if there were an outbreak? According to the contingency plan people would be advised to avoid public transport, crowds, long queues and anywhere
else they might encounter carriers of the virus. Most effective, it seems, will be to stay at home and wait until the outbreak is over. "

CONSPIRACY:

Some people believe that this virus is being artificially created in order to cull the world's population down to a size desired by the International Monocracy (NWO).

a) It is known that the NWO wish to see a reduced world population. Estimates of the desirable population range from 2 billion down to half a billion. The current world population is 6 billion.

b) It is thought that there is a greater desire to cull the third world population rather than Western population which is more productive and has lower birth rates already. However there is no
reason to believe that they do not wish to cull the Western population.

c) The bird flu virus is an unusual and unnatural one compared to most flu viruses giving reason to believe that it is a designer virus. It is assumed that AIDS and SARS were also designer viruses.

d) Genetic sequence from the Spanish flu virus of 1918 (collected in 1933) has been detected in H5N1. There is no explanation other than it being released from a scientific laboratory. The implication is
that there is a deliberate desire to create a new virus with some of the characteristics of the Spanish Flu virus - which caused the worst epidemic of recent times.

e) The Chinese authorities are not being open about the spread of H5N1 and it appears that they have something to hide. A laboratory that has been sequencing the virus has been closed down.

f) A number of leading world scientists who might have expertise in this area have been killed in suspicious circumstances in recent
years.

g) Despite frantic warnings from some scientists about the risk of a global pandemic there is little response from the politicians. The political classes are not mobilising us to deal with the threat.

THOUGHTS:

i) People should not wait on government to provide a lead, but look to their own resources to increase their chance of survival.

ii) People should not trust the words of official bodies such as the WHO, which may be deliberately down-playing the dangers.

iii) People also have to consider other factors such as the possibility of global nuclear war at the same time as the epidemic.

iv) People also have to expect that the authorities will be much fiercer during the crisis than they might expect. It is worth looking back at what happened to farmers during the foot and mouth outbreak. (Some consider this was spread artificially and that the draconian cull policy adopted had no legitimate justification)

http://www.holarchist.org.uk (has a few Bird Flu links on home page)"

******************************************

And they dare call ME paranoid ! {The Rabbit gives an insane snigger then barks at the moon}

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Donation of 3 million treatments of oseltamivir to WHO will help early response to an emerging influenza pandemic

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A bum rap for wild birds?

New Scientist has a story about the Brussels conference: Bird flu knocks on Europe's door. As always, NS offers a clear and readable account, this time with a different angle: avian flu may be moving west not in migrating wild birds, but in domestic poultry whose owners are just taking care of business.

Evidence for spread by wild birds is circumstantial. Yevgeny Nepoklonov, head of the veterinary department of the Russian Agriculture Ministry, told the World Animal Health Organisation (OIE) in Paris this month that in the six territories where outbreaks have been reported, "the first [domestic] birds to be affected are those kept in homes close to reservoirs"— where wild birds may visit.

On the other hand, not one healthy wild bird carrying highly pathogenic H5N1 has yet been reported, apart from a few carrying a somewhat different virus in Hong Kong in 2002. Hon Ip, a virologist at the US National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin, US, notes that in Russia's report on Novosibirsk to the OIE, the H5N1 virus it had isolated from a wild duck was different from the viruses isolated in its domestic poultry.

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CIDRAP update

CIDRAP, always an important resource, has a newly updated post on Avian Influenza (Bird Flu): Implications for Human Disease. Very much worth reading and bookmarking.

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Toronto gets ready for flu pandemic

The Star, Canada's highest-circulation newspaper, reports that the Toronto region is getting ready for the pandemic. (Free registration required to read the story.)

"There's a lot of things going on and have been going on for a long time," said Dr. Michael Gardam, head of infection control for the University Health Network and a key player in pandemic preparedness plans.

"I can say honestly, pandemic flu has taken up probably half my time in the last year."

Among the issues being considered are: the ability to staff hospitals, the need for triage centres to access ill people, alternative care facilities to deal with large numbers of sick people, the development of a volunteer management plan, morgue capacity and absenteeism.

"People have to realize everything we do in life will be affected by this," Gardam said yesterday.

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UK Tories complain about bird flu drug delay

According to a story in London's Financial Times, Tamiflu has become a political football in Britain.

The Conservatives accused the government of ordering the vital drug too late, leaving the country vulnerable. Andrew Lansley, shadow health secretary, said: "Because the government ordered its stocks of Tamiflu later than some other countries, the UK will not have full stocks available until the latter part of 2006. This leaves us with a degree of vulnerability to the risk of an early pandemic."

This would be tolerable, I guess, if Mr. Lansley hadn't implied that prompt purchase of mountains of Tamiflu would have seen Britain sail through the pandemic without so much as a sniffle.

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Flu treated like BSE?

The Independent quotes two experts who warn that the British government is sitting on its hands. Here's what one of them said:

Last night Professor Hugh Pennington, president of the Society for General Microbiology, who has warned that up to two million Britons could be killed by the disease, said that Defra[Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs] was repeating the disastrous policies of its predecessor, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, over BSE because "it did not want to tread on anybody's toes from the point of view of agribusiness".

Very interesting to see how rapidly flu is becoming a UK political issue as H5N1 approaches. Meanwhile it's still off the North American political radar. The first sick bird in Alaska or British Columbia will likely change that.

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US to triple airport quarantine stations

According to a story in the Washington Post, the US plans to triple airport quarantine stations in hopes of keeping infectious diseases out of the country.

The plan is a response to rising fears about bioterrorism or a potential pandemic of respiratory illness. For example, experts fear that a highly lethal form of influenza now circulating among birds in Asia, if it undergoes certain genetic changes, could start spreading rapidly among humans, potentially killing millions. In an age of global air travel, such an illness could jump from foreign countries to the United States in hours.

This makes sense, but imagine a scenario in which thousands are trying to get out of east Asia into North America to escape a pandemic, only to find flights have been cancelled. An alternative tactic would be to fly to whatever country still accepts flights from Asia, and then to make their way to North America by whatever means possible. It could mean a bonanza for snakeheads, the human smugglers who now bring illegal immigrants into Canada and the US from Asia.

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Nine dead in Nepal

An unknown disease has broken out in Nepal, according to Xinhuanet and some local sources. None of the stories is very detailed, and all repeat the same facts: Nine people have died in eastern Nepal in recent weeks, the last two on Saturday night within hours of displaying symptoms: high fever, headache, bleeding from the nose, and vomiting blood.

Many victims of Spanish flu displayed such symptoms, so this outbreak deserves watching.

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Britain's elite get pills to survive bird flu - The Sunday Times

Britain's elite get pills to survive bird flu The Sunday Times, UK - Aug 27, 2005 ... Fears that a “doomsday” virus may sweep the world have been heightened by the recent spread of the lethal strain of avian flu, H5N1. ... After decades of war and isolation, Vietnam could become the ... Sunday Herald all 2 related

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Bird flu precautions being taken - Wodonga Border Mail

Bird flu precautions being taken Wodonga Border Mail, Australia - 16 hours ago ... The plan involves developing an early warning system that provides rapid detection, diagnosis and treatment of the H5N1 flu strain that experts fear could ... Australia makes preparations for bird flu outbreak Xinhua all 12 related

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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Bulgaria? - Recombinomics

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Bulgaria? Recombinomics, PA - Aug 28, 2005 The above machine translation of a boxun report suggest that H5N1 wild bird flu has been detected in Bulgaria. Although Bulgaria ...

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Diseased seagulls in Finland not affected with H5N1 virus: EC ... - Xinhua

CRI

Diseased seagulls in Finland not affected with H5N1 virus: EC ... Xinhua, China - 3 hours ago 29 (Xinhuanet) -- European Commission (EC) spokesman Philip Tod said on Monday that the suspected cases of seagulls affected with H5N1 virus in Finland were ... A Fatal Flight To Europe? TIME EU Says Finnish Seagull Didn't Have Deadly Strain of Bird Flu Bloomberg Dr. Bill Elliott: Bird flu has potential to be pandemic Marin Independent-Journal I-Newswire.com (press release) - I-Newswire.com (press release) - all 92 related

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Major Migratory Bird FlywaysQuiplashr's Photos

Quiplashr posted a photo:

Note the overlap (in Alaska) between the Pacific and East Asia/Australasia flyways. This is how scientists believe avian-flu-infected migrating birds will transfer the H5N1 influenza virus to North American birds.
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More pictures, articles and links at the Avian Flu Watch ... Educate yourself. There's still time.

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Vogelgrippe und die finnische RegierungSide Effects

Das in Finnland aufgetauchte Virus in einer Möwe sei für Menschen nicht gefährlich, argumentiert der finnische Chefveterinär Matti Aho heute, Samstag, auf den Internetseiten des Landwirtschaftsministeriums, es stehe eindeutig fest, dass der auch für Menschen gefährliche Virenstamm der Krankheit noch nicht in Europa angekommen sei.
Dem Ministerium zufolge besteht derzeit der Verdacht, dass im Norden des Landes Möwen an der Vogelgrippe (H5N1) erkrankt sind.
Seit die Krankheit zuletzt auch bei Vögeln in Russland und Kasachstan aufgetreten ist, wird eine Ausbreitung nach Europa befürchtet. Experten der Weltgesundheitsorganisation warnen davor, dass das Virus mutieren könnte und die Krankheit dann von Mensch zu Mensch übertragbar wird.
Landwirtschaftsministerium Finnland
Der Standard

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Finland?Effect Measure

If this is Friday, this must be Finland. Or so H5N1 might muse, on its way to Europe via the northern route. Or not.

Yesterday Finland's Agriculture Ministry was looking into possible bird flu in seagulls in a country with an 800 mile border with Russia on one side and borders with Sweden, Norway and the Baltic on the other.

"As a result of a monitoring programme in Finland, we have now made an initial finding of a possible bird flu virus in a seagull," the ministry said in a statement. "The studies are ongoing and a final result will come in three weeks." (Reuters via Eircomnet)

At the moment, the Finns are assuming it is not Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 but a Low Pathogenic variety (LPAI), not uncommon in wild birds. Based on prior probabilities, the assumption that it is LPAI is reasonable, while based on the downside risk that it is H5N1, making an announcement and taking immediate steps is also reasonable.

Despite the Thursday pronouncement in Brussels by EU veterinarians that the presence of H5N1 in Central Asia was "not a direct threat for Europe and there is no need for general emergency actions", most knowledgeable observers believe the virus is almost certain to make its way to Europe. Sooner or later.

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Civet surprise(?)Effect Measure

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A/H5N1frank - today is someday

Was aussieht wie'n elitärer "Häggercode" könnte bald in aller Munde sein.
Sollte es wirklich ganz schlimm kommen, dann im wahrsten Sinne des Wortes.

A/H5N1 ist derzeit der aggressivste Erreger unter der Vogelgrippe, und irgendwie hat er Ambitionen die Pest der 21. Jahrhundert zu werden.
Wenn ich mich recht erinnere, hat man dies von AIDS damals zwar auch behauptet, ist aber so zum Glück nicht eingetreten, denn es ist der kleine aber feine Unterschied. Dieser Erregertyp ist nur, so weit ich weiß, von Mensch-zu-Mensch übertragbar. Soll natürlich jetzt nicht heißen, dass man es auf die leichte Schulter nehmen soll... nichts desto trotz ist mit dieser Krankheit nicht zu spassen!

A/H5N1 ist anscheinend, wenn man den großen Medien Glauben schenken darf, vom Tier auf den Menschen übertragbar. Dazu siehe auch den Bericht vom Auswärtigen Amt, bzw. FR-Rundschau Dossiers. Gegebenenfalls Suchmaschine Deiner Wahl anwerfen.
Zurück...
Und hier wird's "putzig". Wenn wie damals, die Menschen sich von den Ratten mit der Pest angesteckt haben, ja die sanitären/hygienischen Umstände dieser Zeit waren u.a. auch weit schlechter als unsere aktuellen, soll(te) es nicht bedeuten, dass Vögel (Enten, Hühner, Tauben, Möwen, ...) es heute nicht schaffen, wie die Ratten damals, die Menschheit zu infizieren.

Global und um einiges schneller als die Pest dürfte sich dann A/H5N1 wohl oder übel ausbreiten - und die Menschheit etwas dezimieren.
Natürliche Auslese könnte man meinen... Ich hoffe mal nicht!

Lesetipp (Thriller) zu dieser Problematik - allerdings um die Pest handelnd: Fred Vargas - Fliehe weit und schnell

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Kiểm soát cúm gia cầm: Nói vậy nhưng không phải vậyIn_depth reports

Nguy cơ tái bùng phát dịch cúm gia cầm và lây nhiễm H5N1 sang người tại Việt Nam là rất cao theo đánh giá của Bộ Nông Nghiệp Phát Triển Nông Thôn. Tuy vậy Báo Thanh Niên Điện Tử vừa có bài viết gây chấn động dư luận về công tác kiểm soát vận chuyển gà vịt, giết mổ và kiểm dịch tại TP.HCM.

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Pandemic Concerns for H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Finlandelement115

H5N1 in Scandinavian countries would be particularly dangerous. In 2003 there was an outbreak of H7N7 in the Netherlands. Over 30 million birds were culled. However H5N7 isolates were found, indicting H7N7 had reassorted with H5N2. Reassortment, or swapping of whole genes, happens during dual infections, when the same host is infected with two different viruses. The H5N7 isolated in 2003 from a mallard duck in Denmark was novel and signaled new genetic combinations between H5 and H7 viruses.

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August 27-28 Flu UpdateThe Coming Influenza Pandemic?

Point one. A civet is not a cat. My apologies.

The Chicago Tribune has the civet story today.

The Finnish Gulls are suspected to have bird flu, although the Finns continue to say it was LPAI.

The Financial Times of London has the skinny on what stocks can be expected to do if the bird flu hits--hint: sell your airline and travel stocks.

The Sunday Times points out--as we did here some time ago--that elites in theUK government are slated to get scarce Tamiflu.

The Sunday Times has another story--nothing new--laying out the nearly inevitable steps.

The Independent has a couple of interesting bird flu stories. The first compares flu to BSE, which caused a massive upheaval in the nation. The article criticizes what it sees as the government's repeating of the "false reassurance" policy from BSE. In the second, an on-the-scene reporter says there isn't enough petrol to burn the birds in Siberia.

The United Arab Emiates is certainly on the ball.

Italy is clamping down on its borders to attempt to keep the bird flu out. (Stage One of the Osterholm scenario....see "We're Screwed."

The Sunday Herald (Glasgow) has an intelligent, must-read on the vaccine situation, and how the US vaccine will be difficult to ship around the world. Among the reasons are (emphasis added):

US scientists are genetically modifying H5N1 to “remove the lethal features” and then injecting it into embryos to extract antigens. Tests have been carried out on humans and the drug appears to provide immunity. However, all this scientific endeavour could be futile. If H5N1 mutates when it starts to pass between humans directly, the American vaccine will be useless . Even if the new vaccine did work against human-to-human bird flu, the WHO warns it will still take “ possibly years” before it is available to patients. Also, until the USA stockpiles enough of the drug to protect its own population, America is unlikely to distribute the drug to the rest of the world. That’s not inhumanity on the part of the US, says the WHO any country on earth would do the same.

The USA could pass the science behind the new vaccine to the rest of the world ... but every country in receipt of the technology would have to first master it, develop the drug, test it, regulate it and license it – and that will take a very long time. Also, the quantity of antigens being produced for the new vaccine is very low. For every dose of this new vaccine, doctors need up to 12 times the amount of antigens that are required for regular flu vaccines. Two jabs are also needed, rather than one. “We are really talking about years before Joe Smith in New York can go to his health clinic and get a shot for avian flu,”says a WHO spokesperson.

On a similar point, ProMed has this on a recent study released by the WHO on the genetics of the flu. Note the following mod comment (Emphasis added):

Perhaps one of the most significant aspects of this analysis is the finding that antigenic drift is occurring and that some recent isolates are distinguishable from virus isolates that were chosen as the candidate vaccine antigens. This identifies a need for continued surveillance of poultry for the appearance of antigenic variants which may compromise the effectiveness of the current vaccine under development. A rolling program of vaccine development may be required to take account of possible changes in the antigenicity of the virus.

The Sunday Herald (Glasgow) also warns that crossing fingers won't help.

Flu gets a little ink in Galveston.

Recombinomics on the situation in Finland and in Bulgaria.

Effect Measure on Finland.

Effect Measure on the civets--look closely, I think he said they were cats!

You will recall the challenge on Promed which said that dead birds don't migrate, and the charge to find one sick bird actually migrating. Some responses are here.

ProMed notes that the Finnish claim of LPAI does have some merit to it.

Another farm in Japan is H5N1 positive. (ProMed)

Crofsblog has a story on nine unexplained deaths in Nepal, consistent with Spanish Flu symptoms.

Crofsblog has this on WAPO saying that the US is tripling quarantine at the borders, and then notes an inherent problem with this approach.

Crofsblog has an NPR interview with Margaret Chan on WHO.

Russia is saying that it could have caught the bird flu earlier, with more money.

Recombinomics has the story of concerns about two types of flu circulating in Europe, and the chances of them combining.

Recombinomics says the pandemic is looming, and notes that the reservoir of flu in healthy birds could be a problem for years to come.

No real link, but in conclusion, Crofsblog has pointed us to the coverage of the hurricane in New Orleans, which I have watched all evening. Let's watch how a society provides food and water in the midst of a crisis.

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August 26 flu UpdateThe Coming Influenza Pandemic?

The EU has its conclusions on the bird flu meetings. This is the kind of document that can be really painful later.

It considers that taking into account the existing knowledge on the migratory routes of the species of birds proceeding from central and western Asia and that might pose a risk of spreading the H5N1 avian influenza virus into the EU, the immediate risk of introduction of AI via these birds is probably remote or low (this also depends on the different areas of the EU).

As if in counterpoint, Finland is reporting it might have a dead seagull from bird flu, though they say its LPAI.

Recombinomics on the Finland story.

ProMed praises Finland for rapid response and surveillance.

Germans say they have a flu test that gives results in hours.

In China, officials are now saying that bird flu is more dangerous than SARS.

The Asian Development Bank has approved US$38M to Vietnam for fighting the bird flu.

The EU is looking into whether the Dutch flu moves (keeping chickens inside) violated EU regulations, since, apparently, animal health is an EU matter. Also, there was problems with using the "free range" label.

A nice editorial on the flu from UAE--this guy is ahead of many prominent MSM observers.

Here's a transcript of a radio show in Australia talking about the bird flu in Europe. Note, as always, the confidence of the government bureaucrat.

Manchester is preparing for the flu.

Meanwhile, health officials in Manchester are urging people to ignore "scare tactics" about drug shortages during a flu pandemic, and not to buy Tamiflu over the Internet.

As if in counterpoint, here's a very interesting story about Australian Nobel Laureate Peter Doherty. He has a new book called "the Beginners Guide to Winning the Nobel Prize." He says he is asked often about the bird flu. Here is his answer, emphasis added:

The question he is most asked now is whether bird flu is going to cross over to humans and become the killer pandemic many scientists fear.

Here science fails. It's a roll of the dice, he admits. He quotes figures estimating that 70 million lives could be at risk if the virus does mutate to allow rampant human to human transmission — a circumstance many of his peers fear is inevitable.

The toll was at least 40 million when the last flu pandemic struck in 1918, when the world population was about a third of its present size and did not have aircraft to help its spread.

He suggests people should consider asking their doctor for a script for the antiviral flu medication Tamiflu — the drug governments around the world are stockpiling against a catastrophic influenza outbreak.

He always has his vial of Tamiflu — his $56 "insurance policy" — on hand. Should everyone be hoarding a stash? "It depends how scared you are. But if the flu epidemic hits, the Tamiflu will run out fast."

Hong Kong is viewed as crucial to containing bird flu by this expert.

A month late, a Thai paper is informing its readers that major journals say the flu can be contained.

The Mirror on the bird flu---"Are our lives in Danger?"

The Telegraph (UK) has a Q&A on the bird flu.

CIDRAP on the civets, from yesterday. Civets are cats, and it represents a jump to mammals, though not the first.

ProMed on the civets--"interesting, but not surprising."

WHO experts are going to Mongolia to study bird flu there. Recombinomics covers it.

ProMed has another of a series of what seem to be regular updates from Russia. If only China was this transparent.

Via Crofsblogs, we have an analysis for a flu pandemic on European economies.

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August 26, 2005

Role of specific hemagglutinin amino acids in the immunogenicity and protection of H5N1 influenza virus vaccines.H5N1

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Somewhat perverseEU Referendum

We have written so many times about the appalling ignorance of the mainstream media so often that yet another example should come as no surprise.

But, in its pronouncements on avian 'flu in its editorial today, The Telegraph really does take the biscuit.

Headed, "EU is right to get into a flap over avian flu", it goes on to say, of the commission, that "it is entirely right and proper that the strain should be closely monitored and the commission kept fully informed, not least with regard to the remote but real possibility of mutation into a deadly human influenza."

"It is usually appropriate to question, even to ridicule, the European Union and its institutions," The Telegraph continues, "and this newspaper has never shrunk from subjecting them to the derision they deserve." It then adds, "in this case, however, the commission would appear to be acting with measured common sense, and soberly fulfilling its role in effecting a co-ordinated response to the risk of a cross-border outbreak of disease - one of the few roles, in fact, in which it can actually be of use."

"Too often in the past," it concludes, "the EU has acted with inefficiency and sloth, then over-reacted when taken by surprise. If the commission now seems to be planning precipitately for something that might never happen, we should not complain."

Actually, we should complain. The present “flap” over the avian ’flu strain H5N1 has been brought about by a report from Kazakstan of the death of 14,000 birds there, indicating that the virus has broken out of its reservoir in China and is possibly heading our way.

What the Telegraph report does not say – although some do – is that the birds affected are geese, which is unusual to say the very least. Avian 'flu notoriously does not kill geese, which carry the virus unaffected and thence act in spreading the disease to susceptible birds. Therefore, the possibility is that the Kazakstan outbreak is not avian 'flu at all, or that the H5N1 strain has mutated in a unique way that has made it even more problematical.

While this is speculation, that itself brings up another vital point. To date – as far as we understand - no copy of the virus has been isolated from the Kazakstan outbreak and made available to Western scientists for study, which means our knowledge of the behaviour of the virus is extremely limited and we are unable to confirm in any way the nature of the threat to which we are potentially exposed.

If the international system was working at all well, there should be enormous pressure being brought to bear on the Russians to release a copies of the virus so that scientists across the world can get to work. So far, from the commission, we have heard nothing of this.

Thirdly, and closer to home, the diagnostic tests for avian 'flu virus are, to put it mildly, are "crude". The strain typing does not discriminate between relatively mild and benign forms of the virus and those which are highly pathogenic, making the response uncertain potentially giving rise to false alarms and unnecessary losses. That is something the commission and our own government should be addressing.

Altogether, therefore, the commission's response has been wholly inadequate and, more to the point – and typical of the beast – it has been keeping quite about serious inadequacies in the monitoring system which it should be addressing. It seems to me that the commission is indeed acting with its usual level of "inefficiency and sloth". For the Telegraph to be so fulsome in its praise, therefore, is somewhat perverse.

COMMENT THREAD

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Just another irrelevant leftist plan: flu vaccines (2005-08-26)Bondage.com Forums -- Other Topics Category

http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article308240.ece[quote]It is inevitable that migrating birds will spread avian flu across Europe, one of Britain's leading veterinary scientists said yesterday.
"Wild birds that have migratory pathways over Europe and the UK will become infected. It is inevitable bird flu will be carried to this country by migrating birds," Dr McCracken, the president of the British Veterinary Association, said.
Debbie Reynolds, the Government's chief vet, said ... "There is a constant, low-level risk of a low-pathogenic strain being introduced, but there is no evidence that the highly pathogenic virus is spread by migrating birds."
Although mass deaths of migrating birds have been reported in China and in Russia east of the Ural mountains, it is possible they have been cross-infected by domestic poultry, she said. Birds infected with the H5N1 strain were probably too ill to travel very far, she explained.[/quote]Yesterday's article on the subject: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/environment/article307987.ece[quote] Senior scientists have advised the Government against a mass cull of wild birds because it would prove ineffective in stemming the spread of the virus to poultry. Instead they have emphasised the importance of knowing whether the H5N1 virus is present in the wild.
So far there have only been a few instances of transmission between people but the greatest fear is that a more transmissible virus will evolve that could cause a pandemic of a highly lethal strain of human influenza.[/quote]Serious science publication's page of relevant stuff: http://www.nature.com/nature/focus/avianflu/index.html
There are items in there about it appearing in pigs. The [i]Indy[/i] says there are fears it may mix with other strains in pigs and produce a super-strain that way. Are you scared yet?

Here's an article with a repost of a fake weblog on the subject:
http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050523/full/435399a.html[quote]Repeated warnings about the international community's failure to respond to the pandemic threat have fallen on deaf ears. So in our opening News Feature, we use the benefit of fictional hindsight to throw the issues into starker relief, describing a future pandemic through the weblog of a journalist in the thick of things. This is fiction, but not fantasy — the storyline was drawn up in consultation with those who could soon be dealing with the situation for real.[/quote]

That weblog: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v435/n7041/full/435400a.html[quote]Ready, my ass! I've reported on avian flu for almost a decade. The first thing I did on hearing Bush's address ...[/quote]There ya go, a shot at Bush. Several of you can now safely stop reading and forget all about this.
[quote]The team has a web video conference via a high-bandwidth satellite connection with WHO headquarters in Geneva. Its Department of Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response is coordinating the international response. Poor guys, there's just a handful of them.

Computer models predict that if we do this, we might just stop the pandemic in its tracks. But there hasn't been enough modelling, and now we're doing the experiment for real.

Continued modelling will be vital, though, to work out how to deploy the limited supplies of Tamiflu we've got, and how long we need to treat people for the drug to work. Geneva informs us that the WHO international stockpile contains just 120,000 pills. WHO officials have been on the phone today with countries that have national stockpiles.

The politicians know that stopping the pandemic at source would be the best solution. But they're reluctant to donate drugs, as they'll have less for their own citizens if this approach fails. No point asking the United States — they've only got enough pills for 1% of the population. Britain and France have enough for a quarter of their populations. Will they spare us any? Will they hell.

Geneva announces that the latest epidemiological studies say that the virus seems to have a 'basic reproductive number', or R0, of between 1.4 and 2.0. This means that one case on average infects only one or two people. So if we can detect cases quickly and treat them and their contacts, the models suggest we could contain the virus most of the time. At the least, that might slow the pandemic and corral it in that region for a few months. That would win time to get a vaccine.

But we know there is a very short window. As time goes by, this virus will get better and better at transmitting between humans, and the R0 will increase. If it goes above 3, there's no way we'll contain it.[/quote]The [i]Indy[/i] yesterday had something along the lines of "by the time we get an outbreak in Britain, it's too late to stop it."

Just to throw in everybody's favourite numbers: 10,000 times as many fatalities as 9/11.

[size=1]Everyone loves the death counts.[/size=1]

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Buitenland: Mogelijk geval van vogelgriep ontdekt in FinlandNieuws.nl - Verzameld nieuws

(Novum/AP) - In het noorden van Finland is een meeuw ontdekt met de symptomen van de vogelgriep. Dat hebben de Finse autoriteiten vrijdag bekendgemaakt. Tests moeten uitwijzen of de meeuw daadwerkelijk is besmet met het virus. Als bij de meeuw het vogelgriepvirus H5N1 wordt aangetroffen, is het het ... Lees verder..

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Molekulares ImpfstoffbastelnSide Effects

Der beste Schutz vor einer Pandemie ist die Schutzimpfung. In Vietnam, China und anderen Gebieten Südostasiens, wo das Vogelgrippevirus H5N1 Haus- und Wildgeflügel befallen hat, werden Millionen von Tieren geimpft.
Die dazu verwendeten Impfstoffe sind für den Menschen indessen nicht geeignet. Das grassierende H5N1-Virus ist nicht in derselben Form auf Menschen übertragbar wie von Gans oder Huhn zu Ente. Ausserdem muss damit gerechnet werden, dass sich der Erreger, der von Mensch zu Mensch übertragen wird, verändert, ehe er sich mit einem A-Virus zusammen tut.
Der Grippeimpfstoff, der von der WHO ausgegeben und mit dem ältere und geschwächte Menschen auch in diesem Herbst geimpft werden, vermag vor Vogelgrippe nicht schützen. Allerdings meint die WHO, dass es sinnvoll wäre, wenn sich Menschen, die mit Geflügel zu tu haben, mit dem normalen Impfstoff gegen Grippe schützten; das nämlich könnte unter Umständen verhindern, dass der Mensch zum Mischgefäss für ein A-Virus mit einem H5N1 Virus würde.
Unzählige Forscher versuchen herauszufinden, wie die HA-Struktur molekular auszusehen hat, damit sie einen starken Immunschutz gegen H5N1-Viren auszulösen vermag. Sie beobachteten, dass man in Immunisierungsversuchen mit verschiedenen H5-Strukturen zwar die Bildung von Antikörpern anregen konnte, diese die entscheidende Kontaktstruktur des Erregers aber nicht oder zu wenig blockierten. Amerikanische Wissenschaftler haben mit Hilfe einer als Reverse Genetik bezeichneten Technik durch den Austausch jeweils einer einzelnen Aminosäure in der HA-Struktur eine H5-Variante gefunden, die bei Frettchen eine deutlich bessere Immunantwort gegen die HA-Struktur eines Vietnam-Virusstammes auslöste als alle anderen H5-Strukturen.
Ob ein brauchbarer Impfstoff, der tatsächlichen Schutz bieten wird, produziert werden kann, ehe H5N1 mutieren oder sich mit einem A-Virus vermischen kann, ist fraglich.
Es ist vorerst wohl klüger und sicherer, auf Tamiflu® von Roche zu setzen.

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More H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Sverdlovsk In Russia? - Recombinomics

More H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Sverdlovsk In Russia? Recombinomics, PA - Aug 23, 2005 ... Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk provinces in western Siberia at the base of the Ural mountains provides more evidence of a western migration of H5N1 wild bird flu ...

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Civet cats killed by bird flu in Vietnam - Khaleej Times

Civet cats killed by bird flu in Vietnam Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates - 8 hours ago HANOI - Vietnam’s Wild Animal Health Bureau has issued a warning after three civet cats that died earlier this year tested positive for the H5N1 strain of ... Bird flu kills Vietnam civet cats BBC News Bird flu spreads to new species Globe and Mail Vietnam finds rare civets died of bird flu TODAYonline Reuters - all 13 related

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Finland reports possible case of avian flu; unlikely to be feared ... - Canada.com

Finland reports possible case of avian flu; unlikely to be feared ... Canada.com, Canada - 1 hour ago ... Finland (AP) - A suspected case of avian flu has been found in northern Finland, but authorities said Friday they doubt it is the feared H5N1 strain that ... Possible case of bird flu in Finland Ireland Online CHRONOLOGY-Key dates in Asian bird flu outbreak Reuters AlertNet H5N1 seen spreading Bangkok Post all 19 related

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German scientists cut bird-flu test time to hours - Expatica

ITN

German scientists cut bird-flu test time to hours Expatica, Netherlands - 1 hour ago ... scientists said Friday they have developed a laboratory test for bird flu that reduces from days to hours the amount of time needed to detect the H5N1 virus in ... Flu facts and concerns Telegraph.co.uk Infection getting out of control Guardian Unlimited World slow to face bird flu threat BBC News Independent - Sify - all 12 related

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World slow to face bird flu threat

... confirmation that the H5N1 bird flu virus has become capable of human-to-human transmission will send.... The majority of those are wealthy western nations - not the Asian countries where the H5N1... are unlikely to be entirely equipped to quell an outbreak of a mutated form of H5N1. An effective vaccine ...

Medical Health

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26 Aug 2005 - 女人，命好苦﹗

... IMG IMG IMG IMG 我認為，做女人真的很苦，因為： 小時候，女生說話銳利點，會被稱為「鐵嘴雞」。 (你可曾聽過男生被安上這個稱號？) 長得稍為胖一點，又會被說像只「豬」。 腦袋轉速略為慢一點，更被稱為「豬頭」。 (看，還只有頭，連身體都沒有。) 什麼 H5N1，豬鏈球菌，通通都要跟女生扯上關係。 到漸漸長大了，每個月又要應付痛不欲生的數天， (這是經痛，男人，你懂嗎？) 搞不好還會引發「陰道炎」或其他疾病。 如果月事遲遲不來，又要開始擔心。 到處去找醫生看是否有什麼毛病， 或是去買驗孕棒檢查是否懷孕。 (買的時候還得遭受白眼，被人家在背後說不檢點 ...

並沒有什麼特別吸引人的地方。Nancy小分享，有空來探我！

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August 25, 2005

Magneto-Sphere

Flight404’s latest Magneto-Sphere (built in Processing) combines metaballs, gravity, and a self organizing network of magnetic nodes to create a tantalizing organic display of attraction and repulsion. [video]

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Cooping chickens no guarantee of safety: experts - Edmonton Sun

Reuters India

Cooping chickens no guarantee of safety: experts Edmonton Sun, Canada - 8 hours ago ... In the wake of news that migratory birds appear to have transported the H5N1 avian influenza strain to parts of Russia, European governments are boosting ... Scientists fear pigs may play role in bird flu Guardian Unlimited Flu fears could force free-range poultry indoors Financial Times Wild geese Times Online Reuters AlertNet - all 11 related

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Chirac vows to protect against bird flu

AP Wire reports that Chirac vows to protect against bird flu.

"No obstacle, notably economic or financial, will get in the way of useful measures to protect the health of the French people," Chirac said at a Cabinet meeting, according to [government spokesman Jean-François] Cope.

Well, it's a consoling promise, but Chirac has raised a very big question: If and when a pandemic breaks out, and the economy breaks down, who carries the cost? Do workers go without salaries? Do businesses go broke? Will hospitals shut down if tax revenues can't pay for them?

After 25 years of "government is the problem" rhetoric and free-market theology, a pandemic will demand enormous government intervention and support in the economies of the world. Even if the cost means huge deficits and long-term debts, the alternative would be costlier still.

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EU experts assess avian flu risk

Via CNN.com, we learn that EU experts assess bird flu risk.

But don't expect anything to actually happen:

The EU already has a ban in place on imports of Russian poultry, but officials indicated Thursday's meeting was unlikely to advise farmers across the bloc to bring chickens indoors, as the Netherlands has already done.

It will seek to heighten awareness of the potential risks however.

I guess the kindest interpretation is that the experts are trying to ratchet up public anxiety to the point where the politicians, feeling a little heat, order the chicken farmers to get their birds indoors, or else.

If anyone has found a detailed analysis of the likely effect of avian flu on the farm economies of affected nations, I'd be grateful for a link to it. Even if not a single additional human comes down with avian flu, this is already a serious economic blow to countries from Vietnam to the Netherlands.

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Role of specific hemagglutinin amino acids in the immunogenicity and protection of H5N1 influenza virus vaccines.

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Balkans may be bird flu gateway to wider Europe. (BIRDFLU-BALKANS) 2005-08-25 10:10:42

By Michael Winfrey

SOFIA, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Birds heading south for the winter from Siberia may carry a deadly strain of avian flu to the Balkan peninsula and mingle with other flocks from northern Europe, experts said on Thursday.

Millions of birds migrate each year to Black Sea neighbours Romania and Bulgaria for the milder winter climate, making the area a potential gateway to central Europe for the bird flu virus, which has already swept into Russia from southeast Asia.

Samuel Jutzi, head of the United Nations agency in charge of monitoring and controlling the flu, said its quick spread indicated migratory birds may be able to carry it over long distances and that it could reach the Balkans in a few months.

“Knowing the flyways and the bird species that use them, there is a high likelihood that the virus will continue to spread as it has so far,” Jutzi, Director of the Animal and Production and Health Division of the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, told Reuters.

“Particularly in the southeastern part of the Balkans, given that these flyways go down there ... It is quite probable in the future and is a major concern for us."

The European Commission has said there is a relatively low risk of migratory birds spreading the virus but has banned poultry products from Russia and Kazakhstan.

One strain of bird flu potentially dangerous to humans, H5N1, has decimated flocks of poultry in southeast Asia and has killed more than 50 people over the past two years.

H5N1 has been officially registered in six Russian regions in Siberia and the Urals, and has also been confirmed in neighbouring Kazakhstan.

Experts fear the strain, which has killed around half of the people who contract it, could mutate into a variation easily spread among humans and spark a pandemic that could kill tens of millions of people.

EUROPE’S LARGEST WETLANDS

Lakes and rivers along the Black Sea coast ranging from Ukraine to northern Turkey attract millions of birds each winter from an area stretching from northern Russia to Scandinavia.

Europe’s largest wetlands, Romania’s Danube delta, and lakes in northern Bulgaria, are popular among flocks of red-breasted geese from Siberia as well as white-fronted geese from Scandinavia, Poland, and Germany.

“There is a risk of spreading the deadly strain of flu to local wildlife if any of them is infected,” said Boris Barov, head of Bulgarian Society for Protection of Birds.

Jutzi said countries in southeast Europe may lack the capacity to detect and deal with a widespread outbreak.

Bulgaria and Romania are two of Europe’s poorest countries.

“They are presumably less prepared to detect and react early and also to put into place the necessary movement controls on poultry to really reduce the virus’s spread,” Jutzi said. “That is of quite substantial concern to us."

Both countries have banned the import of wild and domestic birds from Russia and Kazakhastan. Bulgaria introduced a monitoring programme for early detection of bird flu in 2002, and Romania carries out random testing in the Danube delta.

So far they have detected no cases.

“We are closely watching the situation and are in contact with neighbouring countries and World Organisation for Animal Health. We are ready to react,” said Georgi Georgiev, a scientist with Bulgarian Veterinary Institute.

(Additional reporting by Tsvetelia Ilieva in Sofia and Radu Marinas in Bucharest)

REUTERS Reut14:11 08-25-05

Copyright: (c) TWP, AP, Reuters, others as appropriate

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Russia steps up measures to contain bird flu. (BIRDFLU-RUSSIA) 2005-08-25 08:22:26

By Aleksandras Budrys

MOSCOW, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Russia is stepping up measures to contain the spread of the deadly bird flu virus amid signs the outbreak is stabilising, Russia’s chief epidemiologist said on Thursday, but Kazakhstan said it was probing possible new cases.

“Deaths of wild fowl continue to occur, although less intensively,” Gennady Onishchenko, head of Russia’s state consumer rights watchdog and top epidemiologist, told reporters.

“In Russia, we intend to keep the current situation within the existing framework, and will try to reduce the affected area through culling all domestic birds until wild fowl leave the country."

He said birds would start migrating from Russia from the second half of September.

The H5N1 strain, which is potentially dangerous to humans, has been officially registered in six Russian regions in Siberia and the Urals, causing the deaths of nearly 14,000 wild and domestic fowl.

Onishchenko said epidemiologists were still trying to establish whether deaths of wild fowl in a seventh region, the Caspian republic of Kalmykia, were caused by bird flu.

He played down a report that bird flu had been found in a wild duck shot in yet another region, saying that practically all wild ducks might carry some strain of the virus but that it may not necessarily be the strain dangerous to humans.

Bird flu has also spread to neighbouring Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday it was treating the deaths of around a dozen wildfowl in the south of the country as suspicious and was testing the animals.

Seven villages in the north of the sprawling Central Asian state have been quarantined after an outbreak of H5N1.

A spokesman said the dead birds, ducks and gulls, had been found in the Almaty Region near Lake Alakol on the Chinese border, 380 km (240 miles) northeast of the biggest city Almaty.

“Our specialists have taken materials and sent them to the laboratory,” he said.

MASS CULL

Russia has culled some 130,000 domestic birds since July 21, when the first reports of the flu appeared.

Onishchenko said a quarantine had been lifted from nine out of 91 affected localities, in which all domestic birds had been destroyed and no new deaths of wild fowl had been registered. He said the quarantine would be lifted in more areas next week.

No cases of human infection have been registered so far, but the country had to be prepared for the possibility, Onishchenko said. H5N1 has killed at least 50 people in Asia since 2003.

Onishchenko said health authorities would supply equipment for detecting the H5N1 virus in humans to medical laboratories throughout the country.

The authorities also plan to vaccinate more people this year to protect against annual outbreaks of human influenza that sweep Russia in winter.

“We normally vaccinate some 20 million people. I hope this year we will have more due to bird flu fears,” Onishchenko said.

(Additional reporting by Raushan Nurshayeva in Kazakhstan)

REUTERS Reut12:22 08-25-05

Copyright: (c) TWP, AP, Reuters, others as appropriate

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August 24, 2005

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Migration In Russia Kazakhstan Mongolia - Recombinomics

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Migration In Russia Kazakhstan Mongolia Recombinomics, PA - 16 hours ago ... All reports of H5N1 virus in wild birds so far appear to be from dead ones. Has anyone, anywhere, actually found a healthy wild ...

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Bird flu killer product to hit market soon - China Daily

Bird flu killer product to hit market soon China Daily, China - 18 hours ago ... empty coops only. Researchers say CAIQ-1 can kill H5N1, the virus that causes avian flu and circulates among birds worldwide. It can ... UNPRECEDENTED WIDESPREAD OUTBREAKS OF AVIAN INFLUENZA Wiener Zeitung all 3 related

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M2 Markers Signal Poor H5N1 Surveillance in Southeast Asia - Recombinomics

M2 Markers Signal Poor H5N1 Surveillance in Southeast Asia Recombinomics, PA - 3 hours ago The paper "Evolution of H5N1 Avian Influenza Viruses in Asia" was published ahead of the October, 2005 publication by the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance ...

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How long do the negative consequences of flu epidemics last?

There has been a recent study of the 1918-1919 flu.  It turns out that the pandemic affected health outcomes for many decades to follow.  Here is the abstract:

In the 1960-1980 Decennial U.S. Census data, cohorts in utero during the height of the Pandemic typically display reduced educational attainment, increased rates of physical disability, lower income, lower socioeconomic status, as well as accelerated adult mortality compared with other birth cohorts. In addition, persons born in states with more severe exposure to the Pandemic experienced worse outcomes than those born in states with less severe Pandemic exposures. These results demonstrate that investments aimed at improving fetal health can have substantial long-term effects on subsequent health and economic outcomes.

Thanks to Alex Tabarrok for the pointer, his post contains a lengthier and interesting discussion of the 1918-1919 pandemic.

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Marketplace Health ManagementPSoTD

One of the biggest problems with letting a marketplace manage itself?

Hoarding.

North American sales of the drug oseltamivir have more than tripled in recent months, a trend public health experts see as evidence individuals are stockpiling the once little-used antiviral as a hedge against a possible flu pandemic.

With similar reports emerging in other countries as well, a leading advocate for pandemic preparedness is concerned public demand could soon outstrip the limited global supply.

And what happens when supply can't meet demand in that marketplace?

"We are on a collision course to panic," warns Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"I think that what's going to happen is . . . that this drug - which has yet to really be demonstrated to have any clinical impact on H5N1 infection - is now going to become the 'I can't get product, therefore I must have it right away product.'

"The reality is going to come through that there is only so much available."

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Миграция вируса птичьего гриппа повышает вероятность пандемии"Вашингтонский файл" на русском

Обнаружение опасной формы птичьего гриппа в России и Казахстане привело к гибели или уничтожению почти 130 тыс. птиц и повышает вероятность инфицирования людей смертельно опасным штаммом, предупреждает Всемирная организация здравоохранения (ВОЗ).Россия и Казахстан впервые обнаружили это заболевание у птиц в июле, а в августе было подтверждено присутствие штамма H5N1. Этот вирус, распространяющийся по Юго-Восточной Азии с 2003 года, представляет собой высокопатогенный штамм вируса птичьего гриппа, от которого уже погибло более 150 млн. птиц.

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August 22 Flu UpdateThe Coming Influenza Pandemic?

While scientists in Britain are urging careful consideration of bird flu measures taken in Holland, the government is staying the course.

Reuters has this story on US safeguards against the bird flu, which could be a little overconfident.

"I think biosecurity has been ratcheted up to a high level. It is very hard to get on farms these days," said Richard Lobb, spokesman for the National Chicken Council.

Does this count a dome to keep migratory fowl out?

Bird flu was found on another Japanese farm.

ProMed on the Japanese report, noting the new outbreak is 44 miles from the previous outbreak.

The EU says it thinks the risk from migratory fowl is low.

Russia reports no registered human cases of bird flu.

More bad economic news...in UAE, pet shops are suffering.

Meanwhile, a UAE medical study says bird flu is a risk.

Klaus Stohr was in Bangkok, where he delivered a stark and bleak assessment of the world's preperation for the bird flu.

Taiwan is preparing to fight the bird flu.

Ongoing news about imminent (not long-range) shortages of Tamiflu, whose sales are skyrocketing.

"We are on a collision course to panic," warns Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"I think that what's going to happen is . . . that this drug - which has yet to really be demonstrated to have any clinical impact on H5N1 infection - is now going to become the 'I can't get product, therefore I must have it right away product.'

"The reality is going to come through that there is only so much available."

Financial Times--rapidly gaining in the MSM flu rankings--has the tale of two drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza.

CIDRAP has the growing news that wild bird flu is gaining a foothold (or a clawhold) in Mongolia.

Recombinomics asks if the bird flu is being covered up in India.

Recombinomics on confirmed wild bird flu in Russia.

ProMed on more reports from Siberia that still don't answer the questions. The final anonymous mod question is good. All of the sampling is of dead birds, which do not migrate. It asks if anyone has found a healthy, migrating bird that is capable of shedding HPAI?

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L'HÉCATOMBE À NOS PORTES?La Levée !

L'épidémie de la grippe aviaire

class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> L’organisation mondiale de la santé et plusieurs autres chercheurs et observateurs craignent que la grippe aviaire ou la grippe du poulet, ou l’influenza aviaire revienne bientôt en force et qu’elle contamine des centaines de millions de personnes partout sur Terre.

Au cours des 10 prochaines semaines plus de 100 000 oies, goélands et cormorans commenceront leur migration de l’ouest de la Chine vers l’Australie.

Un nombre important de ces oiseaux migrateurs seront infectés du H5N1, une variante de la grippe aviaire qui a déjà tué 61 personnes dans le sud-ouest de l’Asie.

L’OMS craint que ce type de virus puisse se muter en une forme contagieuse dans le genre qui a tué 50 à 100 millions de personnes à l’automne de 1918.

Cette apparition de la grippe aviaire a été découverte par les Chinois à la fin du mois d’avril…et les chercheurs chinois ont été horrifiés par la virulence du virus.

L’H5N1 s’est déjà répandu jusqu’à Lhassa, la capitale du Tibet, aussi à l’ouest de la Mongolie et a même infecté des poulets à la capitale de la Sibérie, Novossibirsk.

L’épicentre humain de l’H5N1 s’agrandit aussi : à la mi-juillet un père et ses deux filles en sont morts dans une banlieue riche de Jakarta.

Ce qu’il faut retenir c’est que l’influenza aviaire est endémique et bien implanté chez les poulets de l’Asie du sud-est et se répand rapidement par les oiseaux migrateurs pour éventuellement atteindre l’ensemble de la planète au cours de la prochaine année.

Chaque nouvelle infection de l’H5N1 que ce soit parmi les canards en Sibérie, les cochons en Indonésie ou les humains au Vietnam est une nouvelle occasion pour le virus de se transformer en un tueur en série incontrôlable.

Partout sur terre les autorités de santé publique s’attendent au pire, en GB on prépare le terrain pour des morgues de masse parce qu’on s’attend à ce que 700 000 britanniques en meurent.

Encore plus inquiétant, le vaccin que l’on prévoit administrer pour contrer la nouvelle grippe aviaire n’est pas très efficace et est produit en trop petites quantités.

Faudra sans faute et le plus tôt possible que les pays riches investissent les milliards pour produire un vaccin accessible au monde entier.

Parce qu’au fur et à mesure que les oiseaux migrateurs quittent l’Asie pour l’Australie le virus va se répandre ce qui nous laisse vraiment très peu de temps.

Carpe diem chers auditeurs…

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August 23, 2005

Scientists Race To Head Off Lethal Potential Of Avian Flu (Washington Post, Tuesday, August 23, 2005; Page A01) [snag for the Av

Quiplashr posted a photo:

PHOTO Credit: Dave Darnell/Memphis Commercial-Appeal

CAPTION: Robert G. Webster, PhD. (Right) at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. Left to Right in background are David Walker , Scott Krauss and Kelly Jones. They are doing research with the avian influenza virus.

-----

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/22/...

Scientists Race To Head Off Lethal Potential Of Avian Flu

By David Brown. Washington Post Staff Writer

Tuesday, August 23, 2005; A01

Robert G. Webster is watching his 40-year-old hunch about the origin of pandemic influenza play out before his eyes. It would be thrilling if it were not so terrifying.

Four decades ago, Webster was a young microbiologist from New Zealand on a brief sojourn in London. While he was there, he did an experiment that pretty much set the course of his scientific career. In just a few hours, he showed that the microbe that swept the globe in 1957 as "Asian flu" bore an unmistakable resemblance to strains of virus carried by certain birds in the years before.

Webster's observation was a surprise -- and a troubling one. It suggested an origin of the unusually virulent strains of influenza virus that appear two or three times each century. His hunch, that at least some of these pandemic strains were hybrids of bird and human flu viruses, was correct.

Since then, Rob Webster has become arguably the world's most important eye on animal influenza viruses. These days, he is deeply worried about what he's seeing.

Strains of influenza virus known as A/H5N1 have been spreading in wild and domestic birds across Southeast Asia and China since 1996. In recent weeks, the virus has apparently struck poultry in Siberia and Kazakhstan.

Since late 2003, about 100 million domesticated birds -- mostly chickens and ducks -- either have died of the virus or have been intentionally killed to keep the viruses from spreading. But what has Webster and other experts so worried are the 112 people who have been infected with the H5N1 "bird flu," more than half of whom have died. The fatality rate of 55 percent outstrips any human flu epidemic on record, including the epochal Spanish flu of 1918 and 1919 that killed at least 50 million people.

Why this new virus is so deadly is not entirely understood, although scientists have hints.

Influenza viruses invade cells lining the throat and windpipe, where they replicate and cause inflammation but are eventually suppressed by the immune system. In some cases, the microbe invades the lungs and leads to viral or bacterial pneumonia. Some H5N1 strains, however, have two features that make them even more dangerous.

Normally, the flu viruses can replicate only in the throat and lungs. With H5N1, however, the protein that triggers replication can be activated in many other organs, including the liver, intestines and brain. What is usually a respiratory infection can suddenly become a whole-body infection. Simultaneously, a second "defect" in the virus unleashes a storm of immune-system chemicals called cytokines. In normal amounts, cytokines help fight microbial invaders. In excessive amounts, they can cause lethal damage to the body's own tissues.

The trait H5N1 has not acquired is the ability to spread easily from person to person. The 112 human cases since late 2003 may turn out to be simply rare events in a bird epidemic that will eventually subside, as all epidemics do.

What is worrisome, though, is evidence pointing the other way.

Working Full-Tilt

Webster's insight about the origins of pandemic flu led to an unavoidable conclusion. If scientists had any hope of preventing the pandemics, they had to keep watch on influenza in many species, not just human beings.

Learning how the virus is changing in birds, and what it may need to get real traction in people is what keeps the 73-year-old Webster working full-tilt at an age when many people are slowing down or have retired.

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More pictures, articles and links at the Avian Flu Watch ... Educate yourself. There's still time.

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Grippe aviaire : l'inquiétude grandit en Europe

Les Pays-Bas ont commencé hier à enfermer la totalité de leurs 6 millions de volailles élevées en plein air. Bruxelles a « refusé de céder à l'alarmisme » et a minimisé l'ampleur de l'épidémie. L'Allemagne s'interrogeait toutefois sur l'éventualité d'un projet similaire à celui de La Haye. Une réunion des experts sanitaires européens aura lieu jeudi à Bruxelles. Hier, les autorités sanitaires françaises devaient analyser la situation dans notre pays. Moscou n'a pas de confirmation de cas de grippe aviaire dans un élevage proche de la Caspienne en Kalmoukie, mais le virus H5N1 est bien présent au Kazakhstan.

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Павшие птицы в Казахстане были инфицированы вирусом гриппа, опасным д

... хозяйства Казахстана сообщило, что у всех павших домашних и диких птиц во всех семи селах республики подтвердился вирус гриппа с антигенной формулой H5N1, опасный для ...
Вспышка "птичьего гриппа" была зарегистрирована в период с конца июля по сегодняшний день в селе Голубовка Павлодарской области, в селах Виноградовка, Ушсарт Акмолинской ...

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Reuters News - Influenza aviaria confermata in Kazakistan

Reuters News
Caspico," ha aggiunto. L'influenza, che si è diffusa dalla Siberia alla vicina Russia, ha sollevato timori in Europa che la malattia si potesse diffondere nel continente scatenando un'epidemia di influenza. Sebbene il ceppo H5N1 abbia ucciso oltre 50 persone in Asia dal 2003, nessuno ne è rimasto ... Copyright: Copyright 2004, Italia OnLine S.r.l.

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FT coverage of bird flu

Today the Financial Times features a number of bird flu articles, starting with a front page story on the latest measures taken by European countries. In another article we learn that there is considerable divergence of opinion in the EU on how big of a threat bird flu is:The Netherlands yesterday ordered farmers to keep poultry inside to prevent bird flu spreading into the country.

However, the UK played down the threat posed to domestic fowl from migratory birds. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said it was not planning any measures to keep poultry indoors.In Europe, the Netherlands has most experience in dealing with the bird flu:The spread of the virus two years ago among its nearly 2,000 poultry farmers led to the slaughter of 30m animals at a cost of hundreds of millions of euros.

“Poultry farmers are very afraid that this strain will arrive in western Europe. In 2003 many farmers were hit hard by what happened and it took a lot of time for them to get going again. Nobody wants this to happen ever again,” said Klass Johan Osinga, of the LTO Dutch farmers’ union.

The Netherlands last year exported almost €500m worth of eggs, making it the seventh largest producer among the EU’s then 15 countries. In 2003 it produced nearly 600,000 tonnes of poultry meat.A separate FT article covers the latest vaccine developments:GlaxoSmithKline is gearing up to file for preliminary European regulatory approv- al by the end of this year for a pandemic flu vaccine that could be used to tackle the future spread of the lethal H5N1 virus.

The move marks an early attempt by one of the world's largest vaccine manufacturers to prepare for high-volume production in accordance with European Union regulations on pandemic flu passed in 2004.

[...] GSK is in the final stages of compiling all the necessary documentation designed to show the European Medicines Agency its technical skills and production methods in order to make subsequent authorisation of a specific vaccine easier.

The company has already run clinical trials showing successful treatment of other flu strains using its flu vaccines in combination with a common “adjuvant” designed to help further boost the response of the human immune system.

The move comes ahead of its planned launch of clinical trials early next year with a potential H5N1 flu vaccine in combination with a proprietary adjuvant, from its “AS” range, which it believes will provide it with a substantial edge over its competitors.GlaxoSmithKline currently manufactures the antiviral medicine Relenza, also reviewed in an article from today's FT.

Read the entire batch of articles in the FT, hat tip to the New Economist for the links.

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Vogelgriep in Kazachstan

ASTANA - In alle zeven dorpen in het noorden van Kazachstan waar de vogelgriep is uitgebroken, gaat het om de voor mensen gevaarlijke variant H5N1. Copyright: Copyright (c) 2005, Nederlands Dagblad

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Казахстан охватил опасный для человека птичий грипп

Это уже седьмой регион России, где у домашней птицы обнаружен штамм вируса H5N1.
... осенью из Сибири проходят через Азербайджан, Иран, Ирак, Грузию, Украину страны Средиземноморья, возможен занос вируса с мигрирующими птицами и в эти страны из России.

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More H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Sverdlovsk In Russia? - Recombinomics

More H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Sverdlovsk In Russia? Recombinomics, PA - 2 hours ago ... Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk provinces in western Siberia at the base of the Ural mountains provides more evidence of a western migration of H5N1 wild bird flu ... H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Surgut Kanti-Mansi In Russia? Recombinomics all 2 related

Posted by dymaxion at 01:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Deadly bird flu strain confirmed in Kazakh villages - Reuters.uk

Deadly bird flu strain confirmed in Kazakh villages Reuters.uk, UK - 6 hours ago ... "The H5N1 strain has been detected in ... Although the H5N1 strain has killed more than 50 people in Asia since 2003, no one has caught it in Russia or Kazakhstan. ...

Posted by dymaxion at 01:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

No windfall profit seen for bird flu vaccine firms - Reuters

No windfall profit seen for bird flu vaccine firms Reuters - 1 hour ago ... Research into a new generation of vaccines to tackle a flu pandemic -- which scientists fear will be unleashed if the current H5N1 strain mutates and spreads ...

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Growing evidence of H5N1 in Mongolia reported - CIDRAP

Growing evidence of H5N1 in Mongolia reported CIDRAP, MN - 19 hours ago Aug 22, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Wildlife researchers and Mongolian officials have reported increasing evidence that H5N1 avian influenza has infected wild birds ...

Posted by dymaxion at 01:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

First instance of avian flu (H5N1) occurring in wild migratory birds

The avian flu at Lake Erkhel may have affected only a very small number of birds at the site, according to a story on News-Medical.net.

Posted by dymaxion at 01:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Nation on watch for flu pandemic

The story in the Detroit News, Nation on watch for flu pandemic, is mostly a rehash of basic flu facts, but it does have one surprising fact in the last paragraph:

While there have been no reports of the virus being transmitted between people, British researchers reported finding the H5N1 virus in the spinal fluid of a young Vietnamese boy, indicating that the virus is mutating to the point that it can infect the human brain.

That was news to me, and I'd love to see the source.

Apart from that item, the story portrays "expert" anxiety and activity—as it should. It's all part of the public-information process. But I hope the focus on "experts" doesn't make the public relax. If people think "They're doing something about it," then individuals, groups, and institutions may think they don't have to do anything at all.

Posted by dymaxion at 01:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Infection of the endothelium by influenza viruses.

Posted by dymaxion at 01:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Downplaying Flu

... so worried are the 112 people who have been infected with the H5N1 "bird flu," more than half... or bacterial pneumonia. Some H5N1 strains, however, have two features that make them even more dangerous. Normally, the flu viruses can replicate only in the throat and lungs. With H5N1, however ...

Just a Bump in the Beltway

Posted by dymaxion at 01:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Scientists Race To Head Off Lethal Potential Of Avian Flu

... with the H5N1 "bird flu," more than half of whom have died. The fatality rate of 55 percent outstrips..., the microbe invades the lungs and leads to viral or bacterial pneumonia. Some H5N1 strains, however, have... in the throat and lungs. With H5N1, however, the protein that triggers replication can be activated ...

CALL FOR A SUMMER OF TRUTH

Posted by dymaxion at 01:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 22, 2005

Sales of flu drug soar amid pandemic worries - CTV

Sales of flu drug soar amid pandemic worries CTV, Canada - 2 hours ago ... that this drug - which has yet to really be demonstrated to have any clinical impact on H5N1 infection - is now going to become the 'I can't get product ... Antiviral sales soar amid pandemic fears Brandon Sun Virus knows no boundaries Telegraph.co.uk Flu drug sales rocket Toronto Sun all 13 related

Posted by dymaxion at 11:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Australian ports to be closed if flu strikes

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, Australia will close all its seaports and airports against a pandemic. (Free registration required to view the story.)

The dramatic safeguarding measure against the deadly disease is part of a Federal Government draft management plan circulated for comment to health professionals, the tourism sector and state governments.

The plan paints a bleak picture of Australia under siege from the virus, which Health Minister Tony Abbott has warned is a real threat.

The power to close air and sea ports under the Quarantine Act would only be a last resort, a Health Department spokesman said.

Posted by dymaxion at 11:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

New York planning since February for the pandemic

The August 21 New York Times has a story on the city's pandemic planning: When a Bug Becomes a Monster.

If a pandemic similar to the one of 1918 occurred today, as many as 2.8 million New York City residents could be infected within months, sending more than 200,000 to the hospital and clogging the morgues with 400 deaths a day during the peak infection period.

Thanks to Taxus Pharma for the original link.

Posted by dymaxion at 11:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

A German flu blog

I've just discovered Vogelgrippe Virus und Influenza-Pandemie, a German/English blog. Looks excellent, especially thanks to maps showing the current extent of flu outbreaks and mysterious human illnesses across Asia. I'll also add this to my list of flu websites.

Posted by dymaxion at 11:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Tamiflu versus Relenza

According to a news story in the Australian Courier-Mail, a legal dispute is arising over the marketing of Relenza, an anti-flu drug. Its sales have been small compared to those for Tamiflu, and the creators of Relenza (an Australian biotech firm) claim it's because licencee GlaxoSmithKline didn't market it effectively.

No doubt we'll see such disputes as the stakes get higher.

Posted by dymaxion at 11:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Switzerland prepares

A story at Swissinfo summarizes the progress of avian flu so far and goes on to describe (briefly) what Switzerland is doing to prepare for a pandemic.

Posted by dymaxion at 11:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Roche close to deal with WHO on bird flu drug

According to FT.com, Roche is close to a deal to donate as many as 3 million doses of Tamiflu to WHO. It's a subscription site, so most of the story is unavailable.

Posted by dymaxion at 11:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

INFLUENZA AVIARIA, ESPERTI RUSSI INSISTONO: EUROPA A RISCHIO

Mosca, 22 ago. (Ap) - Yevgeny Nepoklonov, vicedirettore dei

servizi veterinari del ministero dell'Agricoltura russo, ha

nuovamente ammonito sul rischio che gli uccelli migratori

responsabili di aver portato in Russia il ceppo H5N1

dell'influenza aviaria possano trasferire l'agente patogeno, in

grado di attaccare l'uomo, anche in Europa e America del Nord.

From Apcom: TopNews (feed)
See also links to this feed and more from this feed

Posted by dymaxion at 11:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Is Bird Flu Being Covered-Up in India?

Avian influenza in India has been of interest of late because last spring bar headed geese, infected with H5N1, were discovered at Qinghai Lake in China. Copyright: India Gazette

From India Gazette: Recommended source for India News (feed)
See also links to this feed and more from this feed

Posted by dymaxion at 11:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Marketplace Health Management

... impact on H5N1 infection - is now going to become the 'I can't get product, therefore I must have ...

PSoTD -

Posted by dymaxion at 11:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Microscopic view of the H5N1 or 'bird flu' virus.

... [IMG ] The Rome-Fiumicino international airport has begun implementing precautionary measures involving passengers and merchandise originating fro ...

Photo Blog Spot ( http://f0to.blogspot.com )

Posted by dymaxion at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Out of Time?

... By way of the H5N1 blog, I found a sobering perspective on the coming pandemic at MotherJones.com. ...

Ablogalypse Now

Posted by dymaxion at 11:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 19, 2005

WHO Reported Avian Flu Deaths To Date (via Flickr)

Posted by dymaxion at 03:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Has bird flu reached Europe?

Russia is investigating mass bird deaths in a region to the west of the Ural mountains in what could become the first case of the deadly bird flu virus spreading to Europe, officials announced yesterday.

But Russia's chief animal health official said a preliminary analysis had shown the deaths in Kalmykia may not have been caused by the dangerous virus that can also kill humans.

The Russian state health watchdog, in a statement posted on its website, said the bird deaths occurred on a farm in the Caspian region of Kalmykia 2,000 km from the region where Russia's first flu outbreak was reported.

[...] There was no final word on what had caused the Kalmyk deaths but Sergei Dankvert, chief animal and plant safety officer, said the birds may have died from an infection caused by parasitic worms.

[...] Separately, Interfax news agency reported that health officials were looking into mass deaths of ducks near a reservoir in the Sverdlovsk region which borders a number of regions hit by the virus.

Full story.

Posted by dymaxion at 03:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Latest WHO update

Read it here.

Posted by dymaxion at 03:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Confirmed in Erkhel Lake Mongolia - Recombinomics

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Confirmed in Erkhel Lake Mongolia Recombinomics, PA - 5 hours ago As of today, preliminary tests from one dead whooper swan collected in Mongolia have shown the presence of the H5N1 strain of Avian Influenza using RT-PCR ... H5 Wild Bird Flu Confirmed in Mongolia Recombinomics China Offers to Share H5N1 Sequence Data Recombinomics H5 Detected in Saitama Japan Recombinomics all 4 related

Posted by dymaxion at 03:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Japan halfway through bird flu checks on farms - Reuters AlertNet

Japan halfway through bird flu checks on farms Reuters AlertNet, UK - 14 hours ago ... Early last year, Japan reported its first outbreak of avian flu in 79 years when it found chickens infected with the virulent H5N1 strain. ...

Posted by dymaxion at 03:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

New Fowl Guidelines Aim to Check Bird Flu - Deutsche Welle

Financial Times

New Fowl Guidelines Aim to Check Bird Flu Deutsche Welle, Germany - 1 hour ago ... humans. It has now been confirmed that the deadly bird flu virus -- the H5N1 strain of the influenza virus -- has reached Russia. ... Dutch poultry ordered indoors to prevent bird flu Ireland Online Dutch told to keep birds indoors over fear of flu Financial Times Dutch chickens ordered indoors over bird flu scare Xinhua Planet Ark - all 12 related

Posted by dymaxion at 03:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

GPs briefed on bird flu pandemic

According to SocietyGuardian.co.uk, British GPs are about to receive detailed information on dealing with avian flu.

A package of information put together by the chief medical officer, Liam Donaldson, will be sent to the UK's 10,465 GPs' surgeries next month.

This sounds like a sensible step. I hope the package will be made available electronically around the world.

Posted by dymaxion at 02:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Avian flu in Mongolia confirmed

Three migratory birds—a bar-headed goose and two whooper swans—have tested positive for H5 in Mongolia, according to DISEASE INFORMATION. All were found at Erhel Lake.

Posted by dymaxion at 02:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

[Evolution of avian influenza viruses H5N1 (1997-2004) in southern and south-eastern Asia]

Posted by dymaxion at 02:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 17, 2005

Wild Bird Migration Patterns

Posted by dymaxion at 02:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Understanding Avian Flu

Snagged from the Register, via Flickr

For link to larger version: click

Posted by dymaxion at 02:31 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

H5N1 Update - US Armed Forces At Risk?MaxedOutMama

The bird flu continues moving right along. Soon birds will be flying south for the winter and we can expect further spread of this exceptionally virulent strain that appears to have first emerged this spring in Qinghai, China. A Russian journalist has been hospitalized for illness after visiting outbreak areas in Novosibirsk. No test results yet.

Reports of odd illnesses in the affected areas continue (largely associated with contaminated natural bodies of water?), and authorities now seem to be quarantining the human population of some areas. It's too early to tell whether this will be broadly necessary. If it really has made it to the Volga delta, it is likely that a lot of birds will become infected and fly south in a month or two. Russia wants to vaccinate all poultry workers. The flu is believed to be spreading in the feces of migratory birds, so there is concern that the wheels of vehicles could carry the virus from one place to another. Poultry farmers are trying to establish heightened security and quarantine measures to prevent infection. Russian authorities now admit that the disease will remain endemic in Siberia.

If this has made it to the Caspian Sea our military forces are likely to encounter the virus with 3-6 months. Iran is to the south and Turkey is west of the Caspian Sea. Both have borders with Iraq. In the south of Iraq are wetlands and birds will fly in there. See this map. The Caspian Sea is the body of water extending down from Russia and Kazakhstan to Iran. The Volga runs into the Caspian Sea and the Volga delta is in the top left of the Caspian Sea.

This map shows a more detailed outline of the area. Note that the outbreaks and protective measures have been reported to the far north in Udmurtia, Omsk, Kurgan, the Altai and Novosibirsk. Novosibirsk and Krasnoyarsk were reporting sudden pneumonia cases and some sudden deaths last week in humans. Mongolia has had outbreaks. Kazakhstan has outbreaks. Krygzstan may have outbreaks. The virus has emerged in Tibet. As the dots fill in, it becomes clear that the Qinghai strain is moving as rapidly as migrating birds. Unfortunately, our soldiers will soon be in the path of this disease.

H5N1 does not appear to have achieved efficient human-to-human transmission, but neither has West Nile virus. Yet WNV is a significant threat to human health in some areas. Our armed forces need information and protection; they are now vulnerable. A person died in Vietnam from H5N1 recently. He had eaten a bird which had become ill from the virus. At a minimum the Armed Forces should forbid eating any local poultry for troops deployed in Central Asia, Afghanistan or Iraq. A different strain of this virus killed over 100 tigers in India. It is also known to infect swine. Unofficial reports of tests in China claimed it killed mice.

Unofficial reports from Qinghai in China were of over a hundred human deaths. Most were attributed to eating o being in contact with the sick birds. The virus does present a signficant threat to human health in its present form, and no one can properly assess how significant that threat is because we don't yet have enough experience with it. But there should be enough information to warrant stockpiling of drugs for the military (the strain which is spreading so rapidly probably is not amantadine/rimantadine resistant), isolation of the new strain with the purpose of preparing a vaccine likely to be effective against it, institution of sanitary measures and a ban against buying meat to serve to the troops from local markets.

Furthermore, we have at least some responsibility for the public health of the people of Iraq and we should be preparing to help the Iraqi government meet that responsibility. This situation is developing incredibly quickly. From the focal point in Qinghai Lake, China, this strain appears to have spread over a vast land area in three months. The time for the US Army to prepare to the extent possible is now.

This post is also available at Blogger News Network.

Posted by dymaxion at 02:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Update: Notice to Travelers about Avian Influenza A (H5N1)Community Dispatch

Posted by dymaxion at 02:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Cheaper alternative to Tamiflu?Avian Flu - What we need to know

Reader Ross Norcross brings to my attention a drug called VIRA 38, produced by PRB Pharmaceuticals. It is currently undergoing clinical trials in Hong-Kong to determine its effectiveness compared to Tamiflu. The drug is attractive mainly because it is reportedly cheaper than Tamiflu. Recent reports indicate production capacity for the drug has been expanded in response to the threat of a flu pandemic. Medical news today also reports that earlier this week Vietnam announced it will begin tests with Vera 38:

PRB Pharmaceuticals and Lee's Pharmaceuticals announced today that Vietnam's Department of Animal Health will begin testing an animal version of VIRA 38 on their poultry flocks as part of a multi-national, avian influenza research collaboration. Other members of the group include laboratories and clinics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, The Prince of Wales Hospital (Hong Kong), and Mahidol University, (Thailand).

[...] VIRA 38, first gained notoriety during the Taiwan SARS outbreak when it was used by the Taiwan Presidential staff and doctors at Sungshan Hospital (SARS management facility) and again in 2004 when it was found to inhibit H5N1 infections.

About VIRA 38: VIRA 38, PRB Pharmaceuticals' over-the-counter broad spectrum anti-viral medication is known for its effectiveness in treating and preventing influenza. VIRA 38 has recently been shown to contain compounds that inhibit a variety of pathogens including the bird flu (H5N1) virus.

An older Effect Measure post is skeptical of VIRA 38's effectiveness. If anyone knows more about the drug, feel free to share using the comments section.

Posted by dymaxion at 02:26 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Vaccin contre la grippe aviaire: l'OFSP lance un appel d'offreBlogdigger RM Media - Latest links for .rm files

La Suisse, par le biais de son Office fédéral de la santé a lancé officiellement un appel d’offre pour acheter un vaccin contre le virus H5N1, le nom de code de la grippe aviaire ou du poulet. Un virus qui vient de toucher, on l’apprenait hier, une sixième région de Russie. Selon les experts, le virus aurait été introduit en Russie par des oiseaux migrateurs venant de Chine. Depuis 2003, une soixantaine de personnes a perdu la vie à cause de la grippe aviaire en Asie du Sud-est. Johanna Commenge a recueilli les explications de Frédéric Eynard, biologiste à L’OFSP.

Posted by dymaxion at 02:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

What Are We Waiting For?Fragments From Floyd

In the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, the mortality rate was 3 percent, which seems merciful in comparison with the 50 percent mortality rate of today's highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu. In just the past 18 months, avian flu has caused the death or destruction of more than 140 million birds in 11 Asian nations. And, most alarming, in four of those nations, H5N1 has taken the worried jump from birds to infect humans.

Should the virus shift and human-to-human transmission become sustained, the cost in human lives could be substantial -- especially when vaccine would not become available, at best, until six to nine months after the outbreak of a pandemic. And even then, the vaccine would not be available to every American. Nor do we have enough of the only effective anti-viral agent Tamiflu stockpiled to treat more than 1 percent of our population.

To meet this threat, I propose an unprecedented effort -- a "Manhattan Project for the 21st century" -- not with the goal of creating a destructive new weapon, but to defend against destruction wreaked by infectious diseases such as H5N1 and biological weapons.

Such a project would include substantial increases in support for fundamental research, medical education, emergency capacity and public health infrastructure; the unleashing of the private sector and unprecedented collaboration among government and industry and academia; and the creation of secure stores of treatments and vaccines and vast networks of distribution.

But, above all, I speak of action -- without excuses, without exceptions -- with the goal of protecting every American and the capability to help protect the people of the world.

Many benefits other than survival would follow in train. We will come to understand diseases that we do not now understand and find the cures for diseases that we cannot now cure. It will add to the economy both a potent principle of organization and a stimulus like war, but war's opposite in effect. It will power the productive life of the country into new fields, transforming the information age with unexpected rapidity into the biotechnical age that is to come. Recombinomicsquotes Senator Bill Frist

t's concerns and hopes for fighting infectious disease, from a speech delivered at Harvard Medical School, June 2005, can be read here.

Posted by dymaxion at 02:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

H5N1 komt naar je toe deze herfst !!Sargasso

Onverwachts is het dodelijke vogelgriepvirus H5N1 aan de buitengrens van Europa opgedoken. In Chelyabinsk -aan de oostflank van de Oeral- worden momenteel duizenden kippen afgemaakt om de epidimie te stoppen. Waarschijnlijk is het virus afkomstig uit het noordoostelijker gelegen Novosibirsk waar het in juli opdook, trekvogels zouden het met zich naar het westen hebben meegevoerd. [...]

Posted by dymaxion at 01:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Avian flu spreading and now a real threat to EuropeGavin's Blog

This is getting more serious with H5N1, is it a matter of time before it becomes a human-human strain? And what happens if it does?

The first cases of bird flu have been reported in the Chelyabinsk region of Siberia, near the Ural mountains separating Europe from Asia. Scientists don’t yet know whether the deadly H5N1 strain is involved.

Roads were cordoned off and hundreds of chickens slaughtered in Chelyabinsk yesterday to contain the apparent advance of avian flu, first reported in Siberia in July and spreading west via migrating birds.

The H5N1 strain of avian flu has led to the death from infection and culling of tens of millions of birds across South-East Asia. It has also infected 112 people in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia, causing 57 deaths. Russia has not yet experienced any cases of affected human beings.

Scientists are concerned the H5N1 strain could mutate and pass easily between people. Were that to happen, it could potentially trigger a pandemic such as the 1918-19 Spanish flu which killed 20 million to 40 million people.

Posted by dymaxion at 01:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Avian Influenza - Plan NowBlogPulse Search Results for: "avian influenza"

I asked him if he had a timeline for the final recombination/mutation of H5N1 avian influenza to efficient transmissibility. . . http://www. node707. com/archives/004828. shtml...

Posted by dymaxion at 01:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Update on the Indonesian bird flu fatalitiesAvian Flu - What we need to know

Dr. Amin Soebandrio from the Ministry of Research and Technology Republic of Indonesia comments at ProMedMail on the source of the bird flu virus that killed a father and his two daughters in Jakarta over a month ago:

It could be true that the "escaped" bird(s) across the street were the source of the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus that infected 3 members of a family in Tanggerang, Jakarta, based on the finding of a trace of avian influenza virus in the dried bird droppings. However, this does not explain why only those 3 were affected, while the other family members showed negative results for both serologic and PCR tests. Also, none of the neighboring families showed a positive result.

There is also a question as to whether those 3 victims were exposed to the source at the same time or whether one of them was the index case and transmitted the virus to the other close family members sharing the same genetic susceptibility to the virus. As we know, the 2nd case showed symptoms 10-11 days after the 1st, the 3rd case a few days later: an unusual incubation period for avian influenza if they were exposed at the same time. My hypothesis is that they were grossly exposed to a (so far unknown) source, possibly repeatedly. Alternatively, one victim could have become a new infection source for the others who have similar genetic susceptibility. Could an intentional targeted spreading of the virus
possibly play a role in this case?

The ProMedMail commentators go on to say that

Dr. Soebandrio has made the interesting comment that differences in genetic susceptibility may have played a role in the Jakarta incident. This is an issue that deserves further study, particularly with respect to an apparent greater vulnerability of Vietnamese people to avian influenza virus infection.

This is an interesting hypothesis, and there may well be something to it in the case of the three Indonesian deaths. In general, I think the "greater vulnerability" observed in Vietnam seems likely to have more to do with how poultry is raised, cooked and consumed than with differences in genetic susceptibility.

Posted by dymaxion at 01:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Lintuinfluenssanettipäiväkirja

Tämännäköinen on paljon puhuttu lintuinfluenssavirus (H5N1)
Via Anti-Aging Medicine & Science Blog

Lintuinfluenssaa vastaan on kehitettu rokote. Aiheesta kirjoittaa NYTimes 7.8.05
Via Acronym Required

Lintuinfluenssasta on oma kotisivu H5N1, johon kerätään ruoreimmat uutiset viruksesta.

Posted by dymaxion at 01:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Abt. Doomsdayinfamy

(eine grosse Nachrichtenagentur) Bei dem sich von Russland nach Westen ausbreitenden Vogelgrippe-Virus handelt es sich nach Regierungsangaben um eine auch für den Menschen gefährliche Art. Das in der Stadt Tscheljabinsk im Ural entdeckte Virus sei vom Typ H5N1. (...) Ein Experte warnte, Zugvögel könnten das Virus bis in den europäischen Teil Russlands schleppen. Wissenschaftler fürchten eine Epidemie, falls sich das Virus so verändert, dass es direkt von Mensch...

Posted by dymaxion at 01:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Bird Flu: Can We Out-Collaborate a Pandemic?WorldChanging: Another World Is Here

Here's a challenge to the blogosphere:

As you probably know, avian flu (especially the virus H5N1) appears to be on the verge of becoming a severe crisis. 57 people have already been confirmed by labs to have been killed by the virus, and it is rapidly spreading in bird populations. If appropriate measures aren't taken, and we're unlucky, it may boil up into a full-blown pandemic. As the WHO warns:

"Never before [have] so many countries been so widely affected by avian influenza in poultry in its most deadly form... Never before [has] any avian influenza virus caused such extremely high fatality in humans."

This is scary.

Public health experts know a lot about how to prevent and manage pandemics. Unfortunately, public health has taken big funding hits nearly everywhere around the world, and many national and local public health programs are understaffed and underfunded.

This too is scary.

So, is it time to take to the basement safe room and start eating canned beans? Not quite. There is still a good chance that we can avert the next plague by working together. If so, the blogosphere will need to play a key role.

Many of the tasks most needed to prevent a global pandemic are, to greater and lesser degrees, amenable to collaborative efforts. And we are increasingly armed with the kinds of tools that facilitate a networked approach to fighting edpidemics We have, for instance, great simulations of how H5N1 might spread, increasingly better understandings of previous killer flu outbreaks, good foresight work on how a pandemic might unfold and a variety of collaborative tools, for instance the Flu Wiki and WikiPedia Avian Influenza efforts.

Much of the frontline work is (and will continue to be) carried out largely by brave and trained professionals. But in one crucial fight, collaborators of all stripes -- but especially those of us who are already adept at online communication -- can make a huge difference: the battle to build public awareness of the risks and public support for government preparedness and action.

Journalists play a key role here, certainly.

Some things, however, are too important to leave to the pros. The alarm is not being rung either loudly enough or responsibly enough. We can change that. Blogs, listserves and other collaborative communcations projects can play a key role in helping to not only build the public will for action, but in sharing information about bird flu in a way which leaves people inspired to pay attention and act rationally, rather than panic or retreat into denial.

How? The WHO's Peter M. Sandman and Jody Lanard have some suggestions. In their paper Bird Flu: Communicating the Risk, they share tips for spreading the news without spreading unproductive panic. It's long, but worth quoting in depth:

1. Start where your audience starts Instead of ignoring the fact that people think flu is minor, or berating people for thinking that flu is minor, acknowledge that even some public health authorities use the term "flu" in ways that minimize its seriousness. (A senior U.S. health official recently apologized for his wife's absence at an event by saying she was home with "a stomach flu"—a misnomer.) After making common cause with the public—"we have all ignored influenza for too long"—talk about how horrific the next flu pandemic may be compared with the annual flu.

2. Don't be afraid to frighten people
For most of the world right now, though, apathy is the problem—not denial. We can't scare people enough about H5N1. WHO has been trying for over a year, with evermore-dramatic appeals to the media, the public, and Member States. Until a pandemic begins, there's little chance we'll scare people too much.

3. Acknowledge uncertainty
Overconfident overreassurance ("the situation is under control, everything is going to be fine") is terrible risk communication. Paradoxically, people usually find it alarming. They sense its insincerity and become mistrustful even before they know the outcome. But overconfident warnings are also unwise. There is so much we don't know about H5N1. Will it ever achieve efficient human-to-human transmission and ignite a pandemic? If that happens, will it become less lethal in the process, or perhaps not lethal at all? How many people will it infect? How quickly will it spread? How long will it last? How much antiviral medication will be available in different parts of the world, and how well will it work? How long will it take for an effective vaccine to be available? Which countries and which people in those countries will get the vaccine first? How well will health care systems cope? How well will national and international economies cope? And how well will civil society cope?

Bird flu experts and risk communicators cannot answer these questions. But we can and should raise them, acknowledging our uncertainty at every turn.

4. Share dilemmas
Sharing dilemmas is a lot like acknowledging uncertainty. Not only are we unsure about what will happen; we're also unsure about what to do. Everyone finds this hard to admit. But dilemma-sharing has huge advantages:
*It humanizes the organization by letting the pain of difficult decisions show.
*It gives people a chance to make suggestions and be part of the process.
*It moderates the conflict between opposing recommendations.
*It reduces the outrage if you turn out to be wrong.

5. Give people things to do
One reason sometimes given for not alarming the public is that there's nothing for people to do anyway. A Jan. 13, 2005, Wall Street Journal article quoted Canadian infectious disease expert Richard Schabas as saying: "Scaring people about avian influenza accomplishes nothing, because we're not asking people to do anything about it." But the error isn't scaring people. The error is failing to realize—and say—how much they can do to prepare.

Helping resolve government policy dilemmas is just the beginning. Thailand, for example, has trained almost a million volunteers to reach out to every village in the country to inform people about the risks and signs of bird flu and how to try to protect themselves and their flocks. Many companies, hospitals, schools, and local governments around the world are starting to plan for "business continuity" in the event of a pandemic. Even cognitive and emotional rehearsal—learning about H5N1 and thinking about what a pandemic might be like and how you'd cope—is a kind of preparedness and a kind of involvement.

6. Be willing to speculate—responsibly
Warnings are intrinsically speculations. Like hurricane forecasters, we have to offer both worst-case scenarios and likelier scenarios, always acknowledging that we may turn out to be wrong.

7. Don't get caught in the numbers game
Battles over how many people an H5N1 pandemic might kill are pointless. What matters is that flu pandemics are horrific, and for the first time ever we can see one coming and start getting ready.

8. Stress magnitude more than probability
The rationale for H5N1 pandemic preparedness isn't that we're sure it's coming, but how bad it could get. Overconfidence about risk probability is a mistake. Dramatic warnings about risk magnitude are more justified. (There are times when it's best to stress probability. But the uncertain prospect of a catastrophe should be about magnitude.)

9. Guide the adjustment reaction
Once people get past their apathy and start taking a new risk seriously, the normal response is an "adjustment reaction"—a temporary fearfulness, sometimes accompanied by misplaced or excessive caution. This is the teachable moment. Don't ignore it or ridicule it; guide it. Then we settle into the "new normal."

10. Inform the public early and aim for total candor and transparency
These are two of the hardest risk communication recommendations for governments to adopt. There are so many barriers—fear of damaging the economy, looking incompetent, turning out to be wrong, causing undue alarm. But the price of informing the public late, of covering up or minimizing the problem, is high: diminished credibility, just when you need it most to help your people through an influenza pandemic.

>I'd submit that these are pretty damn good guidelines for how to blog about pandemic preparedness. (If you're interested in learning more, there's an online tutorial available in English, Spanish and Portuguese.)

So here's the challenge: we know we need a bigger, wider and better debate about bird flu and its dangers. We know time is short. Can we prove ourselves up to the task of not only spreading the word more rapidly, but of helping people think more clearly about what they can do, alone and together, to face what many believe is a looming crisis?

Can we calmly and quickly out-collaborate the pandemic?

Here's one modest proposal: Let's sound the alarm this week. If you're reading this and you have a blog, make a point of posting something about bird flu this week (feel free to use the links we mention here, if that makes life easier). If you maintain a list, perhaps consider include a small note about starting to prepare for bird flu the next time you send something out. If you're active in an online discussion, think about raising the topic there. Then trackback to this post, or leave a note in the comments, so others can see what you're done. Simple, quick, easy, and -- if enough of us do it -- perhaps enough to make a difference.

(Posted by Alex Steffen in Big Systems - Global Institutions, Governance and History at 09:12 PM)

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ZNet on avian flu

Mike Davis, author of a just-published book called Monster at Our Door: The Global Threat of Avian Flu, has an article on ZNet about The Coming Avian Flu Pandemic and the US government's less than adequate response.

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Baku braces for avian flu

According to BakuTODAY.net, migrating birds will reach the Caspian Sea port this fall. You can read the story here. And here's a key quote:

According to the research, birds that usually migrate from western Siberia to Africa and Europe fly over the Caspian and Black Seas and stay in these territories for several weeks, which may cause spreading of a H5N1 virus there. The virus may also affect Iran, Iraq, Georgia and the Ukraine, as birds from the north often choose these countries to spend the winter, experts say.

I hope to have some news from Iraq later today or tomorrow.

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Filtering into the blogosphere

No doubt countless regular blogs are touching on avian flu and the threat of a pandemic, but it's still unusual for NewsNow to tag a blog post about flu. Here's such a post: Can We Out-Collaborate a Pandemic?

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Pig disease throws spotlight on use of antibiotics

Reuters has stopped calling it "swine flu" and reported on the possibility that the outbreak of Streptococcus suis is the result of overuse of antibiotics. It raises an unpleasant idea: Using antivirals could make H5N1 more resistant just as using antibiotics is creating tougher bacteria...creating the possibility of opportunist bacterial infections attacking people weakened by flu.

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Investor's guide to avian flu

Yesterday I mentioned the Canadian brokerage that predicts a new Depression as a consequence of a flu pandemic. The brokerage is BMO Nesbitt Burns and the report is available as a PDF here.

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Influenza A H5N1 detection.

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Has Time Run Out? - Mother Jones

Has Time Run Out? Mother Jones, CA - 9 hours ago ... At the same time, some of them have been performing prodigious genetic detective work as a mutant flu virus, H5N1, has lodged in the systems of wild fowl in ... The Coming Avian Flu Pandemic ZNet all 2 related

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Russia needs one year to develop vaccine against bird flu- view - ITAR-TASS

Russia needs one year to develop vaccine against bird flu- view ITAR-TASS, Russia - 6 hours ago NOVOSIBIRSK, August 17 (Itar-Tass) - One year and several dozen million roubles will be needed to develop a vaccine against the H5N1 strain of bird flu, a ...

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August 15, 2005

Tamiflu monopoly "bordering on the immoral"

A site called Interactive Investor quotes the Philippines' health minister Francisco Duque as saying that Roche's production monopoly of Tamiflu "borders on the immoral."

"What is also crucial at this point is for the WHO (World Health Organization) and its member states to bond together and exact some kind of pressure to make sure that not just one drug manufacturer is going to produce the anti-viral," Duque told reporters after the meeting.

The WHO's Thailand representative, William Aldis, said urgent discussions with Roche are underway, aimed at maximizing production of the drug.

"I think everyone including WHO is concerned at the limited supply of oseltamivir," he said.

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Asian nations plan for pandemic flu, another treatment is suggested

I've posted a couple of stories from the Bangkok conference of Asian health ministers, without really understanding how significant the conference was. Now that it's concluded, CIDRAP has an excellent summary.

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Russians testing their own vaccine

According to a story in The St. Petersburg Times, the Russians are about to test a new avian-flu vaccine. Scientists at St. Petersburg's Scientific Research Flu Institute will use themselves as experimental subjects. If all goes well, the vaccine could be in production by this fall.

Meanwhile, a story in Pravda reports Russian scientists are planning vaccination programs for routine flu and aren't as persuaded as WHO that an H5N1 pandemic is imminent.

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Again, let us prepare

The Journal News, a paper in New York City's northern suburbs, has a thoughtful editorial on pandemic planning: Again, let us prepare. It's encouraging to see such comments in local media; in many communities, "pandemic" is an unmentionable word, and attempts at discussion end with the unanswerable "Too depressing."

The editorial is pretty specific in its suggestions, and the paragraph in the quote has a sting in its tail:

•We urge the immediate formation of a special Asian Bird Flu Process Committee, under the direction of Rockland Health Commissioner Dr. Joan Facelle, to accomplish the immediate securing of enough vaccine for all Rockland residents. And there must be back-up sources.

• An orderly system must in place to arrange speedy vaccination without panic. That system should be known to all in advance. We cannot have supermarkets giving out vaccine as "loss leaders" while the county has none, as initially happened last fall in the annual flu preparation.

• Prioritizing of vaccinations for the elderly and those with health concerns; first responders, teachers, and health care workers; and children.

• A game plan to oversee health care should enough people get ill, with the powers of quarantine used; with infected children and others immediately sent home or to health care; with hospitals and health care centers told to take in everyone regardless of the ability to pay.

While it is Washington that will really have to lead the country in securing bird flu vaccine, if local health departments across the nation move now while the bureaucracy initially does not, it may shame it and highlight the urgency of the situation.

Shaming the bureaucrats? Treating the ill regardless of ability to pay? Setting priorities for vaccination? Remarkable ideas.

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Russian journalist not a flu victim

According to MosNews.com, a Russian news site, the journalist in Siberia did not contract avian flu.

Siberian journalist Maria Pashkova who was hospitalized with bird flu symptoms was in reality suffering from a common respiratory infection, deputy head of Novosibirsk Health Department Sergey Pavlenko told RIA Novosti on Monday.

On Monday a medical consultation diagnosed Maria with acute respiratory viral infection, a malady as common as ordinary flu, Pavlenko said.

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Shenzhen may have S suis...or may not

After several days' silence on health issues, Boxun's English page today says Shenzhen May Have 'Streptococcosis Suis' Victims Dead.

Shenzhen is on the Guangdong-Hong Kong border, and is a very big city in its own right. According to the story, pork is being recalled and anyone who has eaten pork recently has been told to register with their apartment building's manager's office.

An anonymous source claims five persons in a Shenzhen pork-processing plant died within 24 hours of showing symptoms. They had been butchering pork supposedly from Henan province but actually from Sichuan. Meanwhile, no news about pig fever has come out of Sichuan in several days.

Xinhuanet, however, claims the suspect pork has tested negative for S suis:

Fifteen live pigs were spotted symptoms of being infected by the bacteria last Monday in Shenzhen city of south China's Guangdong Province and were quarantined soon.

Then 600-kg frozen pork from southwestern Sichuan Province, where an endemic caused by the pig-borne bacteria broke out in late June, were suspected being infected by the bacteria in the city on Thursday.

After being tested by a team of experts in animal epidemic prevention sent by the provincial agricultural department on Saturday, samples from the live pigs and pork were tested negativefor the epidemic.

esn't say what caused the symptoms that resembled pig fever.

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JUST A BUMP IN THE BELTWAY: On the Wing

Just a Bump in the Beltway- On the Wing August 15, 2005 On the Wing Virus may kill 60,000 in California despite new drug, study says

By DAVID WHITNEY
BEE WASHINGTON BUREAU
Last Updated: August 14, 2005, 04:26:59 AM PDT

WASHINGTON — They know it's coming. Hospitals already are monitoring for its arrival with every patient who checks in. Now scientists are swabbing wild bird bottoms in California and elsewhere in a hunt for the first signs of the deadly virus.

What has scientists worried is not the fact that the avian flu virus H5N1 already has killed at least 60 people overseas. Or that it has spread from Southeast Asia to China and Russia.

What has them convinced about the diminishing odds of escaping a worldwide health catastrophe — one study estimates that fatalities in California could top 60,000 — is that wild birds overseas no longer seem to be dying.

That means the virus is mutating, and scientists fear it has now adapted so that it can survive the annual migration of wild birds from Asia to North America without killing its hosts.

"That's a real danger sign," said veterinarian Carol Cardona of the University of California at Davis.

Cardona is part of the growing army of scientists and health care professionals gearing up to fight what could become the first flu pandemic since 1918, when a Spanish flu virus — also believed to have been spread by birds — killed between 20 million and 40 million people around the world.

More Americans died in that outbreak than were killed in World War I. And already the projections are that the next pandemic, perhaps just months away, will kill similar numbers of people.

So far, the virus has not mutated or combined with other influenza viruses so that it can spread from human to human.

"The great fear is that we will see a version of H5N1 that will spread very easily from person to person," said David Daigle of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

Migrating birds may bring flu

"Most experts believe it is not a question of if, but when," he said.

According to a recent report by the Trust for America's Health, the U.S. toll could surpass 540,000.

In California, the report said, deaths could top 60,000 and hospitalizations could exceed 273,000 — unfathomable given that number is four times the amount of hospital beds in the state, according to the California Hospital Association.

Ken August, spokesman for the California Department of Health Services, said that if the nightmare scenario develops, mass quarantine of infected patients and other mandatory steps to stop the virus' spread could be inevitable.

"We could face asking the public to take some extraordinary measures," August warned.

Already, he said, hospitals throughout the state have been asked to begin monitoring for patients reporting unexplained respiratory illness and who have traveled recently to Southeast Asia.

"What we're concerned about is the flu virus mutating into something that no one has experienced and that would cause severe illness and death," he said.

While scientists and health officials stress that there is no evidence of an Asian variety of the H5N1 virus in the United States now, it could arrive at almost any time with passengers unloading from an overseas flight from Thailand, China or Russia.

Or it could arrive on the wings of an infected bird.

Over at H5N1 Blog, Crawford says:

The story says the scientists are alarmed because "wild birds overseas no longer seem to be dying." This is taken to mean the virus is mutating so that it no longer kills its bird hosts—who are therefore capable of long migration flights that could bring H5N1 into North America via Siberia.

Uh huh. I talked about planning yesterday. We don't have unlimited amounts of time.

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Carriers of avian flu could migrate to Alaska

exists that Alaskans have ever caught flu directly from wild birds in the state, he said. And no one has found the deadly H5N1 strain in Alaska's migrating Copyright: Big News Network.com

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Rusia advierte de que la gripe aviaria podría propagarse a Europa.

El principal epidemiólogo de Rusia dice que el brote de gripe aviaria que afecta a Siberia se podría propagar a Europa.

La propagación podría ser a través de las principales regiones agrícolas del sur del país y luego hacia los países del Oriente Medio y del Mediterráneo.

"Un análisis sobre las rutas migratorias de las aves mostró que durante el otoño del 2005 (...) la cepa H5N1 del virus se podría propagar de Siberia occidental al mar Caspio y al mar Negro", dijo Gennady Onishchenko en una carta dirigida a los responsables de salud de Rusia.

La carta fue publicada en el sitio de Internet del organismo encargado de velar por los derechos del consumidor en Rusia.

"Además de la región del sur de Rusia, las aves migratorias podrían propagar el virus en países vecinos (Azerbaiyán, Irán, Irak, Georgia, Ucrania y países del Mediterráneo) debido a que las rutas de migración también pasan por esas regiones en el otoño", precisó en la carta.


Reuters

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H5N1 Impfstoff und weitere VerbreitungScipLog

Forscher des Friedrich-Loeffler-Instituts in Riems haben einen Impfstoff gegen die H5 und H7 Subtypen der Vogegrippe entwickelt, die nach ersten Tests einen guten Schutz bieten. Allerdings ist die Impfung von Geflügel in Deutschland derzeit noch verboten.

Derweil hat sich das Virus weiter verbreitet, es ist inziwschen in Sibirien und Kasachstan angekommen, über 3000 Vögel sollen schon verstorben sein. Ltu dem kasachischen Katastrophenschutz soll auch ein Bauer infiziert worden sein. Ist der Virus also bereits mutiert?

Jedenfalls kommen die Meldungen über H5N1 immer häufiger. Sehr, sehr bedenklich ist das.

(Quellen: SpOn/Forscher finden Impfstoff für Geflügel und SpOn/Vogelgrippe breitet sich in Sibirien aus)

Bisherige Postings von mir zum Thema

h5n1, sibirien, impfstoff

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Bites And Ham MorselsMaxedOutMama

Florida Cracker has weathered a canine crisis. See Hambone Day.

And in other news, city commissioners are incredibly good at economics, or believe that they are. That's why we have such successful public projects in this country, right? Eminent domain is a really cheap way for developers to get rich, but that's little consolation when it is your property that's seized to make them rich. If they need it so much, they should be forced to share the profits with the property owners.... But you know that bird just isn't going to fly, right? There would be less left over for donations to the election campaigns of city commissioners, and it is amazing how public-spirited developers are on the local level. Just amazing.

Speaking of flying birds, the Netherlands is considering requiring its poultry businesses to keep birds inside:

The Dutch government said on Friday that it was considering to force poultry farmers to keep their poultry inside following the recent case of bird flu in Russia and Kazakhstan

The migration of birds from Siberia to Europe is about to start. In the autumn the migratory birds from that region will have reached the Netherlands.

According to the ministry, there is a chance that contaminated birds, through their droppings, among other things, will contaminate poultry in the Netherlands.

Probably. The outbreak in Chelyabinsk was confirmed. It's moving right along. In case you think I'm being alarmist about the threat to points south and west, including Iraq, I've got company in Russia:

"An analysis of bird migration routes has shown that in autumn 2005...the H5N1 virus may be spread from Western Siberia to the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea," Gennady Onishchenko said in a letter to Russian regional health officials.

The letter was posted on the Web site of the state's consumer rights watchdog.

"Apart from Russia's south, migrating birds may spread the virus to nearby countries (Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine, Mediterranian countries) because bird migration routes from Siberia also go through those regions in autumn," he said in the letter.

It might happen a little sooner than expected, too. People in some districts have been shooting at flying birds to try to keep them from infecting their livestock. So the birds will be moving along a little faster and more to the wild areas where it is less likely that testing will be done on random wild bird carcasses. Some countries don't have good reporting and disease control, so the virus could potentially move several hundred kilometers without anyone noticing for a time.

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Clinical trials of DNA-based avian flu vaccine scheduled for early 2006BlogPulse Search Results for: influenza pandemic

With avian flu reaching Siberia, the fears of a global pandemic have heightened even further. ... andemic vaccine for the H5N1 avian influenza strain by eight months, to September 2005....

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Alternative drug should be set for bird flu -expertsKeralaNext:

WASHINGTON, A second influenza drug, GlaxoSmithKline''s Relenza, should be stockpiled in readiness for a feared global pandemic of avian flu, researchers said on Thursday. The drug, known generically as zanamivir, is inhaled and some doctors have worried that patients may not be able to use it correctly, but the team of Asian doctors said it will be important to have as many antivirals on hand as possible. The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed 62 people since late 2003 and is affecting flocks from Vietnam to Kazakhstan. Although it is not yet easily transmitted from birds to people or from person to person, experts fear it will acquire this ability and cause a worldwide disaster. So health officials are scrambling to come up with a plan for dealing with it.

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ID Biomedical posts wider Q2 loss of $32.5M compared to year-ago ... - Canada.com

ID Biomedical posts wider Q2 loss of $32.5M compared to year-ago ... Canada.com, Canada - 1 hour ago ... The federal budget in February set aside $34 million for production of trial batches of an H5N1 vaccine, however a contract has not yet been signed. ...

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August 12, 2005

Second drug may be effective against bird flu - MSNBC

CTV

Second drug may be effective against bird flu MSNBC - 2 hours ago ... possible. The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed 62 people since late 2003 and is affecting flocks from Vietnam to Kazakhstan. Although ... Antiviral drug touted as anti-pandemic tool CTV Governments should consider stockpiling zanamivir (Relenza) for ... News-Medical.net all 14 related

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Kazakhs investigate fifth village for bird flu - Reuters AlertNet

Financial Times

Kazakhs investigate fifth village for bird flu Reuters AlertNet, UK - 4 hours ago The strain, known as H5N1, can be caught by humans and has killed more than 50 people in Asia since 2003. A senior veterinary official ... Swiss take further action over bird flu Swissinfo Deadly bird flu found across Asia New Scientist (subscription) Deadly bird flu strain spreads in Kazakhstan Reuters South Africa The Moscow Times - Reuters AlertNet - all 64 related

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Additional drug should be part of contingency plan for avian ... - Medical News Today (press release)

Additional drug should be part of contingency plan for avian ... Medical News Today (press release), UK - 5 hours ago ... THE LANCET. There is some evidence of human-to-human transmission for the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza. A possible ...

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China Seals off Farm to Curb Bird Flu in TibetSouth Bay Health

China has sealed off a farm in far-western Tibet and inoculated poultry within a five-km (three-mile) radius after discovering a strain of bird flu likely to be deadly to humans, state media said on Friday. The world animal health body OIE said the virus was likely to be the H5N1...

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World Events :: RE: Bird Flu/Influenza Pandemic Threat: UPDATESPolitics & Current Affairs

Author: Fredfredson
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:20 pm (GMT 1)

From the State Department via :
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=20185

U.S. Embassy Tashkent issued the following Warden Message on August 11, 2005:

AVIAN FLU FACT SHEET, AUGUST 2005

This Fact Sheet alerts Americans to the most recent occurrences of Influenza A H5N1 (avian influenza strain) in Asia. A number of countries are reporting cases of avian influenza, commonly referred to as "bird flu." The H5N1 strain of influenza causes severe disease in fowl. In addition, several SE Asian countries have reported a number of bird-to-human transmissions of the avian flu. Please visit the WHO website, http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avia...nza/country/en/ for the most up to date information on the countries affected.

The vast majority of the known human cases have resulted from direct contact with poultry, and there is only limited evidence to suggest possible human-to-human transmission. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Department are concerned about the potential for human-to- human transmission of this highly dangerous flu strain, and are working closely with other partners in an effort to monitor the outbreak.

At this time, CDC and the WHO have not issued any travel alerts or advisories for avian flu-infected areas. However, CDC advises travelers to countries in Asia with documented H5N1 outbreaks to avoid poultry farms, contact with animals in live food markets, and any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with feces from poultry or other animals. CDC advises travelers to clean their hands often with soap and water or waterless alcohol-based hand-rubs to help prevent disease transmission. In addition, as a precaution, all foods from poultry, including eggs, should be thoroughly cooked. CDC further advises any travelers with a febrile respiratory illness returning from countries affected by H5N1 virus (bird flu) to seek prompt medical attention.

The WHO does not at present conclude that any processed poultry products (whole refrigerated or frozen carcasses and products derived from these) or eggs pose a risk to public health.

A specific vaccine for humans that is effective against avian influenza has not yet been developed. Based upon limited data, the CDC has suggested that the anti-viral medication Oseltamavir (brand name-Tamiflu) may be effective in preventing or treating avian influenza. Using this input, the Department of State has decided to pre- position the drug Tamiflu at its Embassies and Consulates in the Southeast Asian Region for eligible US Government employees and their families serving abroad.

Tamiflu may not be readily available overseas and the State Department encourages American citizens traveling or living abroad that are interested in obtaining this medication to consult with their physician.

Americans who are planning travel to a country that has reported the virus or who are concerned about the Avian flu are advised to monitor the CDC and the WHO web sites, http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/index.htm and http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/ for the latest information.

Additional country information can be obtained from the Department of State's Consular Information Sheets at http://travel.state.gov and from the Department of State's toll-free number, 1-888-407-4747, or if calling from overseas, 202-501-4444.

CDC Contact Information: Public Inquiries: English (888) 246-2675 Spanish (888) 246-2857 TTY (866) 874-2646 Mon-Fri 8am-11pm EST Sat-Sun 10am-8pm EST Address: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1600 Clifton Rd. Atlanta, GA 30333 USA (404) 639-3311 WHO Liaison Office in Washington, DC STATE 00143372 002.2 OF 002 Contact Information: Telephone: (202) 331-9081 Facsimile: (202) 331-9097 Address: WHO Liaison Office 1775 K Street, N.W., Suite 430 Washington, D.C. 20006 USA.


interesting...makes quite clear there is no vaccine and has Tamiflu in the embassy
_________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36

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World Events :: RE: Bird Flu/Influenza Pandemic Threat: UPDATESPolitics & Current Affairs

Author: Fredfredson
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:16 pm (GMT 1)

Journalist Hospitalized With Bird Flu Symptoms in Novosibirsk

Recombinomics Commentary
August 12, 2005

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08120502/H5N1_Reporter_Novosibirsk.html

Journalist OF GTRK "Novosibirsk" Mary Pashkova, which several days ago visited those infected by ptichim influenza the regions of Novosibirskaya Oblast, it was hospitalized with simtomami of this illness to the state scientific center of virology and biotechnology the "vector", which is found near Novosibirsk in naukograde Kol'tsovo. As the correspondent reports IA REGNUM recently this communication was sounded in the news issue of television network.

As itself reported Mary on the telephone, this is usual procedure for those, who were in these territories and who had a contact with the infected bird and after pochustvoval light indisposition. In the center of virology Mary is completely isolated oi external peace. Scientists already analyzed, but their results are not thus far known.

The above online translation indicates a reporter covering the H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Novosibirsk has been placed in isolate after developing bird flu symptoms. Test results have not yet been made public.

Novosibirsk has a large number of villages with H5N1. The villages surround Chany Lake and at least nine independent isolates have been obtained by Vektor Labs. The initial sequence data indicates the H5N1 at Chany Lake is very similar to H5N1 from Qinghai Lake.

Third party reports by boxun described human cases near Qinghai Lake, but China has denied any human cases. Up to this point Russia has also denied human cases, as has Kazakhstan. However, In Kazakhstan a poultry worker in Pavlodar as well as a family of four that ate goose meat developed symptoms. Similarly, in adjacent East Kazakhstan, 15 patrons of a dining hall developed symptoms after eating chicken cutlets.

The Qinghai isolates have been virulent in experimental chickens and mice. The die-off of migratory birds at Qinghai Lake was also without precedent.

In Tomsk, adjacent to Novosibirsk, 20 patients have been hospitalize with meningitis. The H5N1 bird isolates from Chany Lake appear to have PB2 polymorphism, E627K, which is associated with increased virulence in mice and neurotropism in mice, tigers, and ferrets.

More information on the lab results on the reporter would be useful.
_________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36

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Russian scientists conduct bird flu vaccine self-proved testsThe World > Russia - Waypath Topic Streams

Russian scientists conduct bird flu vaccine self-proved tests RIA Novosti, - 7 hours ago MOSCOW, August 11 (RIA Novosti) - A bird flu vaccine might be launched in Russia sometime in fall 2006 following tests, a Russian daily reported Thursday. VIETNAM REPORTS NEW BIRD FLU FATALITY Antara, - 15 hours ago Hanoi (ANTARA News) - A 35-year-old man in Vietnam has tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, bringing the country`s death toll to 22 since the 133 Confirmed Cases of Bird Flu

Posted by dymaxion at 02:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

中国 鳥インフルエンザ発生

... 中国 鳥インフルエンザ発生 2005-08-12 / 中国関連 読売新聞 中国チベットの養鶏場、鳥インフルエンザ発生 http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/main/news/20050812i413.htm １２日の新華社電によると、中国チベット自治区ラサ郊外の養鶏場で、 Ｈ５Ｎ１型とみられる鳥インフルエンザが発生した。 当局は２６００羽以上を処分、発見現場周辺の消毒などの措置をとった。 シンガポール紙によると、これまでに１３３羽が死亡したが、 人への感染は確認されていないという。 Boycott Beijin 2008 Olympics ...

三日坊主症候群

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Antiviral drug touted as anti-pandemic tool

... shown in laboratory trials to protect against all subtypes of influenza, including the deadly H5N1... disinterest in the drug is curious, given it is one of only two known to work against the H5N1 avian flu. Two other flu drugs exist -- amantadine and rimantadine. But the H5N1 strain is resistant to both ...

Medical Health

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Frist Lecture

... such as H5N1, and SARS -- all are merely the advance patrols of a great army forming out of sight..., which seems merciful in comparison to the 50 percent mortality rate of today’s highly pathogenic H5N1... million birds in 11 Asian nations. And, most alarmingly, in 4 of those nations, H5N1 has taken ...

The War On Lies

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August 11, 2005

Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves Is Not a Fable in China

Everyone’s talking but no one’s listening. Yahoo’s 1 billion dollar 40 percent stake in Alibaba, China’s largest e-commerce firm does not illustrate that a Net bubble is back, but it does give new meaning to the title character, Ali Baba from the Arabian Nights, who accesses treasure from a magical password.

Following so soon on Baidu’s huge IPO success, it makes one wonder, if indeed Internet analysts and investment bankers are dwelling in bunkers and suffer from memory loss.

All right, it’s true that China has a 100 million Internet users, but has anyone taken a pulse or completed recent surveys on the actual buying power of these Net users? The answer is yes. China's online revenue -- which includes sales from advertising and from Internet gaming and wireless services --grew 35 percent last year to $1.1 billion and will rise 30 percent in 2005, according to MindShare, the media-buying unit of London- based WPP Group Plc.

Alibaba, along with the huge treasure or rather investment from Yahoo, gains exclusive Chinese rights to the super-monetized Yahoo brand. The package of Yahoo China’s assets includes Yahoo’s search technology, the Yahoo China website, its communication and advertising business, as well as 3721.com, a Chinese language search engine.

I have met the affable and stealth CEO, Jack Ma at several Internet conferences and he is certain to retain his leadership post in the new enterprise. Ma maintains that this investment infusion will enable them to spend more on the search engine. No doubt about that Jack, after all, it's all about easy access is it not?

Related entries:
Is China SAFE for Private Equity Investors?... - Jul 25, 2005
Understanding the law in China is always a good mantra... - Jul 27, 2005
U.S. VCs Scaling China’s Great Investment Wall... - Jul 29, 2005
Key China Finance Resource... - Jul 26, 2005


Related Research Reports:

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The Internet in China: A Market Analysis (70 pages) Price: US$800 The number of Internet subscribers in China has grown from 10,000 to over 2,000,000 in 5 years. This report is a comprehensive overview including the number of Internet subscribers, web sites, mode/pl... China Electronics Industry and High Tech Market (2004) (146 pages) Price: US$380 After a decade of moving factories to China, many of the world¡¯s big high-tech firms are forging a new style of partnership with Chinese manufacturers that show the country¡¯s growing engineering ...

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Strong Results in U.S. Bird Flu Vaccine Trial; More Tests Needed

Strong Results in U.S. Bird Flu Vaccine Trial; More Tests Needed

Interview with Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health

10 August 2005
By Charlene Porter
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington – Patients participating in a U.S.-government-backed trial of a vaccine for a dangerous bird flu virus are showing some positive results, but an official overseeing the trial cautions that the vaccine’s ability to actually protect against the virus is still uncertain. In April, the trial began on a vaccine for the H5N1 influenza virus, which officials fear may have the potential to trigger a global flu pandemic. Positive results have emerged from fewer than 120 test subjects so far, according to the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) at the National Institutes of Health.

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"I've looked at flu from both sides now . . . " (hum along)

No problem with bird flu in Russia? Big problem with bird flu in Russia? Take your pick:

No Problem

Reuters: Russian bird flu epidemic to fade soon -WHO

A bird flu epidemic in Russia is subsiding and should disappear by late August, a World Health Organisation official said on Tuesday.

[snip]

"Things are quietening down. The (epidemic) will vanish in 10-15 days," Oleg Kiselyov, head of a research institute operating under the WHO's auspices, told reporters in Russia's second city of St Petersburg.

"It won't spread further because of changing weather conditions. It's never warm enough in Siberia in late August."

Interfax, Russian News Agency: Bird flu epidemic in Russia to end in 10-15 days

A senior World Health Organization official said the bird flu epidemic in Russia will "die
down completely in 10 to 15 days," and that bird flu vaccine for humans will start being tested in September and might come into use in October.

"Anti-epidemic measures have localized the [bird flu] outbreak," and recent weather changes will help localize the disease, Oleg Kiselyov, head of the WHO National Influenza Center, told a news conference in St. Petersburg.

"The vaccine and strain have been handed over under an agreement to Mikrogen - this is a state consortium for the manufacture of vaccines," he said.

"In September we will start testing the vaccine on 20 volunteers," Kiselyov said.

Big Problem

Reuters again: Russian bird flu outbreak yet to be contained

A bird flu epidemic in Russia's Siberia could be spreading to new regions and there are no immediate signs that the outbreak has been contained, emergency and health officials said on Tuesday.

"The (epidemic) is being localised. Its spread is currently limited to five regions, but that does not mean that birds could not be dying somewhere else," said Gennady Onishchenko, Russia's chief epidemiologist.

"We would've been drinking champagne by now if it had been pinned down," he was quoted by Interfax news agency in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk.

[snip]

In a sign the outbreak had yet to be contained, Russian officials said on Monday the virus may have spread to two more districts of the Kurgan region in Siberia where bird flu was confirmed in wildfowl last week.

There was no word on Tuesday on the situation in other affected Russian regions -- including Altai, Omsk and Tyumen -- and the adjacent areas of Central Asia's Kazakhstan.

Interfax again: Humans may contract bird flu in 3 Siberian regions - official

NOVOSIBIRSK. Aug 9 (Interfax-Siberia) - Three regions in Siberia - Novosibirsk and Omsk regions and the Altai territory - are in pandemic phase two with regard to bird flu. This means that there is a high probability that humans may contract the disease, head of Rospotrebnadzor consumers' rights oversight authority Gennady Onishchenko told a conference in Novosibirsk on Tuesday.

"There is every indication in Novosibirsk and Omsk regions and the Altai territory that they are in interpandemic phase two, according to the classification of the World Health Organization," he said.
Onishchenko said that the phase means the absence of registered cases of sickness in humans but a sufficient probability that the virus circulating among birds may cause such a sickness.

Tie Breaker or Tie Maker?

Agence France Presse: Bird flu found in Siberia

August 09, 2005. RUSSIA'S chief sanitary doctor said overnight that bird flu of the H5N1 strain that can be transmitted to humans had been found in three Siberian regions, with sickness also observed among birds in two other Siberian regions.

"There is every reason to believe that... the H5N1 strain of bird flu has been transferred by wild birds from Southeast Asia to the three above-mentioned areas," RIA-Novosti quoted Gennady Onishchenko as saying, referring to the Siberian regions of Novosibirsk, Altai and Omsk.
"The sub-type circulating among animals can reasonably be expected to cause sickness among humans," Onishchenko said.

[snip]

"It is not spreading and will disappear when weather conditions change," said Oleg Kiselyov, head of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences's flu institute at a press conference in Saint Petersburg on Tuesday.

"There are absolutely no cases of contamination of people in Russia and if there have been no cases so far that means there will not be any," Kiselyov said.

The Envelope Please . . .

• Two contradictory reports from Reuters.
• Two contradictory reports from Interfax.
• One self-contradictory report from AFP.

AFP gets the efficiency award.

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H5N1 reported in Tibet

Reuters has just reported that avian flu has been found near Lhasa. While the type of bird was not specified by the Chinese, the assumption is that chickens were infected.

Some people may think it's not a big deal—too bad for the chickens and geese, maybe, but that's all. But the disease is already creating economic and ecological havoc in regions where it's broken out, which include some very poor communities with few resources. That in itself is cause for concern.

Added to that is the growing likelihood of dangerous mutations: more viruses, in more hosts, means more chance that a particular virus will change into one that transmits easily and lethally between humans. If it happens in a poor area, among people with little or no medical infrastructure, so much the worse for everyone.

Tibet is no longer far away.

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H5N1 Bird Flu Confirmed in Kazakhstan - Recombinomics

H5N1 Bird Flu Confirmed in Kazakhstan Recombinomics, PA - Aug 10, 2005 " High pathogenic avian influenza Type A with the antigenic variant of H5N1 was discovered in pathological material and blood serum taken from wildfowl and ... Migratory Birds Target Taiwan Recombinomics all 2 related

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Hungary to start bird flu vaccine trials in weeks - Reuters AlertNet

Hungary to start bird flu vaccine trials in weeks Reuters AlertNet, UK - 2 hours ago BUDAPEST, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Hungary will start clinical trials on humans of a vaccine against the H5N1 strain of avian flu, which is dangerous to humans, in a ... Migratory birds bring possibility of threat Taiwan Headlines Scientists studying birds for influenza Juneau Empire Carriers of avian flu could migrate here Anchorage Daily News Pittsburgh Post Gazette - all 17 related

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Deadly outbreak contained - Edmonton Sun

Pravda

Deadly outbreak contained Edmonton Sun, Canada - 8 hours ago ... Initially, the Agriculture Ministry said the three were infected by chicken droppings in their backyard that carried the H5N1 strain of the virus. ... Indonesia ends bird flu source probe, case unsolved Reuters AlertNet Bird flu still threatening Indonesia Xinhua all 15 related

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Invest in fight against bird flu - Denver Post

Invest in fight against bird flu Denver Post, CO - 10 hours ago ... The virus - tagged A(H5N1) by scientists - has cropped up in about a dozen countries and caused the deaths of well over 100 million birds, either by the virus ... FOLLOW-UP San Francisco Chronicle Strong Results in US Bird Flu Vaccine Trial; More Tests Needed All American Patriots (press release) Strong Results in US Bird Flu Vaccine Trial High Plains Journal RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty - Earthtimes.org - all 8 related

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