« 8-03-05 News | Main | 中国医学论坛报评出国际医学十大新闻(注：2005-1-11出的) »
August 04, 2005
8-04-05 Feed
Flu could infect half world's people in year
Ian Sample, science correspondent
Thursday August 4, 2005
The Guardian
An outbreak of flu in rural south-east Asia could spread
around the globe in three months and infect half the
world's population within a year, unless strict measures
to contain it are introduced, scientists said yesterday.
The warning comes from researchers who used
computer models to investigate what would happen if the avian flu virus, which is currently rife among poultry in areas of China, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam,
mutated into a form that spread easily among humans.
Scientists believe it is only a matter of time before the virus, known as H5N1, mutates to become more infectious to humans, possibly by swapping genes with the human flu virus.
Avian Flu update
From
Estate
Legacy Vaults Blog (feed)
Today 9:42:09 AM
Запрет на ввоз животноводческой продукции
... пресс-служба Минсельхоза РФ, при исследовании патологического материала от больных птиц из Новосибирской области был обнаружен вирус гриппа птиц типа А, субтип H5N1.
From Яндекс.Новости: Общество (feed)
Today 9:40:11 AM
CHRONOLOGY-Key dates in Asian bird flu outbreak. (BIRDFLU-CHRONOLOGY) 2005-08-04 09:10:58
Here is a brief chronology of the spread of Asian bird flu:
Dec 15, 2003 - South Korea confirms a highly contagious type of bird flu at a chicken farm near Seoul and begins a mass cull of poultry when the virus rapidly spreads across the country.
Dec 31 - Taiwan reports its first case and later destroys thousands of chickens with a milder form of avian flu.
Jan 8, 2004 - Vietnam says bird flu has been found on many of its poultry farms.
Jan 13 - The World Health Organisation confirms the deaths of three people in Vietnam are linked to bird flu.
Jan 25 - Indonesia discovers an outbreak among chickens.
Jan 26 - Thailand confirms the death of a six-year-old boy, its first human death from bird flu.
Feb 12 - The World Health Organization confirms tests show no evidence bird flu is passing from person to person.
March 16 - China declares it has stamped out the disease in all 49 hotbeds and has had no reports among poultry for 29 days.
May 26 - Thailand reports a fresh case of bird flu is found in several dead chickens on a university research farm in the northern city of Chiang Mai.
Aug 19 - Malaysia says a strain of bird flu has been found in two chickens that died in a northern village near the Thai border in the country’s first bird flu outbreak.
Sept 27 - Thailand says it has found its first known probable case of a human being infecting another with bird flu. It insisted it was an isolated incident that posed little risk to the greater population.
Dec 15 - Taiwan says it has discovered two strains of avian flu in migratory birds in the northern part of the island, the milder H5N2 strain and also the H5N6 strain.
April 5, 2005 - The UN says that the H7 strain of bird flu previously undetected in Asia has been found in North Korea.
July 8 - The Philippines says it has suffered its first case of bird flu after ducks were found to be infected. It later says that it is free from any highly pathogenic strain of bird flu.
July 20 - Indonesia confirms its first deaths from bird flu.
July 26 - Japan says a fresh outbreak of bird flu has been discovered on a chicken farm in eastern Japan. All outbreaks in the Ibaraki prefecture since late June have been confirmed as the weak H5N2 strain.
July 29 - Vietnam reports that bird flu has killed two more people, taking the toll to 42. The H5N1 virus has also killed 12 people in Thailand, four in Cambodia and three in Indonesia.
-- Russia’s Siberian region of Novosibirsk confirms cases of the H51N strain of bird flu. Two other regions, Altai and Tyumen have also since confirmed cases.
Aug 4 - Kazakhstan confirms an outbreak in late July in the Pavlodar region. Veterinary officials say the virus is avian influenza, but have yet to define the exact type.
REUTERS Reut13:10 08-04-05
Copyright: (c) TWP, AP, Reuters, others as appropriate
On the mirage of stopping bird flu
Indeed the requirements for the claim to be valid essentially make this
a "trans-scientific proposition," i.e., one that can
be phrased in scientific terms but not practically
carried out, like weighing the moon on a balance.
Here are the conditions required to "stop" an outbreak that begins in Thailand, according to two research teams, one in England, the other in the US:
Firstly, the virus would have to be identified while confined to about 30 people, they told Nature.
In addition, antiviral drugs would have to be distributed rapidly to the 20,000 individuals nearest those infected
They estimate an international stockpile of three million courses of the treatment would be enough to contain an outbreak.
But it would mean having to deploy the drug anywhere in the world at short notice.
Another team from Emory University in Atlanta, the US, led by Dr Ira Longini, simulated an outbreak in a population of 500,000 in rural Thailand, where people mixed in a variety of settings, including households, schools, workplaces and a hospital.
Provided targeted use of antiviral drugs was adopted within 21 days it would be possible to contain an outbreak, they found, as long as each infected person was not likely to infect more than an average of 1.6 people.
If it was more infective than this, household quarantines would also be necessary, they said.
These expressions of hope are based on some
rather shaky foundations, computer models with many
assumptions built in (among them an R0 of
1.6 in the Longini model, likely an underestimate).
I am not knocking computer models. I construct and
use them myself. But they shouldn't be used in
circumstances where the margin of error is as slight
as in this case and they shouldn't be interpreted to
provide reliable assurance things would evolve in
the way predicted. They may be useful for
understanding the qualitative dynamics of disease
spread, but in this case we are too close to the
sensitive points (the bifurcation points in the
parameter regimes) to have any confidence in the
results.
Even if the models were valid (a big "if"), just
a glance at the initial conditions above would show
the futility of relying on this strategy. Early
detection, a relatively small cluster, rapid
distribution of an antiviral stockpile that doesn't
exist, all in a three week period in a rural area
with little public health infrastructure and porous
borders. And that would be the minimal requirement.
So I hate to disagree with Elizabeth Halloran of Emory, an infectious disease epidemiologist of note and a genuine expert. In her view, as reported by the BBC,
"Our findings indicate that we have reason to be somewhat hopeful.
"If - or, more likely, when - an outbreak occurs in humans, there is a chance of containing it and preventing a pandemic."
There is no reason at all to be hopeful. If the pandemic never materializes it will be from dumb luck or for biological reasons we as yet don't understand. The task at hand, as I have noted in many other posts, is to prepare to manage the consequences, not hold out false hope that anything we do can avoid them altogether.
From Effect
Measure (feed)
Today 8:44:08 AM
Птичий грипп: катастрофические сценарии
From Inopressa.ru
(feed)
Today 8:42:04 AM
China Outbreak: More Questions...and Yale Weighs In
(At this point, consider this an open call for reader feedback and resource tips. Please e-mail at any time with additional information or insight, or comment on appropriate posts.)
The first is the following e-mail from a doctor (Dr. Patricia Doyle) with observations on the outbreak:
Jeff, I think the outbreak in China is something other than straight H5N1 bird flu. As I mentioned, it is different. Man-tweaked. Maybe their Plum Island had power outage and loss of biosecurity. If dealing with an altered bird flu - or worse, Ebola/flu - then we would see the high death toll that we are seeing. I think Dr. Niman knew all along that the Chinese bird flu samples would be different.
China had admitted using Amantadine yet, the bird flu was amantadine sensitive. I am sure that the Chinese bird flu is a new type. All of the Boxun News service reports claim various diseases, Ebola, an Ebola with up to 6 month incubation, FMD, Bird Flu etc etc. Whatever is happening centered in Qinghai - and is spreading.
The military involvement tells me that the Boxun reports were accurate.
They have chaos there now and I surely hope that our government will do something to prevent it from coming here. It won't be popular but we may have to really watch our borders for immigrating Chinese. Those who can leave China will...if the conditions are as reported. Some may head for North America.
First, some background neglected in the previous post that warrants mention in order to understand this email.
While hesitant to use the same source to vet the previous one way or the other, this entry is nothing more than the text of an article from the South China Morning Post. The Post writer explains the 'Boxun' reports Dr. Doyle referenced.
A US-based Chinese-language news website known as Boxun, or "Abundant News", has riveted the online medical community over the past month with a series of reports from China's Qinghai province about an alleged bird flu cover-up. One report - said to be leaked by a Chinese official - claimed that 121 people were dead from avian influenza, or H5N1.
China has denied the claims, but for anyone who follows both Chinese-language underground news agencies and the medical organisations that obsessively monitor emerging viruses, the Boxun reports and the international online response to them recalls early 2003, when news emerged of a killer virus in Guangdong. The virus was Sars, which became a menace overnight after a Boxun report interrupted a long media clampdown by Beijing.
Boxun's Sars story was translated into English and repeated by ProMED-mail, an online reporting system that keeps subscribers informed of outbreaks of new diseases. Now Boxun is either leading the pack again, or leading it astray - and Boxun's founder doesn't rule out the latter. Nevertheless, ProMED picked up the story once again and the world's online community of virus watchers has been discussing it since.
Dr. Doyle and the SCMP journalist both seem wary of the
sensational
specifics of Boxun's reports (Ebola in Sichuan Province and
spreading), but seem to universally acknowledge that they
are nonetheless onto something again just as they were with
China's SARS/Avian Flu cover-up.
So that's Boxun explained. You will see it again. Direct link to their BBS-type news is here.
Second, Dr. Doyle refers to a Dr. Niman who predicted ('knew all along') that the bird flu strains would be different.
One can find some of his thoughts here. He has posted observations at Recombinomics.com that suggest what is in China at the moment is a recombination (mutation, if you will) of Ebola and Avian Flu (Bird Flu, or H5N1).
Dr. Niman was essentially asked how this could happen (short version of the question):
I was starting to wonder if the presence of the same sequence segments in Ebola and H5N1 required dual infection (somebody or some animal having both Ebola and avian flu at the same time).
I guess that the dissemination of viral sequences can have lots of intermediary steps, where several links in a chain of dual infection and recombination can eventually spread a sequence so it ends up in both H5N1 and Ebola. H5N1 and Ebola never needed to meet directly in one individual (or a bioweapons lab for that matter) to share some sequences in common.
Dr. Niman deadpanned what my untrained eye considered the obvious:
First H5N1 isoaled was from a chicken is scotland in 1959. First H5N1 in Asia was 1996. H5 and Ebola have met in the same cell.
Additionally, Pundita directs to a new credible source of analysis on the issue (finally), Yale. Yale Global Online is lending their credibility to the possibility that what is now in China (and spreading) may indeed be a recombination of Bird Flu (aka Avian Flu or H5N1) and the Ebola Virus.
China’s official Xinhua news agency recently ascribed the deaths and illnesses of 68 people in Sichuan province to a common swine bug called streptococcus suis. A close examination, however, raises speculation that provincial authorities may be prevaricating. Not only is this infection rare in human beings, but the bacterium can be readily treated and seldom leads to mortality. China’s reputation for information censorship raises additional worries. As was the case in Qinghai – where Chinese officials denied human cases of bird flu and jailed reporters who detailed human fatalities – Chinese authorities may be hiding the truth behind the illnesses in Sichuan. The large geographical distances covered by this mysterious disease suggests viral transmission by migratory birds. This is highly conceivable given the southward migratory pattern of birds and Sichuan’s location – directly to the southeast of Qinghai province. As this Straits Times article implies, the possibility of bird flu warrants enormous concern, especially given recent reports of a possible swap between the bird flu and ebola viruses, making the deadly virus even more dangerous.
–YaleGlobal
Yale's weighing in on the developments lends much credibility that has been elusive to date.
If this is the case, just how did Ebola make its way to China? Or, did Avian Flu make its way to Africa and back in a new form? Ebola is known to date only on the continent of Africa. Did Ebola make its way to China? Was it already there via Chinese bioweapons experiments? Regardless of where a recombination may have occured, the important question remains: Is Dr. Niman correct?
Again, more questions.
While this unfolds, this series of posts will appear essentially as a rolling notepad intended to share information and foster feedback and research by others.
If this is indeed a recombination of Ebola and Avian Flu, what we have on our hands is an unbelievably lethal virus (without cure) that melts and dissolves the infected's internal organs in an agonizing death...now carried by migratory birds from region to region.
There are comparisons being made already to a potential similar to that of the 1918 flu pandemic. The alacrity of its spread through the United States is effecitvely represented by a PBS graphic that is part of their documentary and part of their 'American Experience' series online. While worthy of consideration, this disease spreading at that speed would seem unlikely unless it became an airborne transmitted virus (coughing, etc.). Currently it is understood not to be. But, with no cure, it is cause for concern and further research and awareness on our part.
While initially seeming 'sensational', there appears to be enough plausibility that warrants a continued and much closer look into the possibility of an Avian Flu / Ebola recombination & outbreak in China. If we dismiss it as sensationalism and we are wrong, the consequences are potentially too great to fathom.
Already there are reports that H5N1 Avaian Flu has spread to parts of Russia and that Russia has shut down all transport of fowl from China as a result. Is the diagnosis of H5N1 in Russia only half correct?
Developing...
From The Word Unheard
(feed)
Today 8:06:16 AM
INTRODUCTION The rapid spread of bird flu, which i...
The rapid spread of bird flu, which is not uncommon among chickens and other fowl, has caught the attention of global health authorities. Click on the topics to learn more about the illness and why scientists are so concerned
WHAT IS IT?
There are at least 15 different types of avian influenza that routinely infect birds around the world. The current outbreak is caused by a strain known as H5N1, which is highly contagious among birds and rapidly fatal. Unlike many other strains of avian influenza, it can be transmitted to humans, causing severe illness and death.Bird flu is not the same as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). Although their symptoms are similar, SARS is caused by completely different viruses. Influenza viruses also are more contagious and cannot be as readily contained as SARS by isolating people who have the infection.
WHY THE CONCERN?
Influenza viruses are highly unstable and have the
ability to mutate rapidly, potentially jumping from one
animal species to another. Scientists fear the bird flu
virus could evolve into a form that is easily spread
between people, resulting in an extremely contagious and
lethal disease. This could happen if someone already
infected with the human flu virus catches the bird flu.
The two viruses could recombine inside the victim’s
body, producing a hybrid that could readily spread from
person to person. The resulting virus likely would be
something humans have never been exposed to before. With
no immune defenses, the infection could cause
devastating illness, such as occurred in the 1918-19
Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 40
million to 50 million worldwide.
TRANSMISSION
In rural areas, the H5N1 virus is
easily spread from farm to farm among domestic poultry
through the feces of wild birds. The virus can survive
for up to four days at 71 F (22 C) and more than 30 days
at 32 F (0 C). If frozen, it can survive indefinitely.So
far in this outbreak, human cases have been blamed on
direct contact with infected chickens and their
droppings. People who catch the virus from birds can
pass it on to other humans, although the disease is
generally milder in those who caught it from an infected
person rather than from birds.If the virus mutates and
combines with a human influenza virus, it could be
spread through person-to-person transmission in the same
way the ordinary human flu virus is spread.
HISTORY
The current outbreak of bird flu is different from
earlier ones in that officials have been unable to
contain its spread. An outbreak in 1997 in Hong Kong was
the first time the virus had spread to people, but it
was much more quickly contained. A total of 18 people
were hospitalized with six reported deaths. About 1.5
million chickens were killed in an effort to remove the
source of the virus.
Unlike the 1997 scare, this outbreak has spread more
rapidly to other countries, increasing its exposure to
people in varied locations and raising the likelihood
that the strain will combine with a human influenza
virus.
SYMPTOMS
Bird flu can cause a range of symptoms in humans. Some patients report fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches. Others suffer from eye infections, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress and other severe and life-threatening complications.
TREATMENT
Flu drugs exist that may be used both to prevent people from catching bird flu and to treat those who have it. The virus appears to be resistant to two older generic flu drugs, amantadine and rimantadine. However, the newer flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza are expected to work – though supplies could run out quickly if an outbreak occurs.Currently there is no vaccine, although scientists are working to develop one. It probably will take several months to complete and may not be ready in time to stop a widespread human outbreak, if one occurs.
PREVENTION
Rapid elimination of the H5N1 virus
among infected birds and other animals is essential to
preventing a major outbreak. The World Health
Organization recommends that infected or exposed flocks
of chickens and other birds be killed in order to help
prevent further spread of the virus and reduce
opportunities for human infection. However, the agency
warns that safety measures must be taken to prevent
exposure to the virus among workers involved in culling.
One more case of human infection suspected in Vietnam
Specimens from a 49-year-old woman from the northern Ha Tay province of Viet Nam have tested positive to H5N1 avian influenza virus infection, according to a report in the local newspaper Labor on Tuesday [2 Aug 2005]. The woman from the Quoc Oai district needs respiratory assistance at the Institute of Tropical Diseases in Hanoi, although she no longer has a fever. Earlier, she received treatment at a provincial hospital for 3 days starting on 27 Jul 2005. The woman had bought a chicken at a local market and cooked it. Local healthcare agencies have kept close surveillance on areas where she lives and on those who have close contact with her.
[...] To deal with possible new outbreaks among poultry, Viet Nam is vaccinating chickens and ducks in northern Nam Dinh province and southern Tien Giang province against avian influenza viruses, including H5N1. It plans to vaccinate over 2.9 million fowl this month [August 2005].
The full story at Xinhuanet, via ProMedMail. This case and the two reported last week have not yet been confirmed by the WHO.
From
Avian Flu - What we need to know (feed)
Today 7:45:02 AM
Scientists have a plan to prevent bird flu pandemicc
According to scientists the H5N1 strain of
bird flu circulating in Asia which could mutate into a
lethal strain and cause a pandemic, could be contained.
From Medical buzz
(feed
Today 7:04:53 AM
From Medical buzz (feed
Computer Model Could Help Prevent Avian Flu Pandemicc
Dr.
Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial
College London and a scholar at Howard Hughes Medical
Institute, headed a study to evaluate feasibility of
computer modeling to prevent the pandemic of avian flu. The
starting point was a single patient with mutated
H5N1 influenza A virus in a rural village in
Thailand. To read what it takes to contain the epidemic, go
to the
news section at Howard Hughes Medical Institute. Very
scary stuff.
More info and accompanying
video of epidemic model at the National Institute of
General Medical Sciences...
Copyright 2005
Dr.
Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial
College London and a scholar at Howard Hughes Medical
Institute, headed a study to evaluate feasibility of
computer modeling to prevent the pandemic of avian flu. The
starting point was a single patient with mutated
H5N1 influenza A virus in a rural village in
Thailand. To read what it takes to contain the epidemic, go
to the
news section at Howard Hughes Medical Institute. Very
scary stuff.
More info and accompanying video of epidemic model at the National Institute of General Medical Sciences...
Copyright 2005
Avian flu casts shadow over beauty of China's bird lakee
So many gulls, geese,
larks, egrets, swans and cormorants fly in and out of Bird
Island - actually a small peninsula jutting out from the
western end of the 60-mile saltwater lake - that locals
claim the skies are sometimes darkened by feathered traffic.
In autumn and spring, the migration of hundreds of thousands
of birds is such a glorious sight that Qinghai Lake draws
tourists from all over the world. But after the first mass
outbreak of avian flu among wild birds this summer, the
resort is attracting attention from a different group of
bird watchers: international scientists, health officials
and agricultural experts. Virologists writing in the
journals Science and Nature warned last month that Bird
Island could become a nexus for the H5N1
virus to mutate and spread across the globe, possibly
becoming more virulent and developing into a deadly
pandemic. Until now, the disease has been concentrated
largely in poultry-related communities in Asia, where it has
led to the culling of 120 million fowl and the deaths of at
least 63 people. But in Qinghai, the pathogen has struck a
different population, killing more than 5,000 wild birds,
mostly bar-headed geese, but also great black-headed gulls,
brown-headed gulls, ruddy shelducks and common cormorants.
Other species may be carriers, having been infected without
developing symptoms, as is often the case with ducks. But
the Chinese authorities have yet to release the results of
research into the outbreak, which has left the international
community guessing about the prevalence and virulence of the
Qinghai strain of H5N1. The lack of
information has prompted increasingly anxious calls for more
transparency. With the next big migration season due to
start at the end of the month, the World Health Organisation
says there is an urgent need for more information about the
outbreak before the birds head south and west for the
winter. "Time is running out," said Julie Hall, the WHO
official in charge of communicable diseases in China. "This
is an international issue. We need to give an early warning
to countries on the birds' routes." Rangers at Qinghai Lake
and local guidebooks say the birds will head to southern
China, but international organisations suggest they will
migrate across a far wider area, stretching from breeding
grounds in Russia during the summer, down to wintering areas
in south-east Asia and India. If so, their paths will
crisscross the routes of birds that fly to Europe and
America. But there are so many different species that nobody
knows for sure. "There are almost no studies of the
migration patterns of these birds," said an official at the
Institute of Zoology in the Chinese Academy of Science.
"This is an area where Chinese research is lacking." In some
places, the warnings may come too late. Last week, Russia
reported its first case of bird flu. About 300 poultry were
infected in Siberia, which is thought to be one of the
summer breeding areas for wild birds from Qinghai. In June,
two outbreaks were reported in Xinjiang province, next door
to Qinghai. The government refused to allow international
health and agriculture officials to visit the area, but
officials said migratory birds appeared to have spread the
disease to local poultry stocks. Since the first dead goose
was found in Qinghai, the priority of the authorities has
been to minimise the economic damage through containment of
the disease and scientific research into its origins.
Workers on Bird Island say there is video footage of the
first infected birds, which died on May 3. "We watched
everything by remote camera," said an official who declined
to be named. "There were three birds which were obviously
suffering. They were fluttering around in a circle that had
been formed by the other healthy birds. When I reported this
to my boss, he told me not to touch them. The hygiene
department came in soon after with masks and gloves." Police
and troops were sent in to cordon off a 30-mile radius in
the sparsely populated Gancha district. The entire local
stock of 20,000 poultry was culled without compensation.
"Our family had five chickens and we were told we had to
kill them all or we would be fined. It was a real blow,"
said Zhang Gi-hua, whose household income is less than £140
per year. "I used to buy my children's pens and schoolbooks
with the money from the eggs." No visitors were allowed
inside a second 10-mile radius inner cordon without surgical
masks and gloves. Those living inside were given
disinfectant and hygiene lectures by local officials.
Anti-government websites spread rumours that more than 100
people had been killed by the disease, but nobody in the
area had heard about any human deaths. Chinese authorities
have clamped down heavily on scientists whose research has
differed from the official version of events, which is that
the disease spread from outside China's borders. The Joint
Influenza Research Centre, a laboratory run by universities
in Hong Kong and China, published studies suggesting the
strain of H5N1 virus found in the Qinghai
birds might have been picked up from poultry farms in
southern China. Punishment was swift: the centre closed last
week after the ministry of agriculture said it lacked
biological safety standards. The government has also issued
new regulations restricting research into H5N1
to three government laboratories. In Qinghai, the
authorities claim the outbreak is over. Last week, the
cordons were lifted and tourists were allowed back on to
Bird Island. But without research into the seemingly healthy
birds, the virus may simply be dormant, waiting to wing its
way across the globe. That risk does not appear to worry the
locals, most of whom are just relieved that they can resume
their normal lives. Among them were the monks at the Tibetan
lamasery in Shatou, a mile from Bird Island. Geri Caidan, a
20-year-old acolyte, said: "We believed Buddha would keep us
safe so we chanted scriptures every day and prayed for the
disease to leave the area." The question is, where will it
go next?http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1539974,00.html
From A World
on the Edge (feed)
Today 6:49:42 AM
From A World
on the Edge (feed)
Today 6:49:42 AM
[2005-08-04] Quantas são as perdas humanas pela Influenza
Aviária?
From Agrosoft
Brasil (feed)
Today 6:21:20 AM
Vietnam vaccinates poultry to fight bird flu
From Moreover
Technologies - Southeast Asia news (feed)
Today 5:53:00 AM
