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August 31, 2005
H5 infections in Ibaraki, Japan
Antibody tests showed Tuesday that chickens at seven more farms in Ibaraki Prefecture may have been infected with a bird flu virus of the H5 strain in the past, the prefectural government said.
Chickens at two farms near the seven in the town of Ogawa have already tested positive for antibodies to the virus.
The prefectural government imposed a ban on transferring chickens and eggs from an area surrounding the seven farms to places outside.
It will also decide whether to cull the chickens at the farms after hearing from an expert panel of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
The prefectural government has confirmed that chickens at 14 farms were infected with the avian influenza.
The story comes from Kyodo News.
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Finska måsar bar inte värsta virusen
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熵
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ANTICIPATION
>Grippe aviaire : la France va constituer un stock de 200 millions de masques
LE MONDE | 30.08.05 | 13h47 • Mis à jour le 30.08.05 | 13h47
Le chef de l'Etat et le chef du gouvernement français ont, lundi 29 août, tenu à montrer publiquement l'importance qu'ils accordent désormais à la menace sanitaire inhérente à la diffusion, par les oiseaux migrateurs, d'une nouvelle souche H5N1 de virus de la grippe aviaire....
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Reuters AlertNet - Experts see Alaska as US front against bird flu
Reuters AlertNet - Experts see Alaska as US front against bird flu: "Experts see Alaska as US front against bird flu
30 Aug 2005 17:33:09 GMT
Source: Reuters
Background CRISIS PROFILE: Death and displacement in Chechnya
MORE
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent
WASHINGTON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Bird experts working in some of the most remote areas of Alaska have begun checking migrating birds for avian influenza to see if they are spreading the feared virus out of Asia.
A team heads off later this week for the Alaskan Peninsula to test Steller's eiders, a type of duck, for the virus, U.S. Geological Survey experts said. Other teams have already begun testing geese and ducks in other refuges, taking advantage of regular ecological studies to test birds migrating from Asia for the H5N1 virus.
'We think that Alaska is likely to be the front line,' said Hon Ip, a virologist at the USGS National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin. Other states are vulnerable, too, he said.
'There are birds that fly directly across the Pacific from Southeast Asia to our western states like California, Oregon and Washington,' Ip added in a telephone interview.
The H5N1 avian influenza virus, which re-emerged in China in 2003, has caused the death or destruction of more than 100 million birds across Asia, from Japan to Russia's Siberia. Migrating birds in China and Mongolia have been found to be infected with the virus.
So far it has killed more than 50 people, although it does not easily infect humans. Experts fear it will eventually acquire the ability to spread easily from person to person and cause a global pandemic of exceptionally deadly influenza.
No one is sure how it is spreading, but migrating birds are a prime suspect. Officials fear birds such as ducks and"
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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Thailand? - Recombinomics
| H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Thailand? Recombinomics, PA - ... they are raising. The confirmation of H5N1 in domestic chickens in Thailand may signal the arrival of H5N wild bird flu. As noted ... |
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Pigs, bulls die in southern Vietnam
According to Thanh Nien Daily, 200 pigs and 5 bulls in southern Vietnam have died of a mysterious disease. Symptoms included diarrhea, bleeding legs, and drooling. Authorities were investigating the possibility that the animals had been imported from Cambodia. Over a thousand pigs, and over fifty bulls and cows, came down with the disease but appear to have survived. The story mentions no human cases.
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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Bulgaria?Big News Network.com - Bulgaria News
European Union has requested Bulgaria to take the urgent control measure. The above machine translation of a boxun report suggestPosted by dymaxion at 12:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
No Matter Where I Am In the World.....Zen and the Art of Living It Up
Signs of bird flu again detected in Japanese poultry, report says
Authorities have detected signs of bird flu at seven additional poultry farms near a previously affected ranch outside Tokyo, a news report said Tuesday.
Antibody tests showed the chickens may be infected with a virus from the H5 family, and officials have restricted movement of fowl and eggs in the affected area, in Ibaraki Prefecture just northeast of Tokyo, Kyodo News Agency said.
Signs of the antibodies means the chickens were infected in the past but had survived.
Local authorities are still deciding whether to cull the birds.
Japan's Agriculture Ministry identified a previous outbreak of bird flu in Ibaraki last week amid reports that 260,000 chickens would be culled. The strain involved is less virulent that the H5N1 variety that has ravaged poultry in Southeast Asia since 2003 and killed more than 60 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
Bird flu hit Japan last year for the first time in decades, killing or prompting the extermination of more than 300,000 chickens. Japan also confirmed a human case of bird flu in December, but no deaths have been reported.
An outbreak in June forced the culling of about 94,000 birds at another farm outside Tokyo. It was caused by the H5N2 bird flu strain, a variety not known to infect humans. (AP)
August 30, 2005
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Diseased seagulls in Finland not affected with H5N1 virus: EC ...Big News Network.com - Finland News
Xinhuanet) -- European Commission (EC) spokesman Philip Tod said on Monday that the suspected cases of seagulls affected with H5N1 virus in Finland were only aPosted by dymaxion at 12:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
France reinforces defenses against bird fluThe World > Russia - Waypath Topic Streams
PARIS (Reuters) - France said on Tuesday it would toughen defenses against the potential arrival of bird flu in the country, reinforcing checks at airports and building stockpiles of vaccines in the event of a human pandemic. France has said there is a moderate but real risk that the H5N1 deadly strain of bird flu that has hit Asia and Russia could spread to Europe via migratory birds. "Reserves of antiviral medicines, vaccines and protection measures for the population will be increasedPosted by dymaxion at 12:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Reply to Web and Magazine articles on the potential for a flu pandemicAvian Flu Watch
Quiplashr posted a reply:
The Sunday Times - Britain, August 28, 2005
Focus: Atishoo, Atishoo, we all fall down?
www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1753479_1,00.html
Focus: A deadly bird flu, lethal to some animals, is spreading towards Britain. How serious is the threat to humans and what can be done to counter it? Jonathan Calvert, Sarah-Kate Templeton and Will Iredale report
It is the drug of the moment and Ken Livingstone, the London mayor, has ordered 100,000 courses of it. Several British companies are believed to be building stockpiles. Some individuals are said to be paying three times the retail price trying to buy illicit supplies through overseas websites.
The drug is Tamiflu, a prescription antiviral medicine thought to be the only protection available against a potential doomsday virus winging its way towards Britain.
Earlier this month a deadly bird flu, which has been spreading out from Asia, reached Russia. Yesterday a suspected case was reported in Finland, but the exact strain is not yet clear.
The H5N1 virus has killed tens of millions of animals, particularly chickens in Asia, but also other species. So far the strain has infected very few humans — only about 120 — but in those it has attacked it has been highly lethal. Half of them died.
The fear is that H5N1, like all flu viruses, will continue mutating and could turn into a strain that infects humans and passes from one person to another as easily as the common cold.
“If we do get human-to- human transmission, millions will die,” said Dr Nigel Higson, chairman of the primary care virology group.
“With huge numbers of people using air travel, it will move round the world very quickly. A large proportion of people in Africa would die. In western countries where we will hopefully have an avian flu vaccine and antivirals, 25% of the population will be infected and the death rate will be between 3% and 10% of the population. The fatalities will not just be the sick and elderly.”
Experts believe such a pandemic could cause a catastrophe on the scale of the 1918 Spanish flu that killed 50m people in 18 months.
Last month the Department of Health invited manufacturers to tender for a contract to develop and supply a vaccine against the strain. It is also spending up to £100m buying 14.6m courses of Tamiflu — an indication of how seriously it is taking the threat.
There is one big unknown: whether the virus can or will become transmissible between humans. Scientists have little evidence that it can do so at present and nobody knows whether it will be able to do so in the future.
“Although we expect this virus to become a pandemic we have no proof as yet that it will happen,” said Higson.
“To have a pandemic we have got to have a new virus.”
FLU is one of the most mutable viruses in the world, constantly shuffling its array of genes into new forms. The type known as H5N1 is thought to have originated in ducks from the Guangdong province of China in the late 1990s and drew particular attention because it proved devastating in poultry.
Almost every chicken that contracted H5N1 was dead within 48 hours. In 1997 the first human cases emerged during an outbreak on poultry farms in Hong Kong. Eighteen people suffered respiratory infections and six died.
Although more than 1.5m chickens were slaughtered in Hong Kong in an attempt to eradicate the virus, it managed to survive elsewhere — some animals can carry it without dying — and came back even stronger than before.
In January 2003 a tougher “Z” strain emerged in Thailand and Vietnam, capable of killing rats and later pigs. It also killed 45 tigers that were fed raw chicken in Thai zoos; more than 100 others had to be destroyed after becoming infected. National authorities ordered the slaughter of more than 120m chickens as the strain spread to Cambodia, China, Indonesia and Malaysia. This summer more than 120,000 poultry in six regions of western Siberia were destroyed after the discovery of H5N1.
Wild species — in particular bar-headed geese — were found to be infected in Siberia and Mongolia, which witnessed the mass deaths of birds around Lake Erhel in its Huvsgel province.
Several experts feared that the outbreaks had brought the virus within range of Europe through the flightpaths of migrating birds.
In Holland — where a similar avian flu outbreak five years ago led to 30m chickens being culled — officials last week compelled farmers to bring all their poultry indoors.
John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary’s School of Medicine in London, called on Britain to take similar precautions and Bob McCracken, president of the British Veterinary Association, warned that migrating birds would “inevitably” carry bird flu to the UK at some stage.
However, Debbie Reynolds, the government’s chief veterinary officer, was more cautious after discussing the threat with European Union experts last week; she said the risk of the virus reaching Britain was “remote or low”.
Nevertheless, wildlife is being monitored around the country for any sign of avian flu. If it does arrive it could could easily spread across a range of wild birds — waterfowl are particularly vulnerable — and other animals.
Nor is it simply a problem for the countryside: many migrating birds land at wetlands near cities, such as Barnes, west London, and Martin Mere near Liverpool. Domestic cats that eat H5N1- infected birds could catch the virus, as has proved to be the case in Thailand.
So far studies of the virus’s human victims have concluded that they mostly contracted H5N1 through close contact with diseased or dead birds. The virus is found in both the faeces and raw meat. Most infections have occurred during the slaughter and defeathering of poultry for cooking. It is common in Asia to buy a live chicken at the market and take it home to eat.
Over the past year health officials in Thailand and Vietnam have also investigated three cases that could be the first evidence of transmission between humans.
In each case the victims had cared for an infected family member and then developed the virus several days later. Health officials have not ruled out the possibility that the virus was transmitted by a shared meal or some other exposure in the home.
If there is any human-to- human infection it is extremely limited at present and it is notable that previous H5-type flu viruses have not generally been transmissible between humans.
However, all three global influenza pandemics in the past 100 years have been linked to strains of bird flu that adapted to humans. While scientists emphasise that this risk is always present, they are particularly concerned now because the H5N1 virus is so lethal.
Victims suffer coughing, headaches, fever, dizziness, diarrhoea and internal bleeding. The autopsy of one child who died from the disease last year is reported to have shown that his lungs had been “torn apart” as his natural defences tried to fight the virus.
Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert in flu epidemics from Imperial College London, said: “This particular bird flu variety generates more severe diseases in humans than most bird flu varieties. It would be more like the 1918 type of pandemic than the 1957 or 1968 pandemics . . . that is potentially a very severe event.”
There is also a belief among some experts that pandemics are cyclical and the next is overdue. Forecasting of such catastrophes, however, is an imprecise science. A mutation turning the virus into a form more infective to humans could happen anywhere in the world — or the virus might become less lethal or, indeed, it might not happen at all.
Health officials have cried wolf about flu before and been wrong. When a soldier suddenly died from swine flu in the US in 1976, experts feared an epidemic, predicting that 1m Americans might perish.
President Gerald Ford ordered a mass vaccination of Americans despite the doubts of drug companies over being able to produce enough vaccine swiftly and safely. The flu epidemic never materialised and the US government paid $90m to claimants who suffered serious side effects from the vaccine.
IN judging how to react there are other factors to consider, too, principally the practical limits on protecting yourself. At present there is no licensed vaccination against H5NI and there is not likely to be one in the near future.
Three weeks ago the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in America reported initial success in trials on a vaccine developed by Sanofi Pasteur, the pharmaceutical company. But the vaccine has yet to receive regulatory approval, which could take months.
It would also take years to produce enough vaccine to immunise the whole of Britain, and by then the virus strain could have changed out of recognition.
Marie-José Quentin-Millet, head of research at Sanofi Pasteur, describes its new vaccine as merely a “dress rehearsal” to build scientific knowledge so that it can be adapted if and when a strain of the virus more infective to humans emerges.
In reality, it is likely that a flu epidemic could be months old by the time anyone gets a vaccination. Even if a suitable vaccine could be produced, few doses would reach the general public. A report by the Department of Health says: “International demand for vaccine will be high. Vaccine will have to be distributed equitably and administered to predetermined priority groups first, according to nationally agreed recommendations.”
The priority groups set out in the report are frontline health workers followed by vital services such as police officers, firemen, the army and undertakers. Most of the population are very unlikely to be offered a vaccine. Given these limitations, the health department has chosen to make its block purchase of Tamiflu. Made by Roche, the drug can be used to protect against contracting the virus or to alleviate the symptoms of those already infected. The full order of 14.6m doses ordered by the health department will not be delivered until March 2007. At present the government has a stockpile of 900,000 doses and they would be offered first to the priority groups. For this reason several organisations are trying to acquire their own stocks, including the London mayor’s office, which spent more than £1m buying antivirals to protect key workers in the capital. Doctors advise strongly against individuals hoarding drugs. “If individuals stock up with pre-orders, the medication will not be there for those who need it when there is an outbreak,” Higson said. There is another problem, too: many of the people who have been infected by bird flu were given Tamiflu, yet they still died. So in the absence of medication, what else could you do if there were an outbreak? According to the contingency plan people would be advised to avoid public transport, crowds, long queues and anywhere else they might encounter carriers of the virus. Most effective, it seems, will be to stay at home and wait until the outbreak is over.
Additional reporting: Nicci Smith, Brussels
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Nanaimo - canada.com network: Scientists, health officials planning for flu pandemicBlogPulse Search Results for: influenza pandemic
The meeting comes as governments around the world ramp up pandemic preparedness efforts in reponse to concerns that the avian influenza strain known as H...TORONTO — Leaders of Canada’s scientific and public health community will meet this week to chart a course for influenza research that could help the c ountry prepare for a flu pandemic....5N1 might be poised to trigger the first flu pandemic since the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69. ... CIHR’s much larger American counterpart, the National Institutes of Health, began scaling up influenza work in early 2004 when the current H5N1 outbreak was i n its infancy....Posted by dymaxion at 12:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 30, 2005
Bar-Headed Goose Flyway from China to India (via Flickr)
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Integrated U.S. Effort Helps Mitigate Spread of Bird Flu in AsiaUS State Dept - Washington File
The U.S. government is pursuing a broad-based, integrated response effort to help mitigate the spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Asia, Dr. Chuck Lambert, deputy under secretary for marketing and regulatory programs at the U.S. Department of Agriculture tells the Washington File.Posted by dymaxion at 12:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Vaccination program starts in Hanoi
A trial poultry vaccination programme began in the Vietnamese capital in a bid to combat bird flu, which has caused 42 deaths in the communist nation.
"After the pilot program, which started Monday, a mass vaccination campaign will be launched in Hanoi between September 15 and 30," Dao Duy Tam, deputy director of Hanoi's agriculture and rural development department, told AFP.
[...] The government, which earlier planned to begin vaccinating 80 percent of its more than 200 million chickens and ducks in October, decided to bring the start forward to September.
Vietnam wants to complete the mass vaccination before winter, which is believed to be the prime time for the virus to spread.
ww.todayonline.com/articles/69425.asp">Source.
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August 29, 2005
Major Migratory Bird Flyways (Flickr)
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Avian Flu Fears Spread.
priority cases to receive scarce pills and vaccinations at the
taxpayers’ expense if the country is hit by a deadly bird flu outbreak.
Workers at the BBC and prominent politicians — such as cabinet ministers — would be offered protection from the virus.
NI_MPU('middle');Ken
Livingstone, the London mayor, has already spent £1m to make sure his
personal office and employees have their own emergency supplies of
100,000 antiviral tablets.
If there is an avian flu pandemic in the coming months there
would be enough drugs to protect less than 2% of the British population
for a week.This is especially rancorous for me for obvious reasons, and as I tend toward skepticism in matters of doomsday predictions, I also tend to get overly indignant when government officials demonstrate a craven me-first attitude.
The virus is no said to be spreading from Asia into Russia. From there, fears are that migratory birds would bring the deadly strain over the Urals and into Western Russia and then to the Balkans, which is seen as a possible gateway to central Europe:Lakes and rivers along the Black Sea coast ranging from Ukraine to
northern Turkey attract millions of birds each winter from an area
stretching from northern Russia to Scandinavia. Europe's largest
wetlands, Romania's Danube delta, and lakes in northern Bulgaria, are
popular among flocks of red-breasted geese from Siberia as well as
white-fronted geese from Scandinavia, Poland, and Germany.
"There is a risk of spreading the deadly strain of flu to local
wildlife if any of them is infected," said Boris Barov, head of
Bulgarian Society for Protection of Birds. Jutzi said countries in southeast Europe may lack the capacity to detect and deal with a widespread outbreak.As it stands now, the fear is that the H5N1 strain would mingle with more standard flu strains and mutate into a sort of super-flu that would spread wider and faster from wild birds to farm poultry:The present European
Commission directive designed to curtail the threat of bird flu is
concerned only with 'high pathogenic' strains, but there are growing
concerns that these can originate from 'low pathogenic' strains which
can be transmitted to poultry from wild birds.
On
Friday, the authorities in Finland detected a case of bird flu in the
north of the country which is thought to be a low pathogenic strain.
The discovery has added to concerns over the speed with which bird flu
is edging towards western Europe.Now, no human has been infected in Russia yet, and the epidemic there seems to have stabilized. However, the demonstrated failure with regards to BSE some years back should give everyone pause.
Here's a good explanation why the avian flu is suddenly getting attention:The H5N1 strain is particularly dangerous because
it mutates very rapidly and can mix with genes from other viruses thus
allowing it to spread to other species. In addition it is highly
pathogenic and can cause severe disease outbreaks.
With the infection spreading in birds there's an increased risk for
direct infection of humans, too. And if more people become infected, it
also becomes more likely that humans, if infected with human and bird
flu strains at the same time, could serve as the "mixing vessel" for
the emergence of a novel strain that could easily be transmitted from
person to person. Such an event would mark the start of an influenza
pandemic.Efforts continue in the US to quarantine against H5N1 here.
The government plans to more than triple the number of
quarantine stations at airports around the country and hire scores of
health officers as part of a broad plan to try to stop deadly
infectious diseases from entering the United States.
Ten
new stations, at airports stretching from Alaska to Puerto Rico, are
already open or nearing completion, and about 50 new health officers
are undergoing training. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
plans to build an additional seven stations as soon as it can get the
money. Eight stations that have existed for years are gaining staff, so
that when the plan is complete, the country will be blanketed by a
network of 25 centers designed as a first-line of defense against a
global disease pandemic.Apart from the personal, some economists are claiming that a pandemic that rises to the predictions could cause a world-wide depression:
In a first-of-its-kind report on the financial impact of a possible pandemic,
BMO Nesbitt Burns researchers in Canada warned that an outbreak could devastate
the airline and hospitality industries, trigger mass foreclosures and
bankruptcies, decimate insurance companies, and disrupt food chains as people
switched from animal to vegetable diets.Losses would amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.Before we start building bunkers, buying gold and shotguns, it should be noted that most of this is hypothesis mixed with a tinge of paranoia. There is an old adage that economists have reliably predicted ten of the last eight recessions. Also, it has become a habit to over play threats to sell newspapers and bilk the citizenry out of more tax dollars by hyping danger. Maybe a way to play this is to invest in Whole Foods Market or any number of organic, vegetarian food producers.
Still, this could happen, although I would wager that the reality will be somewhere in between a blip and a global disaster. On which side of center we land will be the subject of more coverage before long.
Some links and info come from Maggie (who is canning tomatoes and wearing a gas mask 24/7) and the Avian Flu blog.
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Alaska State, UAF test for avian influenza
http://www.sitnews.us/0805news/081805/081805_avian_flu.html
August 18, 2005Thursday
University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists and the state veterinarian have joined forces at state agricultural fairs to test domestic animals for avian influenza, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation announced today.
Since 2003, highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (AI) H5N1 has become endemic in Southeast Asia with recent outbreaks among poultry in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand. The disease continues to spread, carried by wild waterfowl, which could potentially reach Alaska and Western Europe.
Animal health experts warn that efforts to control the spread of avian flu must focus on better management practices on farms and in open-air markets. There are no large commercial poultry operations in Alaska - most domestic poultry reside in small backyard flocks - but there are a few farms that raise as many as 400 to 500 birds. While surveillance of Alaska's domestic poultry population is difficult, one solution is to test at Alaska's agricultural fairs.
Approximately 150 birds were sampled at the Tanana Valley Fair in August, according to State Veterinarian Dr. Bob Gerlach. "We anticipate sampling more birds at the Kenai Peninsula Fair in Ninilchik today and the State Fair in Palmer August 25-September 5," he said. "The goal is to collect surveillance samples and distribute information about avian influenza and how to prevent the spread of infectious diseases in producers' flocks.
Some prevention methods include: keeping poultry away from water sources that may have been contaminated by wild birds; providing clean clothing and disinfection facilities for employees; and thoroughly disinfecting equipment and vehicles entering and leaving the farm."
Avian influenza prevention should also include better management practices, such as using plastic instead of wooden crates for easier cleaning, as well as cleaning and disinfecting the marketplace after every day of sale, especially in small open-air farms where domestic poultry and waterfowl are allowed to intermingle with wild birds.
According to state and university officials, H5N1 has not been found in Alaska, but plans for nationwide surveillance to detect any introduction could be extremely valuable to public health and agriculture. Researchers will use the information gained from the state fair and wild bird sampling to learn more about the ecology and emergence of avian influenza strains, and to heighten awareness and evaluate the need for surveillance and management practices in domestic flocks and wild birds.
Source of News:
Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation http://www.state.ak.us/dec/
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The nutters are coming ! Huzzah, Huzzah ! The nutters are coming !
As proof (if proof was needed) that there are some "very strange" people out there in Internet land - I introduce you to the "Bird Flu is a New World Order conspiracy to destroy us all". And, before you laugh at the loons, dear reader, please remember ..... these people might indeed live near you !!!! (Shudder)
Oh .... and they don't like anyone who isn't an Anglo-Saxon !!
****************************************
"BASICS:
1. A human Bird Flu epidemic is almost certain to happen at some point, quite possibly in the next few months.
2. There is not likely to be any vaccine available for most people. Even if one is developed then it will take too long to mass produce.
3. Unlike normal flu, bird flu targets the young and healthy as much as anybody else.
4. Death rates could vary but at the moment run at about 75 per cent of those infected.
5. Estimates of total deaths in the West range from about 10% to 30% of the population.
6. Face masks provide little protection as the sub-micron sized viral particles can easily get round gaps.
7. Some argue that you can increase your immunity by taking herbal preparations.
8. The only reliable method of avoiding the disease is to avoid contact with other people who may be carriers.
According to the Times:
"So in the absence of medication, what else could you do if there were an outbreak? According to the contingency plan people would be advised to avoid public transport, crowds, long queues and anywhere
else they might encounter carriers of the virus. Most effective, it seems, will be to stay at home and wait until the outbreak is over. "
CONSPIRACY:
Some people believe that this virus is being artificially created in order to cull the world's population down to a size desired by the International Monocracy (NWO).
a) It is known that the NWO wish to see a reduced world population. Estimates of the desirable population range from 2 billion down to half a billion. The current world population is 6 billion.
b) It is thought that there is a greater desire to cull the third world population rather than Western population which is more productive and has lower birth rates already. However there is no
reason to believe that they do not wish to cull the Western population.
c) The bird flu virus is an unusual and unnatural one compared to most flu viruses giving reason to believe that it is a designer virus. It is assumed that AIDS and SARS were also designer viruses.
d) Genetic sequence from the Spanish flu virus of 1918 (collected in 1933) has been detected in H5N1. There is no explanation other than it being released from a scientific laboratory. The implication is
that there is a deliberate desire to create a new virus with some of the characteristics of the Spanish Flu virus - which caused the worst epidemic of recent times.
e) The Chinese authorities are not being open about the spread of H5N1 and it appears that they have something to hide. A laboratory that has been sequencing the virus has been closed down.
f) A number of leading world scientists who might have expertise in this area have been killed in suspicious circumstances in recent
years.
g) Despite frantic warnings from some scientists about the risk of a global pandemic there is little response from the politicians. The political classes are not mobilising us to deal with the threat.
THOUGHTS:
i) People should not wait on government to provide a lead, but look to their own resources to increase their chance of survival.
ii) People should not trust the words of official bodies such as the WHO, which may be deliberately down-playing the dangers.
iii) People also have to consider other factors such as the possibility of global nuclear war at the same time as the epidemic.
iv) People also have to expect that the authorities will be much fiercer during the crisis than they might expect. It is worth looking back at what happened to farmers during the foot and mouth outbreak. (Some consider this was spread artificially and that the draconian cull policy adopted had no legitimate justification)
http://www.holarchist.org.uk (has a few Bird Flu links on home page)"
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And they dare call ME paranoid ! {The Rabbit gives an insane snigger then barks at the moon}
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Donation of 3 million treatments of oseltamivir to WHO will help early response to an emerging influenza pandemic
http://i-newswire.com/pr44342.html
Today, the World Health Organization (WHO) welcomes Roche's donation of three million treatment courses of the antiviral oseltamivir to a WHO international antiviral stockpile. WHO would use this stockpile to respond quickly to an emerging influenza pandemic.
(I-Newswire) - As part of its work to prepare for, detect and mitigate the impact of an influenza pandemic, WHO is creating an international stockpile of antiviral drugs for rapid response at the start of a pandemic. In an agreement signed today, Roche has committed to providing three million treatment courses ( 30 million capsules ) of oseltamivir ( Tamiflu ) to WHO, which would be dispatched to people in greatest need at the site of an emerging influenza pandemic. Oseltamivir could help to reduce illness and death, and when combined with other measures, could potentially contain an emerging pandemic virus or slow its national and international spread. If it reaches the site of an outbreak quickly, an antiviral stockpile could especially help people in poorer countries. "Right now, many wealthy countries are creating their own stockpiles of antivirals. However poor countries simply cannot afford to do this. If a flu pandemic were to emerge in a poor country for example, these drugs could be flown quickly to the centre of a potential pandemic," said Dr LEE Jong-wook, Director-General of WHO, during an influenza news conference today in Geneva. "We urge other countries to help us build up the international stockpile." The WHO stockpile is meant to complement other measures of international and national preparedness, including any national stockpiles. WHO is carefully monitoring the ongoing avian influenza outbreaks in parts of Asia, Russia and Kazakhstan. WHO warns that these and other outbreaks could evolve into a global influenza pandemic if the avian influenza virus changes into a form which could transmit easily between people. The longer the current avian influenza strain ( H5N1 ) continues to circulate, the greater the possibility that people will be infected with H5N1, and therefore the greater the risk that the virus will adapt to people and trigger a pandemic. Should a pandemic strain emerge, slowing its spread will be vital as this could buy valuable time to produce vaccines against the virus and introduce other emergency measures. Antivirals, used intensively in an area where a pandemic is emerging, combined with other measures such as quarantine and isolation, could help to delay spread. Roche has agreed to reserve three million treatment courses ( 30 million capsules ) for up to five years. The first one million treatment courses ( 10 million capsules ) will be ready early next year, with the remaining two million ( 20 million capsules ) ready before mid-2006. The timing and severity of a flu pandemic is uncertain, but experts predict a pandemic will occur. Therefore WHO continues to urge countries to develop preparedness plans. Planning must include international cooperation between wealthy and poor countries to reduce the opportunity for national and international spread, and to reduce the death, illness and social disruption which have been a feature of all previous influenza pandemics. Overview of the present situationOutbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in poultry are now known to have begun in parts of South-east Asia in mid-2003. These outbreaks have been historically unprecedented in their geographical size and the number of birds affected. So far, around 150 million birds have died during the outbreaks or been destroyed as part of the containment effort. While some of the initially affected countries have successfully contained the disease in poultry, the virus is now considered entrenched in many parts of Viet Nam and Indonesia and in some parts of Cambodia, China, Thailand, and possibly also Laos. To date, human cases have been confirmed in four countries: Viet Nam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. During early August 2005, highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza was confirmed in poultry in parts of Siberia, Russia and in adjacent parts of Kazakhstan. Both countries have reported deaths of migratory birds in the vicinity of poultry outbreaks. These events mark the first detection of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in the two countries. Last week, avian influenza of the H5 subtype was confirmed in dead migratory birds in Mongolia. No human cases have been reported in conjunction with any of these newer outbreaks. Assessment of the pandemic threatWHO considers the present risk of a pandemic great, but unpredictable in terms of its timing and severity. All conditions for the start of a pandemic have been met save one: changes in the virus that would make it contagious among humans, thus allowing easy and sustainable human-to-human transmission. The likelihood that this will happen is a matter of opportunity and probability. The expanding geographical range of the virus increases opportunities for human cases to occur and these, in turn, increase opportunities for the virus to improve its transmissibility. The fact that the virus is now endemic in poultry populations in several countries increases the probability that this will occur. In response to the pandemic threat, WHO has recommended a series of strategic actions to be undertaken by affected and at-risk countries, by WHO, and by the international community. These actions are phase-wise according to escalating levels of risk, and pertain to the present pre-pandemic situation, the first emergence of a contagious virus, and the declaration of a pandemic and subsequent international spread. In the present situation, recommended strategic actions aim to reduce opportunities for human infection ( by controlling the outbreaks in poultry and avoiding contact between humans and infected birds ), and to strengthen the early warning system. Experts anticipate that a virus with improved transmissibility will announce itself in the form of clusters of human cases, closely related in time and space. Surveillance and reporting systems in all countries experiencing outbreaks in birds need to be strong enough to detect such clusters of human cases. Internal stockpile of antiviral drugsIf the first signs of improved transmissibility are picked up quickly, there is a chance that rapid intervention, involving mass prophylactic administration of antiviral drugs, might contain the pandemic at its source or at least delay international spread, gaining time to intensify preparedness. An international stockpile of antiviral drugs is needed for this purpose. The prospect of halting a pandemic at its source or delaying its international spread is attractive, but untested, as no attempt has ever been made to alter the natural course of a pandemic. Successful intervention requires that at least 5 conditions be met: -- The first viruses that show an ability to sustain transmission among humans will not yet be highly contagious. -- The emergence of such viruses will be limited to a small geographical area. -- The first clusters of human cases caused by the virus will be rapidly detected and reported. -- Antiviral drugs will be rapidly mobilized from the stockpile, made available to the affected population, and administered to sufficiently large numbers of people. -- Movement of people in and out of the area will be effectively restricted. Given the unpredictable nature of influenza viruses, it is impossible to know in advance if the first two conditions will be borne out in reality when a pandemic virus emerges. The remaining conditions require excellent surveillance and logistics capacity in the initially affected area, combined with an ability to enforce movement restrictions. While mass intervention with antiviral drugs has no guarantee of success, it nonetheless needs to be undertaken as it represents one of the few preventive options for an event with predictably severe consequences for every country in the world. As drugs in the stockpile can also be used for treatment purposes, having such a stockpile provides the best guarantee that populations affected at the start of a pandemic and thus in greatest need will have drugs available for treatment. Once the virus has become fully contagious, its spread to all parts of the world is considered unstoppable. However, some non-medical interventions, such as quarantine, movement restrictions, and the banning of public gatherings, could potentially delay introduction of the virus to new areas. Vaccines, if available early enough and in sufficient quantities, can reduce the high morbidity and mortality typically experienced during influenza pandemics. http://www.who.int
ref="http://poultryreports.blogspot.com/">Newspaper and other reports concerning poultry (feed)
See also links to this feed and more from this feed
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A bum rap for wild birds?
New Scientist has a story about the Brussels conference: Bird flu knocks on Europe's door. As always, NS offers a clear and readable account, this time with a different angle: avian flu may be moving west not in migrating wild birds, but in domestic poultry whose owners are just taking care of business.
Evidence for spread by wild birds is circumstantial. Yevgeny Nepoklonov, head of the veterinary department of the Russian Agriculture Ministry, told the World Animal Health Organisation (OIE) in Paris this month that in the six territories where outbreaks have been reported, "the first [domestic] birds to be affected are those kept in homes close to reservoirs"— where wild birds may visit.
On the other hand, not one healthy wild bird carrying highly pathogenic H5N1 has yet been reported, apart from a few carrying a somewhat different virus in Hong Kong in 2002. Hon Ip, a virologist at the US National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin, US, notes that in Russia's report on Novosibirsk to the OIE, the H5N1 virus it had isolated from a wild duck was different from the viruses isolated in its domestic poultry.
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CIDRAP update
CIDRAP, always an important resource, has a newly updated post on Avian Influenza (Bird Flu): Implications for Human Disease. Very much worth reading and bookmarking.
Posted by dymaxion at 01:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Toronto gets ready for flu pandemic
The Star, Canada's highest-circulation newspaper, reports that the Toronto region is getting ready for the pandemic. (Free registration required to read the story.)
"There's a lot of things going on and have been going on for a long time," said Dr. Michael Gardam, head of infection control for the University Health Network and a key player in pandemic preparedness plans.
"I can say honestly, pandemic flu has taken up probably half my time in the last year."
Among the issues being considered are: the ability to staff hospitals, the need for triage centres to access ill people, alternative care facilities to deal with large numbers of sick people, the development of a volunteer management plan, morgue capacity and absenteeism.
"People have to realize everything we do in life will be affected by this," Gardam said yesterday.
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UK Tories complain about bird flu drug delay
According to a story in London's Financial Times, Tamiflu has become a political football in Britain.
The Conservatives accused the government of ordering the vital drug too late, leaving the country vulnerable. Andrew Lansley, shadow health secretary, said: "Because the government ordered its stocks of Tamiflu later than some other countries, the UK will not have full stocks available until the latter part of 2006. This leaves us with a degree of vulnerability to the risk of an early pandemic."
This would be tolerable, I guess, if Mr. Lansley hadn't implied that prompt purchase of mountains of Tamiflu would have seen Britain sail through the pandemic without so much as a sniffle.
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Flu treated like BSE?
The Independent quotes two experts who warn that the British government is sitting on its hands. Here's what one of them said:
Last night Professor Hugh Pennington, president of the Society for General Microbiology, who has warned that up to two million Britons could be killed by the disease, said that Defra[Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs] was repeating the disastrous policies of its predecessor, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, over BSE because "it did not want to tread on anybody's toes from the point of view of agribusiness".
Very interesting to see how rapidly flu is becoming a UK political issue as H5N1 approaches. Meanwhile it's still off the North American political radar. The first sick bird in Alaska or British Columbia will likely change that.
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US to triple airport quarantine stations
According to a story in the Washington Post, the US plans to triple airport quarantine stations in hopes of keeping infectious diseases out of the country.
The plan is a response to rising fears about bioterrorism or a potential pandemic of respiratory illness. For example, experts fear that a highly lethal form of influenza now circulating among birds in Asia, if it undergoes certain genetic changes, could start spreading rapidly among humans, potentially killing millions. In an age of global air travel, such an illness could jump from foreign countries to the United States in hours.
This makes sense, but imagine a scenario in which thousands are trying to get out of east Asia into North America to escape a pandemic, only to find flights have been cancelled. An alternative tactic would be to fly to whatever country still accepts flights from Asia, and then to make their way to North America by whatever means possible. It could mean a bonanza for snakeheads, the human smugglers who now bring illegal immigrants into Canada and the US from Asia.
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Nine dead in Nepal
An unknown disease has broken out in Nepal, according to Xinhuanet and some local sources. None of the stories is very detailed, and all repeat the same facts: Nine people have died in eastern Nepal in recent weeks, the last two on Saturday night within hours of displaying symptoms: high fever, headache, bleeding from the nose, and vomiting blood.
Many victims of Spanish flu displayed such symptoms, so this outbreak deserves watching.
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Britain's elite get pills to survive bird flu - The Sunday Times
| Britain's elite get pills to survive bird flu The Sunday Times, UK - ... Fears that a “doomsday” virus may sweep the world have been heightened by the recent spread of the lethal strain of avian flu, H5N1. ... After decades of war and isolation, Vietnam could become the ... |
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Bird flu precautions being taken - Wodonga Border Mail
| Bird flu precautions being taken Wodonga Border Mail, Australia - ... The plan involves developing an early warning system that provides rapid detection, diagnosis and treatment of the H5N1 flu strain that experts fear could ... Australia makes preparations for bird flu outbreak |
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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Bulgaria? - Recombinomics
| H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Bulgaria? Recombinomics, PA - The above machine translation of a boxun report suggest that H5N1 wild bird flu has been detected in Bulgaria. Although Bulgaria ... |
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Diseased seagulls in Finland not affected with H5N1 virus: EC ... - Xinhua
 CRI | Diseased seagulls in Finland not affected with H5N1 virus: EC ... Xinhua, China - 29 (Xinhuanet) -- European Commission (EC) spokesman Philip Tod said on Monday that the suspected cases of seagulls affected with H5N1 virus in Finland were ... A Fatal Flight To Europe? EU Says Finnish Seagull Didn't Have Deadly Strain of Bird Flu Dr. Bill Elliott: Bird flu has potential to be pandemic |
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Major Migratory Bird FlywaysQuiplashr's Photos
Quiplashr posted a photo:
Note the overlap (in Alaska) between the Pacific and East Asia/Australasia flyways. This is how scientists believe avian-flu-infected migrating birds will transfer the H5N1 influenza virus to North American birds.
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More pictures, articles and links at the Avian Flu Watch ... Educate yourself. There's still time.
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Vogelgrippe und die finnische RegierungSide Effects
Das in Finnland aufgetauchte Virus in einer Möwe sei für Menschen nicht gefährlich, argumentiert der finnische Chefveterinär Matti Aho heute, Samstag, auf den Internetseiten des Landwirtschaftsministeriums, es stehe eindeutig fest, dass der auch für Menschen gefährliche Virenstamm der Krankheit noch nicht in Europa angekommen sei.Dem Ministerium zufolge besteht derzeit der Verdacht, dass im Norden des Landes Möwen an der Vogelgrippe (H5N1) erkrankt sind.
Seit die Krankheit zuletzt auch bei Vögeln in Russland und Kasachstan aufgetreten ist, wird eine Ausbreitung nach Europa befürchtet. Experten der Weltgesundheitsorganisation warnen davor, dass das Virus mutieren könnte und die Krankheit dann von Mensch zu Mensch übertragbar wird.
Landwirtschaftsministerium Finnland
Der Standard
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Finland?Effect Measure
Yesterday Finland's Agriculture Ministry was looking into possible bird flu in seagulls in a country with an 800 mile border with Russia on one side and borders with Sweden, Norway and the Baltic on the other.
"As a result of a monitoring programme in Finland, we have now made an initial finding of a possible bird flu virus in a seagull," the ministry said in a statement. "The studies are ongoing and a final result will come in three weeks." (Reuters via Eircomnet)At the moment, the Finns are assuming it is not Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 but a Low Pathogenic variety (LPAI), not uncommon in wild birds. Based on prior probabilities, the assumption that it is LPAI is reasonable, while based on the downside risk that it is H5N1, making an announcement and taking immediate steps is also reasonable.
Despite the Thursday pronouncement in Brussels by EU veterinarians that the presence of H5N1 in Central Asia was "not a direct threat for Europe and there is no need for general emergency actions", most knowledgeable observers believe the virus is almost certain to make its way to Europe. Sooner or later.
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