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August 26, 2005

Just another irrelevant leftist plan: flu vaccines (2005-08-26)Bondage.com Forums -- Other Topics Category

http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article308240.ece[quote]It is inevitable that migrating birds will spread avian flu across Europe, one of Britain's leading veterinary scientists said yesterday.
"Wild birds that have migratory pathways over Europe and the UK will become infected. It is inevitable bird flu will be carried to this country by migrating birds," Dr McCracken, the president of the British Veterinary Association, said.
Debbie Reynolds, the Government's chief vet, said ... "There is a constant, low-level risk of a low-pathogenic strain being introduced, but there is no evidence that the highly pathogenic virus is spread by migrating birds."
Although mass deaths of migrating birds have been reported in China and in Russia east of the Ural mountains, it is possible they have been cross-infected by domestic poultry, she said. Birds infected with the H5N1 strain were probably too ill to travel very far, she explained.[/quote]Yesterday's article on the subject: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/environment/article307987.ece[quote] Senior scientists have advised the Government against a mass cull of wild birds because it would prove ineffective in stemming the spread of the virus to poultry. Instead they have emphasised the importance of knowing whether the H5N1 virus is present in the wild.
So far there have only been a few instances of transmission between people but the greatest fear is that a more transmissible virus will evolve that could cause a pandemic of a highly lethal strain of human influenza.[/quote]Serious science publication's page of relevant stuff: http://www.nature.com/nature/focus/avianflu/index.html
There are items in there about it appearing in pigs. The [i]Indy[/i] says there are fears it may mix with other strains in pigs and produce a super-strain that way. Are you scared yet?

Here's an article with a repost of a fake weblog on the subject:
http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050523/full/435399a.html[quote]Repeated warnings about the international community's failure to respond to the pandemic threat have fallen on deaf ears. So in our opening News Feature, we use the benefit of fictional hindsight to throw the issues into starker relief, describing a future pandemic through the weblog of a journalist in the thick of things. This is fiction, but not fantasy — the storyline was drawn up in consultation with those who could soon be dealing with the situation for real.[/quote]

That weblog: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v435/n7041/full/435400a.html[quote]Ready, my ass! I've reported on avian flu for almost a decade. The first thing I did on hearing Bush's address ...[/quote]There ya go, a shot at Bush. Several of you can now safely stop reading and forget all about this.
[quote]The team has a web video conference via a high-bandwidth satellite connection with WHO headquarters in Geneva. Its Department of Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response is coordinating the international response. Poor guys, there's just a handful of them.

Computer models predict that if we do this, we might just stop the pandemic in its tracks. But there hasn't been enough modelling, and now we're doing the experiment for real.

Continued modelling will be vital, though, to work out how to deploy the limited supplies of Tamiflu we've got, and how long we need to treat people for the drug to work. Geneva informs us that the WHO international stockpile contains just 120,000 pills. WHO officials have been on the phone today with countries that have national stockpiles.

The politicians know that stopping the pandemic at source would be the best solution. But they're reluctant to donate drugs, as they'll have less for their own citizens if this approach fails. No point asking the United States — they've only got enough pills for 1% of the population. Britain and France have enough for a quarter of their populations. Will they spare us any? Will they hell.

Geneva announces that the latest epidemiological studies say that the virus seems to have a 'basic reproductive number', or R0, of between 1.4 and 2.0. This means that one case on average infects only one or two people. So if we can detect cases quickly and treat them and their contacts, the models suggest we could contain the virus most of the time. At the least, that might slow the pandemic and corral it in that region for a few months. That would win time to get a vaccine.

But we know there is a very short window. As time goes by, this virus will get better and better at transmitting between humans, and the R0 will increase. If it goes above 3, there's no way we'll contain it.[/quote]The [i]Indy[/i] yesterday had something along the lines of "by the time we get an outbreak in Britain, it's too late to stop it."

Just to throw in everybody's favourite numbers: 10,000 times as many fatalities as 9/11.

[size=1]Everyone loves the death counts.[/size=1]

Posted by dymaxion at August 26, 2005 01:54 PM

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