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August 11, 2005

wednesday late linksasiapundit

Another Avian Flu Blog, H5N1, offers a look at computer modeling of how an epidemic may spread.

Both studies look at Thailand as the example source of an epidemic, in part because the Thai government has been more forthcoming with useful information than China and Vietnam (other locations of known human H5N1 infections), and in part because Thailand remains a hotbed of the virus. The Nature team took a case of a single rural resident of Thailand coming down with a human-transmissible form of H5N1, then calculated the patterns of infection across the nation. The results -- visible in this movie (small .mov, larger .ram), with red representing flu cases and green representing locations where the disease has "burned through" the population -- are sobering.

H5N1 also links to clips on how the plague could be controlled. Improvements in computer modeling are fantastic. And even if we don't face Armageddon, a pandemic option would be a great feature for any new Sid Meier game.

Via PubSub: "h5n1"

Posted by dymaxion at August 11, 2005 01:43 PM

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