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April 28, 2006
Unstoppable
The Globe and Mail reports on a new computer model of an H5N1 pandemic: No stopping bird flu, studies conclude.
The story describes a study led by Dr. Neil Ferguson that estimates one-third of Americans would be infected by avian flu—but if enough antivirals were available, the infection rate could drop to 28 percent.
The US population is expected to reach 300,000,000 in October 2006. So the Ferguson model predicts 100 million infected if nothing is done, and 84 million if enough antivirals miraculously appear from nowhere. Sixteen million spared the infection would be a goal worth achieving, but from what we're told it's not likely.
So here's a little speculation, based on a crude analogy with 1918-19: A three-wave pandemic, spring-fall-spring. Twenty-five million Americans sick in the first wave, fifty million in the second, and twenty-five million more in the last waves. Assume a comparable 33 percent infection rate around the world: two billion cases, in the same proportions as in the US.
In the fall wave, one in six Americans is sick. A billion other people are sick at the same time. The global infrastructure is held together by a coalition of saints, heroes, and lunatics, many of whom fall ill and die on the job.
Assume that the case fatality rate around the world is 2.5 percent, about the toll the US suffered in 1918-19 (other countries seem to have suffered much higher rates). So the US loses 625,000 people in the first spring wave, tries to recover over the summer, and then loses 1,250,000 between Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In the final wave, another 625,000 Americans die. Meanwhile 50 million more die worldwide in the three waves. Collateral damage is on top of that: deaths due to untreated medical conditions and injuries, malnutrition, and so on.
Please don't take these numbers as firm predictions. This is a very crude extrapolation, the kind of thing we SF writers like to fool around with (and we couldn't even predict the personal computer, so what do we know?). And as awful as it sounds, it's no worse, proportionally, than the Spanish flu. Two-thirds of us won't catch even a mild form of H5N1.
To infect just a third of us, H5N1 may have to give up so much virulence that only a fraction of 1 percent actually die. Or it may keep its 55 percent mortality and kill so many people, so fast, that it smothers itself by running out of victims. The worst-case scenario, of course, is that it stays lethal while spreading easily and swiftly around the world.
But we still have no idea which scenario, if any, will come true.
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Pakistan: Nine farms now have B2B
Via Reuters: Bird flu cases multiply around Pakistani capital.
Pakistan reported mounting cases of the deadly H5NI bird flu virus in poultry on Monday after discovering more infected farms near the capital.
"Now, we have total nine poultry farms where H5N1 virus has been confirmed," Mohammad Afzal, the agriculture ministry's livestock commissioner, told Reuters.
He said more than 40,000 chickens had been culled after new outbreaks were discovered in the past week at eight farms located in Tarlai and Sihala, two areas near the capital Islamabad where poultry farms are concentrated.
"Checking each vehicle carrying birds or eggs (from the affected areas) is not possible, but we test samples from each farm," said Rana Ikhlaq, an assistant commissioner.
Pakistan's first reported cases were found in February at two farms in North West Frontier Province, but a third was discovered close to the capital earlier this month.
None of the workers at the farms have contracted the disease.
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Vietnam says it will need more than $400 million for bird flu, pandemic preparednessThe Associated Press
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) Vietnam needs more than $400 million to fight bird flu and prepare for a potential pandemic over the next five years, and expects about half to come from international donors, an official said Friday.
Vietnam would use the money for improvements in human and animal health care, Agriculture Minister Cao Duc Phat said. The country has been examining how to better monitor human cases, strengthen border controls to block smuggling of potentially infected birds and improve laboratory facilities inside Vietnam, among other measures.
``We realize this is a very dangerous disease, but if we can do it in a concerted way with our best effort, then we can surely prevent it (from spreading),'' Cao said.
More than 30 experts from 12 organizations, including the World Health Organization, the European Commission and the World Bank, have spent the past two weeks taking stock of Vietnam's progress and helping the country finalize its five-year plan to battle the H5N1 bird flu virus.
Vietnam will present its draft plan next week at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation bird flu meeting in Danang. The meeting will be attended by health and agricultural ministers of the 21-nation group and other agencies, such as the WHO.
The Vietnamese government and private sector would contribute about $225 million to help restructure Vietnam's poultry industry, which has been hit hard by the spread of the virus. Vietnam has been seeking to reduce the number of backyard farms and improve sanitary measures in slaughterhouses, among other measures.
Vietnam has not reported any flu outbreaks in poultry since December and no human bird flu cases since November. Experts have attributed that success to a mass poultry vaccination campaign that began last year, combined with increased surveillance and awareness.
But Hans Troedsson, WHO representative in Vietnam, said Vietnam must remain on alert.
``If there would be complacency now, Vietnam would be facing imminent risk,'' he said. ``What's important is that we are not having a false security thinking that the threat is over from avian influenza in Vietnam.''
Bird flu has killed at least 113 people since it began ravaging Asian poultry stocks in 2003. The virus remains hard for people to catch, but health experts fear it could eventually mutate into a form that spreads easily from person to person, potentially sparking a pandemic.
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Govt Minister, OIE Report First Case of Bird FluAllAfrica News: Côte d'Ivoire
Cote d'Ivoire has reported its first outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in a poor residential district of the main city Abidjan, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said on Thursday.Posted by dymaxion at 02:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Iraq confirms second death in bird flu outbreak (Flu vaccine)aboutflu.net
Iraq confirms second death in bird flu outbreak
Kurdish Media - Sulaimanyya, Iraq: A second Iraqi Kurd was confirmed Monday to have died from the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain as international teams arrived to combat the spread of the virus in the country’s north. Hamma Sur Abdullah, 40, who died of flu-like
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Reuters AlertNet - China reports 18th human bird flu caseConnotea: Bookmarks matching tag AvianFlu
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Bird Flu Another Death in Indonesia
... Indonesia reported its 25th death from the H5N1 strain of bird flu on Friday and China said an 8-year-old girl had contracted the disease ...Bird Flu Protection Tips and News Blog
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April 24, 2006
Malawi hosts preparedness conference
Via IOL, a South African news source: African countries probe bird flu preparedness.
Lilongwe, Malawi - Agriculture scientists from 19 African countries gathered Monday to discuss how vulnerable countries should prepare themselves for a possible deadly bird flu outbreak.
Mazlan Jusoh, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation country representative for Malawi, said although most countries in Africa were still free of bird flu there was an urgent need to increase surveillance and early detection.
"In Malawi, as is the case in many African countries, inadequate medical, veterinary and laboratory services, limited animal and human health education and the high levels of poverty make more people vulnerable," he said.
He urged African nations to step up public awareness campaigns and put in place rapid response measure to reduce the impact of an outbreak.
The five-day conference has attracted veterinary, wildlife and agriculture scientists from English-speaking countries including Nigeria, which is one of five African countries to have confirmed the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.
The other four affected countries in Africa are Niger, Cameroon, Egypt and Burkina Faso.
Posted by dymaxion at 03:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Deadly bird flu found at 5 Pakistani poultry farmsCTV News RSS Feed
The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has been confirmed at five more poultry farms near the Pakistani capital and some 25,000 chickens were culled there, an agriculture ministry official said Friday.Posted by dymaxion at 03:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Media campaign to quell panic over bird flu ready to airThe Associated Press
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) State health officials are ready to air a media campaign upon the first reports of avian flu in New York to extinguish any flare-up of public panic.
The ads stress that the appearance of a bird infected with the H5N1 virus does not mean an outbreak in humans is looming, officials at the state Health Department said.
``The important, No. 1 message is that just because infection appears in the animal population, it doesn't mean there's a higher chance it will move into the human population,'' said Dennis Whalen, the state's deputy health commissioner.
The campaign, which includes print, radio and TV spots, will run in the late summer or early fall as a precursor to the regular flu season regardless of whether avian flu surfaces in the state. The ads will run sooner if reports of avian flu surface before then.
``Education leads to informed individuals, and that will reduce the panic,'' Whalen said.
Despite the ads, fear is nevertheless certain to spread if the virus is found in the United States an occurrence federal health officials predict could happen within the next couple of weeks.
Half those surveyed in an AP-Ipsos survey last week said they thought the bird flu would kill them if they contracted it. About half also said they weren't confident the government would properly handle an outbreak among humans.
Health experts fear the H5N1 virus will eventually mutate into a form that spreads easily among people, potentially sparking a global pandemic. So far, most cases have been traced to close contact with infected birds. The virus remains hard for humans to catch and spread among each other.
At least 109 people worldwide have died from bird flu since outbreaks of H5N1 swept through Asian poultry populations in late 2003, according to the World Health Organization.
``It's important to stress that the transmission to humans may not even ever happen. There are many parts of the world where avian flu has been around for years, but humans were never infected,'' said Rob Kenny, spokesman for the Health Department.
The ads by the state Health Department will highlight basic measures that can prevent the spread of flu, including hand washing and not going to work when infected.
``People have a tendency to focus on anti-viral vaccines. But the most effective methods to prevent the spread of disease are well known,'' Whalen said.
Funding has not been set aside for the media campaign; most media outlets will run the ads as a public service as they did when fears of West Nile virus were rampant. The Health Department also will work with private institutions like utilities and chain groceries to distribute educational materials on avian and pandemic flu. The department also is hosting a media seminar Friday to educate journalists.
Birds infected with H5N1 will be reported to either the Department of Environmental Conservation or the Department of Agriculture and Markets, depending on whether the infected bird is a wild or domestic.
^ =
^On the Net:
New York State Department of Health, www.health.state.ny.us
New York State Department of Agriculture & Markets, www.agmkt.state.ny.us/
New York State Department of Environment Conservation, www.dec.state.ny.us/
Posted by dymaxion at 03:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Germany extends lock-up rule for fowl to fight bird flu (Avian flu)
... Germany extends lock-up rule for fowl to fight bird flu Germany has indefinitely extended a lock-up order for domestic fowl in a bid to contain the spread of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu. Easing of avian influenza restrictions With no further cases of High Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 having been found, the Wild Bird Protection Zone ...Home (aboutflu.net)
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Bird Flu Snatched the 12th Human Life in China
... Bird Flu Snatched the 12th Human Life in China April 24th, 2006 A peasant worker (surnamed Lai, a 21-year-old) has become the 12th Chinese person to die of the bird flu virus. The official Xinhua news agency says he died in the central city of Wuhan on wednesday. It’s still unknown how he contracted the H5N1 bird flu virus. Read the rest of ...Entirely Pets
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Human Bird Flu Cases Top 200 After Egypt Confirms 12 Infections
... April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bird flu cases worldwide topped 200 after a dozen people were confirmed to have been infected with the virus in Egypt, the World Health Organization said. ``Of the 12 cases in Egypt, four patients have died and one remains hospitalized in stable condition,'' the Geneva-based United Nations agency said in an April 21 ...quickstep
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Strategies for distributing limited supplies of avian flu vaccine
... One of the most difficult public health and ethical questions a potential flu pandemic raises is how best to allocate limited supplies of vaccine (which will only be of limited effectiveness at first, as we've written previously). There's general consensus that first responders or other 'essential personnel' (the definition of which varies widely) ...Ethics of Vaccines
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April 19, 2006
Tick. Tick. Tick.Hugh Hewitt
From the WSJ.com's Avian Flu News Tracker:
9:55 a.m.: Five members of an Indonesian family were admitted to a hospital with symptoms of bird flu, the Jakarta Post reported, raising concerns about potential human transmission of the disease. Three other children were already diagnosed with bird flu; two died. "This is serious bad news," Crawford Kilian wrote on his H5N1 blog. "If this really is H5N1, it's the worst single cluster since the Kocyigit family in eastern Turkey in the week after Christmas."
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PandemicFlu.gov
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New human bird flu case confirmed in HubeiShanghai Daily: China news blog
THE Ministry of Health today confirmed a new human case of bird flu in central China’s Hubei Province, bringing the total number of people infected to 17 in the country, including 11 deaths.
The man surnamed Lai was identified as a migrant worker in Wuhan City, capital of Hubei. He was still in a local hospital for treatment, but in a critical condition, the ministry said.
Lai, 21, began running a fever and experiencing pneumonia symptoms on April 1.
After a test conducted by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention yesterday, Lai’s sample was positive for the virulent H5N1 strain of the disease.
People who had come in close contact with Lai were put under medical observation by province health authorities. No abnormal symptoms had been found, according to the ministry’s statement.
The Health Ministry has reported the case to the World Health Organization.
In the country’s latest human case, a 29-year-old female migrant worker in Shanghai died from bird flu last month.
China has agreed to share virus samples from bird flu outbreaks in poultry with the WHO to help develop treatment drugs and vaccines.
Experts have been worrying that the bird flu virus could mutate into a form that could spread easily among people, causing a global pandemic.
A total of 35 outbreaks of bird flu have been reported in China since 2005, involving 194,000 fowl, with 186,000 killed by the flu. Nearly 23 million birds were culled to prevent the disease from spreading.
(zlh)
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Chron.com | World Bank Earmarks $500M for Bird Flu
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Influenza Report 2006
Posted by dymaxion at 10:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
If you are or headed to Asia, guidelines update from CDC regarding Avian flu
Outbreak Notice Guidelines and RecommendationsInterim Guidance about Avian Influenza A (H5N1) for U.S. Citizens Living Abroad This information is current as of today,April 18, 2006, 11:24:54 AM
This notice initially released: March 24, 2005
Background
Avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses usually affect wild birds but have infected and caused serious disease among poultry, such as chickens. Human infections with H5N1 viruses are rare, but have also occurred in several countries since 2003. For a current list of countries reporting outbreaks of H5N1 infection among poultry and other birds and a list of countries reporting laboratory-confirmed human infections with H5N1 viruses, see the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website, http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm
Situation updates and cumulative reports can also be found on the World Health Organization (WHO) website at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.
Most cases of H5N1 influenza in humans are thought to have occurred from direct contact with infected poultry in affected countries. Contact with sick or dead poultry as well as with poultry that have no apparent symptoms should be avoided. Contact with surfaces that may have been contaminated by poultry feces or secretions should also be avoided. Transmission of H5N1 viruses to two persons through consumption of uncooked duck blood may also have occurred in Vietnam in 2005. Therefore, uncooked poultry or poultry products, including blood, should not be consumed.
The public health threat of novel influenza subtypes such as influenza A (H5N1) will be greatly increased if the virus gains the ability for sustained spread from one human to another. Such transmission has not yet been observed. However, a few cases of probable person-to-person spread of H5N1 viruses have been reported, with no instances of transmission continuing beyond one person. For example, one case of probable person-to-person transmission associated with close contact between an ill child and her mother is thought to have occurred in Thailand in September 2004.
H5N1 infections in humans can cause serious disease and death. A vaccine to protect humans against influenza A (H5N1) is not yet available, but a candidate vaccine is undergoing human clinical trials in the United States. The H5N1 viruses currently infecting birds and some humans are resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, two antiviral medications commonly used to treat influenza. Most of the H5N1 viruses tested have been susceptible to the antiviral medications oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) and zanamivir (Relenza®), but resistance has been reported. The effectiveness of these drugs when used for treatment of H5N1 virus infection is unknown. For more information about influenza antiviral drugs, see http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/avian-flu-humans.htm#antiviral.
The U.S. Department of State has decided to provide oseltamivir at its embassies and consulates for eligible U.S. government employees and their families serving abroad who become ill with avian influenza. For more information about this policy, see http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1181.html. Other Americans living in affected areas or planning long-term travel to these areas may wish to discuss antiviral medication with their health-care providers.
CDC Recommendations
Surveillance and travel: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continues to recommend surveillance, diagnostic evaluation, and infection control guidance for suspected H5N1 cases in travelers to the United States, as detailed in a health advisory update (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/professional/han020405.htm). CDC remains in communication with WHO and continues to closely monitor the H5N1 situation. Situational updates can be found on CDC's avian influenza (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/index.htm) and Travelers' Health websites (http://www.cdc.gov/travel). Information also is available on the WHO website (http://www.who.int/en/).
To reduce the risk of infection, Americans living in areas where outbreaks of H5N1 among poultry or human H5N1 cases have been reported should observe the following measures to help avoid illness:
Precautions: The following recommendations are directed to U.S. embassies and consulates, their personnel, and U.S. citizens living abroad in areas where avian influenza A (H5N1) outbreaks among poultry or wild birds have occurred or where human H5N1 cases have been reported. These recommendations may be revised as more information becomes available. Embassies and consulates should recommend the following precautions to U.S. expatriates living in an area with avian influenza:
Travelers should avoid all contact with poultry (e.g., chickens, ducks, geese, pigeons, turkeys, and quail) or any wild birds, and avoid settings where H5N1-infected poultry may be present, such as commercial or backyard poultry farms and live poultry markets. Do not eat uncooked or undercooked poultry or poultry products, including dishes made with uncooked poultry blood.
As with other infectious illnesses, one of the most important preventive practices is careful and frequent handwashing. Clean your hands often, using either soap and water (or waterless, alcohol-based hand gels when soap is not available and hands are not visibly soiled) to remove potentially infectious materials from your skin and help prevent disease transmission.
CDC does not recommend the routine use of masks or other personal protective equipment while in public areas.
See Seeking Health Care Abroad in Health Information for International Travel for more information about what to do if you become ill while abroad.
When Preparing Food
Separate raw meat from cooked or ready-to-eat foods. Do not use the same chopping board or the same knife for preparing raw meat and cooked or ready-to-eat foods.
Do not handle either raw or cooked foods without washing your hands in between.
Do not place cooked meat back on the same plate or surface it was on before it was cooked.
All foods from poultry, including eggs and poultry blood should be cooked thoroughly. Egg yolks should not be runny or liquid. Because influenza viruses are destroyed by heat, the cooking temperature for poultry meat should be 74°C (165°F)
Wash egg shells in soapy water before handling and cooking, and wash your hands afterwards.
Do not use raw or soft-boiled eggs in foods that will not be cooked.
After handling raw poultry or eggs, wash your hands and all surfaces and utensils thoroughly with soap and water.
If you believe you might have been exposed to avian influenza, take the following precautions:
Monitor your health for 10 days.
If you become ill with fever and develop a cough, sore throat, or difficulty breathing or if you develop any illness with fever during this 10-day period, consult a health-care provider. Before you visit a health-care setting, tell the provider the following: 1) your symptoms, 2) where you traveled, and 3) if you have had direct poultry contact with poultry. The U.S. embassy or consulate also can provide names and addresses of local physicians.
Do not travel while ill, unless traveling locally for medical care. Limiting contact with others as much as possible can help prevent the spread of an infectious illness.
For more information about avian influenza, see http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/index.htm.
Date: April 4, 2006
Content Source: National Center for Infectious Diseases, Division of Global Migration and Quarantine
http://www.cdc.gov/travel/other/avian_flu_ig_americans_abroad_032405.htm
Posted by dymaxion at 10:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
H5N1 detected in central Parwan - Pajhwok Afghan News
| H5N1 detected in central Parwan Pajhwok Afghan News, Afghanistan - ... News): Delegation of agriculture, food and livestock ministry in its visit to central Parwan has confirmed the presence of the deadly strain of H5N1 virus in ... |
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US: Flocks will be slaughtered on suspicion
Via Forbes.com: Flock-Killing Planned if Bird Flu Found.
ve question about those LA flocks is this: Where is "inside" going to be? A well-shielded coop, or just a fenced-off patio? Second naive question: Whoever thought Los Angeles would have 60,000 flocks of chickens?Most of America's chickens come from big commercial farms that are well-protected against the spread of disease. Yet there are many small backyard and free-range flocks - as many as 60,000 in Los Angeles alone - where birds are outdoors and are harder to protect.
Officials encourage those producers to bring flocks inside and watch for signs of flu - dead birds, lack of appetite, purple wattles and legs, coughing and sneezing, diarrhea - and report them to state or federal authorities.
"We can't afford for this virus to be smoldering six months before we find it," DeHaven said in an interview with The Associated Press.
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Biologists in Alaska waiting for bird flu
... Biologists in Alaska waiting for bird flu Biologists in Alaska waiting for bird flu Lexington Herald-Leader - WASHINGTON - In about three weeks, waterfowl, shorebirds and songbirds will start arriving in the Alaska Peninsula, the Yukon Delta and the westernmost Aleutian Islands to begin mating. That’s when and where government scientists expect ...Information and news about the flu (including Avian Flu H5N1) | Flu Information Updates
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WHO assesses Sudan’s avian flu, confirms 2 cases elsewhere (CIDRAP)
... Apr 19, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – A World Health Organization (WHO) team is reported to be in Sudan today to help the impoverished country respond to H5N1 avian influenza, which was confirmed there for the first time yesterday. ...Bird Cause Flu
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Avian influenza – situation in China
... The Ministry of Health in China has confirmed the country’s 17th case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case occurred in a 21-year-old male migrant worker employed in Wuhan City, Hubei Province. He developed symptoms on 1 April. He is presently hospitalized in critical condition. The man’s source of exposure is under ...Enflu
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April 17, 2006
The Washington Post on US pandemic plan
President Bush is expected to approve soon a national pandemic influenza response plan that identifies more than 300 specific tasks for federal agencies, including determining which frontline workers should be the first vaccinated and expanding Internet capacity to handle what would probably be a flood of people working from their home computers.
The Treasury Department is poised to sign agreements with other nations to produce currency if U.S. mints cannot operate. The Pentagon, anticipating difficulties acquiring supplies from the Far East, is considering stockpiling millions of latex gloves. And the Department of Veterans Affairs has developed a drive-through medical exam to quickly assess patients who suspect they have been infected.
The document is the first attempt to spell out in some detail how the government would detect and respond to an outbreak, and continue functioning through what could be an 18-month crisis, which in a worst-case scenario could kill 1.9 million Americans. Bush was briefed on a draft of the implementation plan on March 17. He is expected to approve the plan within the week, but it continues to evolve, said several administration officials who have been working on it.
[...] To keep the 1.8 million federal workers healthy and productive through a pandemic, the Bush administration would tap into its secure stash of medications, cancel large gatherings, encourage schools to close and shift air traffic controllers to the busier hubs -- probably where flu had not yet struck. Retired federal employees would be summoned back to work, and National Guard troops could be dispatched to cities facing possible "insurrection," said Jeffrey W. Runge, chief medical officer at the Department of Homeland Security.
The administration hopes to help contain the first cases overseas by rushing in medical teams and supplies. "If there is a small outbreak in a country, it may behoove us to introduce travel restrictions," Runge said, "to help stamp out that spark."
Read the full article here.
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Bird flu spreads to the enterprise
MIT simulation shows the deadly H5N1 bird flu might cripple the supply chain, and the global economyPosted by dymaxion at 10:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Pakistan reports second outbreak of H5N1 - Montreal Gazette (subscription)
| Pakistan reports second outbreak of H5N1 Montreal Gazette (subscription), Canada - Pakistan's second outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain was confirmed yesterday at a poultry farm near the capital, the agriculture ministry said. ... |
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US poultry industry already in trouble
Via delawareonline.com: Industry fears even one bird flu case. It's mostly about the efforts of one Delaware poultry farmer to protect his chickens, but I've bolded the real news, near the end of the story:
Economists said consumer reaction will vary depending on severity of the avian flu and where it is found: an isolated forest far away from commercial flocks or inside the heart of a poultry-growing region like Delmarva.
In a worst-case scenario, discovery of the highly dangerous H5N1 form of the virus would almost certainly result in an immediate ban on exports by various nations, dragging down already lagging consumption abroad.
The industry is expected to lose more than $1 billion in sales this year compared with last year because of declining exports and poultry prices associated with avian flu, said Paul Aho, a poultry economist and consultant based in Storrs, Conn. That doesn't even take into consideration what would happen to the industry if bird flu is found in the United States.
"The situation is bad now, the only thing worse than we have now is if the hot bird flu got into the U.S.," said Aho. "If the bird flu should come to the United States, there may be some consumers that might eat less chicken even though there is no reason to eat less chicken."
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Wherein I don a tinfoil hatEffect Measure
I said then I at least gave her high marks for being a good, relatively spin-free communicator, even if she is a Katrina-sized management disaster at CDC. But then she went ahead and made a lier out of me in an appearance last week in Tacoma, Washington:
Federal health officials at a meeting Friday in Tacoma downplayed the risk bird flu poses to humans, contrasting earlier warnings from the federal government. “There is no evidence it will be the next pandemic,” Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said of avian flu. There is “no evidence it is evolving in a direction that is becoming more transmissible to people.”There's no reason to think it ever will become easily transmissible? On the contrary, there are many reasons. Good, sound, plausible, scientific reasons. No conclusive reasons, perhaps. But comparing "gazillions of birds" to 100 human deaths has only one function here, to trivialize the issue. Responsible journalism? Irrational panic?
Gerberding spoke at the Greater Tacoma Convention & Trade Center at a pandemic flu conference that drew 1,200 people from across the state, mostly health department officials and others involved in emergency planning.
[snip]
Audience questions Friday about buying surgical masks and stockpiling food showed the concern Bush’s comments and others have raised.
But Gerberding noted that, though the disease has killed “gazillions of birds,” it has killed about 100 people out of about 200 sickened worldwide. The victims were in intense, daily contact with sick flocks, often sharing the same living space. Two people have become infected from person-to-person contact.
She did not say what had changed the thinking of health care officials about bird flu, but said that, at this point, there is “no reason to think it ever will” pass easily between people.
Given those facts, bird flu, like SARS, swine flu and other once widely publicized health threats, might never become a significant human illness.
[snip]
She and other federal officials said H5N1 bird flu likely will reach the United States, because bird flu and its many strains occur naturally in migratory birds.
When that happens, “it does not signal the start of a pandemic” or a threat to the food supply, said Richard Raymond, an undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Cooking meat to 160 degrees will destroy the virus, he said – in addition to destroying salmonella, “which sickens more people than H5N1 ever will even if there is a pandemic.”
Gerberding cautioned that when H5N1 is detected in the United States, “there will be temptation for the press to make this into something it is not. We will need responsible journalism” to prevent irrational panic. (Tacoma News Tribune)
This is now the second Administration spokesperson to start to ratchet back on bird flu. I reported the other day that Tony Fauci had granted an interview to AP in which he did the same thing, although not so flagrantly and irresponsibly as Gerberding. One reader pointed out to me there was no news hook in the Fauci interview. It seemed to come out of the blue. Meanwhile rumors are circulating that Gerberding is reorganizing again at CDC and the Flu Branch is going to be shifted around. It is now part of the National Center for Infectious Disease (NCID) but may move to the National Immunization Program. Last year the Flu branch lost some of its key personnel. Look for more with this reorganization. No one knows from day to day what their new job is going to be in the Alice in Wonderland of the New CDC. As one state epidemiologist said to me recently, "It's like a Repertory Company. Everybody you deal with now at CDC is Acting Something or Other."
This is a ridiculous time to be screwing around with CDC organization, especially considering the enormous upset and morale plunge Gerberding's previous management mishaps caused. By every account she doesn't listen, is arrogant toward the professional scientists, and is an Administration toady. Heck of a job, Julie.
Carrying water for the Bushies also made her extremely tardy in alerting the states to the bird flu problem, preferring instead to parrot Administration messages about bioterrorism (talk about unreal threats!). She never strayed from the "message," which was terrorism and the Iraq debacle. Given the new vibes coming out of Washington about plans to bomb Iran, it makes me wonder whether there is no room in that message for bird flu, once again . . .
Oh, oh. Please hand me my tinfoil hat.
Posted by dymaxion at 10:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 14, 2006
Egypt: Fourth woman dies of B2H
Via Reuters: Fourth Egyptian woman dies of bird flu.
Egypt said on Thursday a fourth woman had died after being infected with the bird flu virus, the state MENA news agency said.
The latest victim was an 18-year-old woman from a province north of Cairo, who was admitted to hospital on Monday. Egypt has so far reported 12 human bird flu cases.
"An 18-year-old woman from Ashmoun in Monoufiya has died of bird flu, bringing the number of deaths to four from the 12 people who have been infected," MENA quoted Health Minister Hatem el-Gabali as saying.
The woman had been admitted to hospital after handling domestically kept birds infected with bird flu, he added.
She had been on an artificial respirator since she was admitted, and had died despite receiving Tamiflu, an anti-viral medication thought to be the best method of fighting bird flu in humans.
Posted by dymaxion at 01:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
In the Nile Delta, Bird Flu Preys on Ignorance and Poverty
Posted by dymaxion at 01:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Fears of bird flu in Ivory Coast - Independent Online
| Fears of bird flu in Ivory Coast Independent Online, South Africa - ... the two sides. Nigeria reported Africa's first case of the lethal H5N1 strain of the bird-flu virus on February 26. It has since ... Bird flu in Ivory Coast? |
Posted by dymaxion at 01:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
News Roundup - Monsters and Critics.com
 Newstalk ZB | News Roundup Monsters and Critics.com, UK - ... The latest person to die in Egypt from the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza was Iman Mohamed Abdel-Gawwad, a 16-year-old from Menoufiya. ... Bird flu deaths increase |
Posted by dymaxion at 01:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Seven tested for bird flu
... Seven person from Khandwa district, in India, suspected to be suffering from bird flu were brought to the Manorama Raje Chest Centre today. Khandwa adjoins Burhanpur where bird flu was detected, but no outbreak was reported in Khandwa district. Primary tests were conducted on the suspected patients and their blood samples were sent to the ...Pandemic Flu from Europe
Posted by dymaxion at 01:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Japan to designate H5N1 bird flu as infectious disease+
... The designation will enable authorities to force infected persons to be hospitalized for treatment and impose restrictions on their work activities, the officials of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said. The plan was approved at the day’s meeting of the ministry’s Health Sciences Council and will be implemented this summer, the officials ...Pandemic Virus Facts and Information
Posted by dymaxion at 01:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Indonesia is bird flu 'time-bomb': animal health expert
... Indonesia has become a bird flu "time-bomb" because of its failure to eradicate high numbers of deadly H5N1 sites, the head of the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health told AFP on Friday. "Indonesia is a time-bomb for the region," said organisation head Bernard Vallat, calling the situation a cause for "great concern". "It is ...Pandemic Flu from Europe
Posted by dymaxion at 01:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 11, 2006
Egyptian Human and Bird HA H5N1 Sequences Are Similar - Recombinomics
Egyptian Human and Bird HA H5N1 Sequences Are Similar Recombinomics, PA - 9 hours ago The HA sequence of a human H5N1 isolate from Egypt, A/Egypt/2782-NAMRU3/2006(H5N1), has been released. The description of a 30 year ...Posted by dymaxion at 10:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Britain's bird flu testing method questioned - Reuters.uk
| Britain's bird flu testing method questioned Reuters.uk, UK - LONDON (Reuters) - Tests done in Britain to determine the extent of avian flu after the H5N1 virus was found in a dead swan may have been flawed, a science ... Bird flu tests in Britain 'flawed' UK's bird tests may be missing flu virus New Scientist Magazine Press Release - Issue 15 Apr 06 |
Posted by dymaxion at 10:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Indonesia's Bird Flu Cases Indicate Virus Control Isn't Working - Bloomberg
 Playfuls.com | Indonesia's Bird Flu Cases Indicate Virus Control Isn't Working Bloomberg - ... Indonesia, the world's fourth-most-populous nation, has had outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu strain in 26 of its 33 provinces, and so far 32 people have become ... UN envoy to brief Asian leaders on influenza pandemic threat UN official praises Thai efforts to control bird flu Burma battles 100-plus bird flu outbreaks |
Posted by dymaxion at 10:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Czech veterinary chiefs confirm H5N1 cases - Independent Online
 Playfuls.com | Czech veterinary chiefs confirm H5N1 cases Independent Online, South Africa - Prague - A second and third case of the H5N1 form of bird flu have been detected by the Czech Republic's national laboratory, the Czech veterinary office said ... H5N1 confirmed in three cases of bird flu in Czech Republic More bird flu found in Czech Republic Czechs Seek Chicken Import Limits As 10th Bird Flu Case Found |
Posted by dymaxion at 10:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Vietnam reports bird flu outbreaks near China
Via Reuters: Vietnam reports bird flu outbreaks near China.
Vietnam has detected bird flu on three farms near the Chinese border, the second such finding in the past few days, an animal health official said on Saturday.
Health workers slaughtered 157 chickens and ducks after farmers said 30 birds died on March 19 on three farms in Cao Bang province, said Dang Quang Binh, head of the provincial Animal Health Department.
"We sent samples for testing and on March 25 the results showed H5 was found in poultry samples from the three farms," Binh told Reuters by telephone from Cao Bang, 270 km (167 miles) north of Hanoi.
He was referring to the H5 subtype avian flu virus. No further tests were likely be done to confirm if the strain was H5N1, which has killed 42 people in Vietnam since late 2003.
Vietnam usually tests for the N component of the strain when a sample comes from a suspected human case. With poultry, the finding of H5 is enough to carry out preventive measures such as slaughter and disinfection of birds.
Posted by dymaxion at 10:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
H5N1 widespread in Azerbaijan
Via APA, the Azeri Press Information Agency: Diagnostic examinations on 4464 samples.
The examinations revealed separate forms of bird flu in 14 poultries, 20 wild birds, and 1 dog. As a result of the examinations, H5N1 form of the virus was detected in 7 wild birds among 1236 birds, and H5 form in 1 dog taken from Baku city...
And that was just in Baku. Tests revealed H5N1 and H5 all over the country.
Posted by dymaxion at 10:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack