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July 29, 2005

Economics of used books

Cory Doctorow: Here's a fantastic NYT article on the economics of the used book market. Many writers' orgs are freaked out because Amazon features used and new books alongside of one another, worried that used books will displace new book sales (there's also a lot of hoo-ha about review copies, publishers' rejects, and copies stolen from the printers, but even added up these account for an insignificant proportion of all but the smallest, most specialized book-runs). But economists understand that a market for used goods fuels a market for new goods -- would you pay nearly so much for your next car if you knew you couldn't sell it as used when you wanted to buy your next one? (this is one of the hidden, but gigantic downsides of DRM -- by prohibiting the market for used iTunes and other virtual goods, the sellers devalue their own products).
According to the researchers' calculations, Amazon earns, on average, $5.29 for a new book and about $2.94 on a used book. If each used sale displaced one new sale, this would be a less profitable proposition for Amazon.

But Mr. Bezos is not foolish. Used books, the economists found, are not strong substitutes for new books. An increase of 10 percent in new book prices would raise used sales by less than 1 percent. In economics jargon, the cross-price elasticity of demand is small.

One plausible explanation of this finding is that there are two distinct types of buyers: some purchase only new books, while others are quite happy to buy used books. As a result, the used market does not have a big impact in terms of lost sales in the new market.

Moreover, the presence of lower-priced books on the Amazon Web site, Mr. Bezos has noted, may lead customers to "visit our site more frequently, which in turn leads to higher sales of new books." The data appear to support Mr. Bezos on this point.

="http://radar.oreilly.com/">O'Reilly Radar)
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Konfabulator is Now Yahoo! Widgets (and Free)

I have been writing about Konfabulator since February 2005 and am a HUGE fan. When I do a PowerPoint presentation for work and my desktop shows up on the big screen, the widgets literally stop everything and people all want to know where they came from, and what the program is, etc. Yahoo made a smart move this week snapping up this company. I also find that they use very little memory or CPU power,…

Direct and Related Links for 'Konfabulator is Now Yahoo! Widgets (and Free)'

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Netflix near launch of movie downloads

Netflix near launch of movie downloads, according to SiliconValley.com. Sounds like the website glitch was real, and sources are confirming that the movie downloads will require a Netflix-provided set-top box:

One industry source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the new Netflix service would be similar to fledgling, studio-supported ventures like MovieLink and CinemaNow. Those services allow people to rent copy-protected movies and television shows over the Internet and watch them on their computers.

I've recently started up a Netflix account after leaving it dormant for 3 years. I can't wait to see what this service is like and will try my hardest to get a test unit for review.

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Microsoft prepares for a legal siege in Japan

The software giant is once again under fire for its alleged monopolistic practices, this time in Japan, and it faces the possibility of going up against three of the country's top electronics companies in court.
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40-inch LCD Prices Falling - Buy Two

According to market research firm iSuppli—get it? Like supply with an i—the prices of 40- and 42-inch LCD panels is swiftly falling down to about $950, meaning a nice big Christmas LCD will cost about $2,500 or less in December.

Smaller LCDs are almost free, now, at $550. Generally, there's a glut of these things out there which means more bigscreen Shark Week drink-a-thons next year.

40-inch LCD TV prices set to slum [TheInquirer]

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Earnins: Sony's Woes Continue

: Sony announced its second quarterly loss in a row and slashed its profit outlook, in its Q2 earnings. Sony posted a net loss of 7.3 billion yen ($65.2 million) in Q2, compared with a profit of 23.3 billion yen a year earlier. Sales dropped 3.3 percent to 1.56 trillion yen ($13.9 billion), from 1.61 trillion yen.
On the games side, it saw a 64 percent sales increase to 105.4 billion yen ($941.1 million). But the division also booked a 5.9 billion yen ($52.7 million) operating loss due to marketing and research expenses. That loss widened from 2.9 billion yen the previous year. Shipments of Sony PSP, which went on sale late last year in Japan and earlier this year in the U.S., totaled 2.09 million worldwide, while PS2 sales rose nearly fivefold to 3.53 million units.
Full results here.. FT: Lex Live: [Sony CEO Howard Stringer] has scope to withdraw from non-profitable segments like old-fashioned TVs. The movie business is lumpy and, since convergence of content and hardware is fairly elusive, could comfortably be spun off -- though Sir Howard, who cut his teeth at Sony in show business, may disagree. Games is also seen as integral, but any business that doubles its operating loss while lifting sales 64 per cent has to come under scrutiny. The fear, as ever, is that Sony avoids tough action: the beauty of rock-bottom expectations is that they are easy to out-perform."
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Shuttle Launch Sets Streaming Record

: Nearly 433,000 people tuned in to watch the Space Shuttle Discovery roar into space Tuesday morning, in an event that smashed a streaming video record set by AOL earlier this month. 335,000 people simultaneously watched via Yahoo in Windows Media, while Akamai served up the rest in Real Video format.
AOL jumped into the record books on July 2 when Live 8 concerts were streamed to over 175,000 people simultaneously.
One key factor in the number of video streams was the timing of Discovery's launch: 10:38am ET on Tuesday. Many Americans were at work and the Web was their only outlet to catch the historical moment.
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Google Trying To Patent Ads In RSS Feeds?

Google apparently doesn't want Microsoft to get away with all of the silly patent applications. The company, which was about the last one in the contextual advertising space to jump on the (somewhat annoying, honestly) "ads in RSS" bandwagon, has now filed for a patent on embedding ads in syndicated content. Again, considering that just about every contextual ad company is doing this without having read the Google patent (which was just released today), how could it possibly be described as non-obvious to a skilled practitioner?
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Cisco, Security Researcher Settle Dispute, Agree To Forget Talk Ever Happened

Following the story yesterday about Cisco suing a security researcher for doing a presentation on a huge vulnerability in Cisco routers, it appears the two sides have reached a settlement that basically says the guy will never speak about it again. He isn't to give the presentation again anywhere and all videos of the presentation were to be handed over to Cisco. Before the presentation, of course, Cisco employees had already ripped all the supporting material out of conference handouts, so that's missing also. So, the question is, can Cisco really make this disappear? Obviously there were some people who attended the session, and since the conference is all about hacking, you have to imagine a number of them fully understood the vulnerabilities being discussed. Are they all going to have to shut up about it too? It seems like a fairly difficult thing to try to sweep it under the rug and pretend it didn't happen.
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Automatic Surveillance Via Cell Phone

Your cell phone company knows where you are all the time. (Well, it knows where your phone is whenever it's on.) Turns out there's a lot of information to be mined in that data.

Eagle's Realty Mining project logged 350,000 hours of data over nine months about the location, proximity, activity and communication of volunteers, and was quickly able to guess whether two people were friends or just co-workers....

He and his team were able to create detailed views of life at the Media Lab, by observing how late people stayed at the lab, when they called one another and how much sleep students got.

Given enough data, Eagle's algorithms were able to predict what people -- especially professors and Media Lab employees -- would do next and be right up to 85 percent of the time.

isome from a number of angles: government surveillance, corporate surveillance for marketing purposes, criminal surveillance. I am not mollified by this comment:
People should not be too concerned about the data trails left by their phone, according to Chris Hoofnagle, associate director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center.

"The location data and billing records is protected by statute, and carriers are under a duty of confidentiality to protect it," Hoofnagle said.

ng an infrastructure of surveillance as a side effect of the convenience of carrying our cell phones everywhere.
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"Windows Vista: The Thud Heard Round The World"

The above quote is from John C. Dvorak from PCmag.com, PC magazine and his article, PC MagazineWindows Vista: Where’s the Buzz?” We have all come to think of John as a Apple hating, Unix hating, Windows PC user over the years. So that’s what makes his latest article so unusual. He starts out by making fun of the Vista name, which everyone does, including me, so just skip over that part. John then looks at why there is no buzz for Vista. He comes to the conclusion that many of us have come to and that’s that Windows Vista will offer nothing that it had originally promised 5 years ago. But he then looks at an interesting scenario.

When Vista is released, there will be a mass migration to OSX, which even though Jobs says will never be sold for PC users, Apple will eventually realize that Bill Gates became the richest person in the world by selling software, not hardware and will relent to public and stock holder pressure. Microsoft will fall back on it’s Office and Xbox products while Linux/Apache will take over the server space with MySQL and PHP as the hot development tools. Google will dominate the Internet and online applications. The rub would be if Google came out with an operating system as some have thought they would eventually.

I tend to think that until all the generic beige box manufacturers stop mindlessly throwing Windows on every computer the above scenario will not happen, most PC users do not have the knowledge to add or remove an operating system. But what I do see is that eventually users will not put up with operating systems that allow viruses and trojans, and ad-ware and spyware to shut down their computers. Eventually users will get fed up with software that limits support to a Mafia-type arrangement where you pay them for protection from the software itself. Then something will have to change.

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July 28, 2005

Inside Informix’ Demise

SandHill.com has a colorful essay on the rise and eventual demise of Informix, a database pioneer lost in Silicon shreds. Check out the story behind Informix’ revenue restatements, why former CEO Phil White did it and what today’s executives can learn from the experience. And we thought WorldCom was bad.

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Linux, Enterprise & Financial Sector

(Via Cworld) Open-source zealots may continue to play a part in instigating the spread of Linux across the European continent, - but private corporations and public-sector users in Europe typically cite pragmatic reasons for taking up the open-source operating system. They point to price and performance benefits. They want freedom to swap out hardware. They find the operating system reliable. They like its flexibility. Perhaps no single industry has tested Linux's enterprise mettle more than the financial services sector. Companies were facing mounting pressure to cut costs at the turn of the millennium. The Internet bubble was about to burst. Prices were fluctuating wildly. Order volume and data traffic were spiking in the wake of the electronic trading boom. Revenue was not. The number of stocks being traded was the same, and the rising cost of processing orders was becoming a big problem. When the market slump hit in 2001, that only exacerbated the trouble. Financial institutions had to think out of the box - fast -and Linux became an obvious alternative to consider. Several of the largest firms started to dump their proprietary Unix systems and shift to cheaper x86 hardware running Linux.

Linux enabled users to use a commodity platform. Trading in very expensive systems for much lower-priced commodity Intel systems was the biggest win. The Linux/Intel server combination would ultimately enable the firm to save "tens of millions of dollars" in IT costs across thousands of servers.Major financial institutions became one of the most powerful lobbies for Linux, pooling their clout to get their software vendors to support the operating system. They collectively urged their many software vendors to port applications to Linux. On the desktop, Linux support vendors continue to struggle for a high-profile success story that might drive adoption. Many projects have gone through the test phase only to encounter challenges with application support and integration when it comes time for the rollout.

"It's been the 'year of the Linux desktop' since 1998. It hasn't happened," says Chris Ingle, a London-based analyst at IDC. "You don't find CIOs saying, 'My biggest priority is changing all the desktops.' " Europe may outpace the U.S. with Linux desktop deployments, but even there, Linux captures only a small piece of the Windows-dominated market. And when it does, it's often thin-client or limited-function deployments, as opposed to the thick-client, knowledge-worker setups that Windows commands .


Category :
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Playing Poker Against AI

How could playing poker online ever become fair? The enforcement of no-teams and no-bots are hard to regulate. As AI becomes more sophisticated, we may eventually face the killer bot, capable of defeating champion poker players. Online poker sites have two choices: fight the bots or embrace them. And why wouldn’t they embrace them? Poker bots still pay the rake for each pot, so the online casino continue to flourish. Who knows? Online poker may turn into a virtual battlefield for AI.

via MSNBC

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July 25, 2005

Is Your Printer Spying On You?

Mark Frauenfelder: Donna Wentworth says: "Could your color laser printer be automatically including a secret fingerprint in every page so that what you print could be used to trace the document back to you?

"While it sounds like something from an episode of "Alias," the scenario isn't fictional. "

In an effort to identify counterfeiters, the US government has succeeded in persuading some color laser printer manufacturers to encode each page with identifying information. That means that without your knowledge or consent, an act you assume is private could become public. A communication tool you're using in everyday life could become a tool for government surveillance. And what's worse, there are no laws to prevent abuse. ... The ACLU recently issued a report revealing that the FBI has amassed more than 1,100 pages of documents on the organization since 2001, as well as documents concerning other non-violent groups, including Greenpeace and United for Peace and Justice. In the current political climate, it's not hard to imagine the government using the ability to determine who may have printed what document for purposes other than identifying counterfeiters. Your freedom to speak anonymously is in danger. Yet there are no laws to stop the Secret Service -- or for that matter, any other governmental agency or private company -- from using printer codes to secretly trace the origin of non-currency documents. We're unaware of any printer manufacturer that has a privacy policy that would protect you, and no law regulates what people can do with the information once it's turned over. And that doesn't even reach the issue of how such a privacy-invasive tool could be developed and implemented in printers without the public becoming aware of it in the first place.
"EFF is investigating further, but we need more data before we can do anything more to protect your privacy. We're asking you to help out by printing and sending us test sheets from your printer and/or your local print shop." Link

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Mugshot of man arrested for inhaling spray paint propellant

Mark Frauenfelder: Picture 9-1 From The Smoking Gun. This guy was arrested after attempting to buy spray paint at a hardware store. A sharp-eyed employee noticed the guy's face was covered with gold paint and called the cops. Link goes to larger pic and police report.
Link
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Arizona Soldier in Iraq demoted for Blogging

An Arizona Army National Guardsman who has been blogging from Iraq has been demoted and some of his pay is being forfeited, according to NPR. Leonard Clark, from Glendale, kept a blog in which he was critical of U-S operations in Iraq.
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Valley investments fly higher this quarter but not over last year

Link: MercuryNews.com | 07/25/2005 | Valley investments fly higher this quarter but not over last year.

Venture capitalists boosted their second-quarter investments in Silicon Valley private companies by 8 percent, to $1.802 billion, compared with the quarter before. That's the highest level in four quarters.

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Cell Phones Predict the Future

An anonymous reader writes "Wired News reports that cell phones were used in a recent project at MIT to both document and predict the lives of 100 MIT faculty and staff members. During the Reality Mining Project at MIT, Researcher Nathan Eagle logged 350,000 hours of data over nine months about the location, proximity, activity and communication of volunteers through cell phones carried by the participants. From the article, "Given enough data, Eagle's algorithms were able to predict what people -- especially professors and Media Lab employees -- would do next and be right up to 85 percent of the time."
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making shit up

Identical quotations and the truth, as disseminated by the US Military ...Following a car bombing in Baghdad on Sunday, the U.S. military issued a statement with a quotation attributed to an unidentified Iraqi that was virtually identical to a quote reacting to an attack on July 13. ... (quotes inside)
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World Cup Football May Generate $8.5 Billion For Mobile Companies

: (sub. req.) This report is sure to send ripples throughout the industry: according to estimates from Wireless World Forum, the Fifa World Cup in Germany next year could generate an additional $8.5 billion in revenues for the mobile telecoms industry.
The extra revenues would add more than 1 per cent to the global mobile industry's annual turnover of about $800bn. The report's authors estimate that the biggest single driver of the extra revenue will come from basic text messaging, which will account for $7.3bn of the potential increased spend.
The report suggests that mobile companies need to rethink: handset showcase may not be the biggest driver, but pure and simple messaging will: updates, alerts etc.
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Russia’s Biggest Spammer Murdered

Head of the . According to Mosnews, 35 year old Vardan Kushnir, Russia's largest spammer, was found dead in his Moscow apartment over the weekend. Kushnir was head of the American Language Center, a globally loathed (and frequently threatened) outfit which stoppe..
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Telus blocks out striking unions, and their websites. Days after half its employees walk…

The Canadian company is blocking Pro-Union website, says Broadband Reports.

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Yahoo! Buys Konfabulator

By tim I know this storyis all over the news, especially on Mac sites, but I wanted to call it out for another reason: as with the Google purchase of Keyhole, this is a purchase of a desktop software company by a web software company. I see these purchases as signs of that long term platform shift that I've been calling Web 2.0.  

I predicted this kind of thing in my open source paradigm shift talk at the O'Reilly Open Source Convention back in 2003, with the intentionally "out there" prediction that eBay would one day be in a position to buy Oracle. We're not that far along the curve yet, but the expectation that web companies will only buy other web companies should be put firmly into the trash bin.

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Netflix near launch of movie downloads

By rael As a user of TiVo, TiVo-to-go (dragging TV via my PC to DVD), Netflix, (and let's not forget PSP), this is just the next logical hop, skip, and jump....
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HP: This is Your Brain on Email

I have used a Blackberry for about three years now, and have noticed that I glance at the messages far too often, it has started to gain some of crackberry label given it, at least for me. Its convenient, yes, but also addicting. I notice it too being used by many more people in the halls these days. So its a good idea to understand what this continual connectivity means to us. Then I saw an article in CIO Insight, about research work at HP: "...a study on "info-mania" that suggests that too-frequent checking of e-mail and voice mail can lower your IQ up to ten points—which, for those keeping score, is a greater drop than researchers found in studying the effects of smoking marijuana ..."

Here is the HP page that introduces the study: ...HP calls for more appropriate use of “always-on” technology to improve productivity..., and their full HP Guide to Avoiding Info-Mania. The CIO Insight article also contains some reasonable criticisms of the study.

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July 22, 2005

Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Pulled From Store Shelves

This wildly popular game is being pulled from this morning. In a surprise move, RockStar Software, the publisher, has admitted that the controversial game really did have those sex scenes built in, though they continue to claim that they were never meant to see the light of day in customers’ hands….

Direct and Related Links for 'Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Pulled From Store Shelves'

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Google and Microsoft Lob More Lawsuits

crowemojo writes "According to a Business Week article Google has filed a counter-suit against Microsoft in reaction to the lawsuit that Microsoft filed when a corporate VP left to join the ranks of Google. Microsoft claims that the VP violated his non-compete agreement and Google claims that Microsoft is violating California laws giving workers the right to change jobs. Interestingly enough, the VP in question never lived in California!"
Sourced fromReblogged by dymaxion on July 22, 2005 07:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Microsoft sues Google over competitive hire

Google has hired a man with plans and fancy pants to match, and Microsoft isn't pleased. Why? For one, he oversaw Microsoft's search efforts.
Sourced fromReblogged by dymaxion on July 22, 2005 07:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Black Panther heirs seek spicy trademark

pant0705.jpg Former Black Panther associates of Huey P. Newton, the late co-founder of the militant organization, are seeking to trademark the phrase "Burn Baby Burn" so they can slap the words--long associated with conflagrations that left cities like Watts and Newark in cinders--on hot sauce.

According to pending filings with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, the Huey P. Newton Foundation also wants to trademark the phrase "Revolutionary Hot Sauce." The Oakland-based group, which is run by Newton's widow Fredrika and ex-Panther David Hilliard, submitted the trademark applications late last year and, according to USPTO records, appears close to securing government approval of its requests.

On the foundation's web site, the Newton group describes itself as a "community-based, non-profit research, education, and advocacy center dedicated to fostering progressive social change." It is unclear exactly what role spicy condiments play in this noble multicultural pursuit. (THE SMOKING GUN)

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AP To Launch Online Video Network

: This is in concurrent to the announcement below, but merits separate mention: AP will be launching an ad-supported online video news service, which would be available through AP member websites.
In exchange, AP members will share in revenue from the streaming video advertising carried on the network. Members would collect all the revenue from advertising generated by their own video.
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Skype's own video featureset is coming

skypeFrom the It Had To Happen Dept…

Skype has at least demonstrated their intention to release a video version of Skype known as SkypeSee, as they showed it off today at the AO2005 convention in Silicon Valley. By all accounts the video is superb, and Skype offers some unique features never before seen on Skype video add-ons, including full-screen video. Check it out at Skype Journal.

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© 2005 Weblogs, Inc.

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Attempting to Interview Ask Jeeves

This is the funniest thing I've seen today, aside from CNet blogging about parking at Yahoo. The folks at SatireWire decided to interview Ask Jeeves and ended up with amusing results.

It seems that we've haven't come that far since Eliza, have we? ;-)

Sourced fromReblogged by dymaxion on July 22, 2005 05:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Zone Alarm V6 Released

Includes Anti-spyware 'OSFirewall'. Zone Labs and Checkpoint Software have released the latest version of their software firewall Zone Alarm, the direct links posted to the Zone Labs forum. This press release discusses what's new, and users in our Security forum give their impressions..
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80% don't care about Satellite Radio

Filed under: , ,

Howard Stern on SIRIUSEastlan performed a study back in 2001, when Satellite Radio was in it's infancy, asking Americans whether they had any interest in purchasing a new satellite delivered radio service. 80% said "no."

Now, four years later, it seems that the answer hasn't really changed. A new study, again performed by Eastlan, shows that yet again 80% of Americans have little interest in Satellite Radio and are unlikely to subscribe anytime in the future. In this new study, they found that 5% are currently subscribing and another 5% had no clue the hell Satellite Radio was - while an additional 9% are likely to subscribe sometime in the future.

You have to wonder what this means in terms of big name radio celebrities like Howard Stern jumping ship to Satellite. Will this 80% number change because his listeners are loyal to him? Or will it remain the same as drive-time listeners move on to the next morning show?
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Greasemonkey's Slippery Side

Just in case you haven't seen it elsewhere, it's being recommended you uninstall Greasemonkey, a Firefox (and Opera) script tool, because of a serious flaw that serious flaw that leaves all your files vulnerable:

In other words, running a Greasemonkey script on a site can expose the contents of every file on your local hard drive to that site. Running a Greasemonkey script with "@include *" (which, BTW, is the default if no parameter is specified) can expose the contents of every file on your local hard drive to every site you visit. And, because GM_xmlhttpRequest can use POST as well as GET, an attacker can quietly send this information anywhere in the world.

They're working on it, but for now it's better to be safe than sorry.

Sourced fromReblogged by dymaxion on July 22, 2005 04:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Citizen Photographers Get Their Own Agency

Fueling the discussion about whether it’s ok for citizens to take photos of their fellow citizens’ suffering and makemoney from it, welcome to Scoopt: the citizen journalist's photographic agency, selling mobile phone and digital camera pictures to the press and media:

Who will take tomorrow's front page photograph - a professional press photographer or a passer-by armed with a cameraphone?

Virtually everybody now has a mobile phone, and virtually every mobile phone now comes with a camera. Britain on Britain supplementThis means that somebody, somewhere is in a position to photograph just about anything that happens on the planet.

If you photograph a newsworthy event, you could have a valuable scoop on your hands. Scoopt represents you, making sure the right people see your photo and ensuring that you get a good deal. Scoopt is simple. Scoopt works. Above all, Scoopt works for you. Join Scoopt today. Snap... Send... Sell...

With another major security alert in London going on as I write, it’s timely.

I know I’m fence-sitting, but I don’t have a view on this yet. It’s hard enough as a journalist being in the middle of carnage or lynchings and not doing anything about it, so I’m not one to throw stones. I suppose you do hope that in the situation you’re able to do both: chronicle the situation for a wider audience (think of how useful those moblog pictures of those caught inside the Underground helped us understand how awful it was for them down there, an empathy that will help unite citizens in grief, horror and determination to thwart the terrorist’s aims) and then help. But I know that’s easier said than done.

(Thanks, Graham. )

Sourced fromReblogged by dymaxion on July 22, 2005 04:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

How to choose the right iPod for you

iPod.jpg

Multi-iPod owner Christopher Breen breaks down the three different iPods on the market by price and feature for folks considering buying or upgrading their little white music player. If you're not sure what all the differences are between the Mini, Shuffle and regular iPod are right now, this is the buying guide for you.

Sourced fromReblogged by dymaxion on July 22, 2005 04:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

eBay versus Google (2Q05 conf call quotes, EBAY, GOOG)

eBay CEO Meg Whitman explicitly stated on her Q2 conf call what many already surmised: that eBay and Google compete directly. Excerpts:

...you may not think of eBay as a search engine, but of course helping buyers find the item they want is a critical function of our platform, and our efforts here have already led to surprising results in the U.S. The number of searches performed on eBay actually puts us on par with Google, and our searches are all about shopping, buyers looking for items to bid on.

Magellan is our next generation search capability… which is in beta right now and will be rolled out over the next couple of months… The more effective we can make finding, the higher the conversion rates, the more robust marketplace it is for buyers and sellers… what Magellan does is… characterize free text listings in a much more robust way than we've been able to do it thus far.

(Quotes are from the CCBN StreetEvents transcript.)

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Sourced fromReblogged by dymaxion on July 22, 2005 04:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Skype’s imaginary billions

CNET News.com has often been in trouble with the bloggers. If you read this line, you know why. “Skype’s annual revenue has not been disclosed, but analysts suggest that it could be in the $6 billion to $10 billion range.” Did no one even question this statement? it is ridiculous. James Enck writes, “I don’t know which analysts they’ve been talking to, but Skype revenue estimates of $6 - 10bn would make it two to three times the size of Google.”

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Implications of today's Chinese currency re-valuation

The Chinese government announced it has re-valued its currency by 2.1%.

  • Effective immediately the exchange rate will shift from RMB 8.28 to the US $ to RMB 8.11 to the US $.
  • The RMB (Yuan) will no longer be pegged to the US dollar and will float in a tight 0.3% band against a basket of foreign currencies beginning tomorrow.

How will the re-valuation affect both Chinese companies and those companies doing business in China? We have comprehensive coverage on re-valuation including interviews with public company CEOs, quotes from management teams of public companies (from conference call transcripts), and analysis from external sources:

  1. Barron's on stocks that could benefit from re-valuation
  2. Business Week on stocks that could benefit from re-valuation
  3. NY Times on winners and losers from re-valuation
  4. Matthews China (ticker: MCHFX) fund manager on re-valuation
  5. How re-valuation affects China ETFs FXI and PGJ
  6. A major US retailer on possible effects of re-valuation on its business
  7. Ctrip (ticker: CTRP) on possible effects of re-valuation on its business
  8. A Chinese micro-cap company CEO on re-valuation
  9. How re-valuation might affect China real estate
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China Vs India – Digital Online Market

China is way ahead in the online market compared to India. Undeterred by China's restrictions, Yahoo, which owns the world's most-visited Web portal, invested $120 million in a Chinese search engine in 2003. Last year it started an auction site in China, where total online revenue hit $1.1 billion. India, an English-speaking democracy that allows freer flow of information, had online revenue of just $93 million. It does seem ironic that India, with its democratic government and free press, is so far behind China in developing its Internet market," says David Wolf, managing director of Wolf Group Asia, a Beijing-based regional consulting firm. The simple reason is that China has the infrastructure and India doesn't. The number of Web users in China has expanded sevenfold in eight years to 94 million. India, whose population of 1.1 billion is close to China's, has 24 million Internet users. Yahoo employs 600 people in China, 10 times as many as in India. The Chinese government has paved the way for Internet growth by investing $138 billion in telecommunications networks in the past five years. China's online revenue - which includes sales from advertising and from Internet gaming and wireless services - grew 35 percent last year to $1.1 billion and is expected to rise 30 percent in 2005.China is a giant market that's growing quickly. There's a lot more demand that can be satisfied. By contrast, India - generated about $93 million in online revenue last year, MindShare estimates. India's 24 million Internet users, are about a quarter of China's 94 million Web surfers. The teledensity is 1: 1.19 in china to 1:11 in India. Venture-capital firms made $177 million in Internet-related investments in China in 2003 and 2004, four times more than the $44 million India attracted.


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Knowledge of Tech Terms

This is a fun statistic, as mentioned by Gary Price. Which tech terms do Americans internet users know, on average? Because if you're very tech-savvy (if you read this blog, you must be), the less you may understand how much people on average know ...
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July 19, 2005

What's killing Hollywood (not piracy!)

Cory Doctorow: This short, sharp list of what's killing Hollywood is pithy and to the point, and the perfect note to sign off for the weekend with -- I'm going away for a couple days' worth of birthday celebration and I'll be back on Tuesdayish!
1. Hollywood cannot control its marketing costs or star salaries. The growing importance of DVDs increases the "needle in the haystack" problem for any single film and thus locks studios into more marketing, creating a vicious spiral.

2. TV is now so much better, and offers artists greater creative freedom. Why watch movies?

3. The Internet is outcompeting cinema, whether at the multiplex or on DVD.

4. Big TV screens are keeping people at home, which lowers box office receipts. This also hurts the long-term prospects of many DVDs.

5. The demand for DVDs has fallen because movie lovers have completed their core collections, just as the demands for classical CDs have fallen.

6. The demand for DVDs was due to fall in any case. Forget the collectors, you buy DVDs to have a stock on hand so you don't have to run out to the video store on short notice. Now everyone has a stock. Stocks must be replenished every now and then, but there is no longer a large new cohort simultaneously building up a stock from scratch.

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Why are all the blog search engines so terrible?

When I first started tracking discussions in the blogosphere, I used Google, which, while it had the benefit of not forcing me to actually type in a URL since it was already integrated into my browser, wasn’t a great solution because - as of yet - Google doesn’t track blog articles, per se. They show up eventually, but mixed in with the rest of the Web. Then I was turned on to Technorati and used…

Direct and Related Links for 'Why are all the blog search engines so terrible?'

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