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September 30, 2005

Arctic may have no ice at all in 55 years


or="#993300">(China Daily) Updated: 2005-09-30 05:59

DENVER, the United States: New satellite observations show that sea ice in the Arctic is melting faster while air temperatures in the region are rising sharply, scientists say.

Since 2002, satellite data has revealed unusually early springtime melting in areas north of Siberia and Alaska. Now the melting trend has spread throughout the Arctic, according to a national collaboration of scientists.

The latest observations through September show that melting in 2005 began a record 17 days earlier than usual.

The observations showed 5.27 million square kilometres of sea ice as late as September 19. It is the lowest measurement of Arctic sea ice cover ever recorded, researchers said, and 20 per cent less than the average end-of-summer ice pack cover measurements recorded since 1978.

At the same time, average air temperatures across most of the Arctic region from January to August 2005 were as much as 2 C warmer than the average over the last 50 years, said the team of researchers from two universities and NASA.

"The melting and retreat trends are accelerating," Ted Scambos, of the University of Colorado at Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), said in a statement released by the university. The results have not yet been published in a scientific journal.

"The one common thread," Scambos said, "is that Arctic temperatures over the ice, ocean and surrounding land have increased in recent decades."

The scientists stopped short of directly blaming the melting trend on global warming but said they have few other explanations at this point.

Mark Serreze, another researcher at the snow and ice data centre, said: " I think the evidence is growing very, very strong that part of what we're seeing now is the increased greenhouse effect."

The researchers used satellite data from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Defence Department, as well as data from Canadian satellites and weather observatories.

The Colorado institute led the study that also involved two NASA laboratories, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Washington.

Sea ice records in the Arctic are sketchy before 1978. Since satellite observations began in earnest, researchers say Arctic ice has been retreating at a rate of more than 8 per cent per decade.

If the shrinking trend continues at its present rate, there could be no ice at all at the pole as early as the summer of 2060.

And, they suspect, melting may only contribute to even higher arctic temperatures in the future. This is because the bright white ice tends to reflect more of the sun's radiation. With more of the dark ocean exposed, the seawater absorbs more heat, reducing the amount of solar energy reflected back into space.

As sea ice is already floating, it does not raise global sea levels when it melts. Changes in its extent, however, can have a major effect on the habitats of species such as polar bears.

"Polar bears must wait out the summer melt season on land, using their stored fat until they can return to the ice," Roger Barry, director of NSIDC, said, "but if winter recovery and sea ice extent continue to decline, how will these beasts survive?"

Chinese researchers also have a keen interest in sea ice in the Arctic.

"As the temperatures in the Arctic keep rising, the permanent frozen earth there is melting and shrinking to the north, thus narrowing animal and plant habitats," said Zhan Zhanhai, a sea ice expert and director of the Polar Research Institute of China.

"The retreating sea ice can disrupt the original climate system and affect weather in China," he said.

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Sea ice melting faster in Arctic, researchers say

to reflect more of the sun's radiation. With more of the dark ocean exposed, the seawater tends to absorb more heat and reduce the amount of solar energy reflected back into space.

Posted by dymaxion at 12:44 PM | Comments (0)

Nuclear debate is a dead end, renewable energy is the way forward

... on solar energy - even though government funding for it has been greatly reduced. We can create both...-sustainable energy production with another, albeit much more dangerous and toxic. Nuclear power... better for us to focus on developing technology for harnessing and using energy from truly ...

Peter Campbell's blog on the state of the planet Technorati this

Posted by dymaxion at 12:42 PM | Comments (0)

Solar energy firm's listing reveals market's new interest

Shares in the solar energy specialist ErSol rocketed skywards on their first day of trading on the Frankfurt stock exchange on Friday, spotlighting investors' growing interest in

Posted by dymaxion at 12:26 PM | Comments (0)

September 22, 2005

A Heads Up

For those of you who've stumbled across this site, you've actually come to a beta design of a new feature on the Dymaxion Web that will aim to cover a wide swath of news and opinion from around the web. As is our custom on our other sites, we regularly monitor the latest and most intriguing content we come through the magic of RSS and the latest search technology. 

Our sources range from scientists, industry, news outlets and bloggers of all stripes. If you are interested in keeping up to date on what is going on around the Web, bookmark this site or subscribe to it in your favorite RSS reader.

If ever there was a better time for a Manhattan-type approach to solving the world's growing energy and climate problems, we can't imagine it.  We hope you will appreciate our work and join in whatever way you can.  We are always open to suggestions or offers for help in keeping this round-up as relevant as possible.. 

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direct

This is what entry looks like if it comes direct.

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Solar power basics for beginners - for your solar power project

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India's President Seeks Energy Security

These would in turn reduce the cost of solar energy production. ... We thus need to embark on a major national programme in solar energy systems and ... By the year 2030, India should achieve energy independence through solar power and ...

Posted by dymaxion at 03:10 PM | Comments (0)

Chemists Look for Better Ways to Store Solar Energy

Caltech and MIT chemists have launched a new research program to pursue efficient, economical ways to store solar energy in the form of chemical bonds.

Posted by dymaxion at 03:09 PM | Comments (0)

Profiting from Peak Oil

What about alternative energy companies, you ask? Wind power, solar energy, geothermal, biomass, biodiesel? I am convinced there will be major winners and losers in the alternative energy category. I just don’t know how to pick the ...

Posted by dymaxion at 03:07 PM | Comments (0)

Required Solar Energy

MSNBC - Roseville Electric, in Sacramento, CA, wants to require solar energy in some of the city's thousands of new homes as soon as next spring, four years ahead of a similar rule proposed by state legislators. Read More...

Posted by dymaxion at 03:03 PM | Comments (0)

Photovoltaic Concentrators To Reach Cost Effectiveness In Few Years?

How close are we to cost effective photovoltaic cells? Golden, Colo. — Solar concentrators using highly efficient photovoltaic solar cells will reduce...

Posted by dymaxion at 03:02 PM | Comments (0)

Fresh Heat for Energy Policy - BusinessWeek



Fuel Cell Works
Fresh Heat for Energy Policy
BusinessWeek - Sep 19, 2005
... The Energy Dept. has a research and development budget of $14 billion a year, of which only $75 million goes to develop solar energy. ...
Jersey presses case for hydrogen as a fuel source Newark Star Ledger
all 5 related

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September 21, 2005

Flu researchers slam US agency for hoarding data - Better sharing of information would help vaccine design.

 
Flu researchers slam US agency for hoarding data - Better sharing of information would help vaccine design. (info)
http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050919/full/437458a.html
"But investigations by Nature have revealed widespread concern that too few of the flu data collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta are made generally available. Experts say research would speed up if the CDC's influenza branch threw open its databases of virus sequences and immunological and epidemiological data."

Posted by dymaxion at 05:49 PM | Comments (0)

WHO | Avian influenza - situation in Viet Nam – update 30

 
WHO | Avian influenza - situation in Viet Nam – update 30 (info)
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_09_19/en/index.html
"The Ministry of Health in Viet Nam has retrospectively confirmed an additional fatal case of H5N1 infection that dates back to July. The case, in a 35-year-old male farmer from Ben Tre Province, developed symptoms on 25 July and died on 31 July. The newly confirmed case brings the total in Viet Nam since mid-December 2004 to 64 cases, of which 21 were fatal."
Posted by Declan to Vietnam AvianFlu cases on Wed Sep 21 2005 at 10:08 UTC

Posted by dymaxion at 05:48 PM | Comments (0)

Tamiflu

克流感(Tamiflu)最近獲衛生署核淮上巿,成為社會大眾對抗流行性感冒(流感)的一項新利器。看到‘克流感’讓我聯想到‘克蟑’,很土卻很響亮的名字。克流感是什麼樣的藥?克流感比較有效,還是流感疫苗比較有效?

談克流感之前應該先再認識一下流感。流感(influenza)是由流行性感冒病毒(influenza virus)所引起的傳染性疾病,流行性感冒病毒分為A、B、C三型,會引起人類社會大流行的主要是A型及B型,其中A型又含有各種不同的亞型(如,H1N1、H3N2、H5N1...)。

不同類型的流感有不同的表面抗原,而且變異性很高。流感病毒的表面抗原中含有一種重要的表面蛋白質----神經胺酸脢(應作‘西每’)(neuraminidase)。此神經胺酸脢的活性部位(active site)在不同型的流感病毒株中卻都是相同的。神經胺酸脢是用來促使利用宿主細胞完成複製的病毒從宿主細胞中釋放出來,同時幫助病毒穿透呼吸道的粘膜細胞。一旦此蛋白質的功能遭到抑制,病毒的複製及感染的能力即受到破壞。

克流感的主要成份是 oseltamivir,它是神經胺酸脢的抑制劑,會作用在流感病毒的神經胺酸脢的活性部位,使受感染的宿主細胞所製造出來的新病毒顆粒無法釋放出來,因而阻止了流感病毒的複製與擴散。因為此活性部位在各類型流感病毒皆相同,所以,克流感對A型及B型流感皆有效。它可以使感染到流感的患者提早2-3天恢復到正常體能及活動力。同時使流感病狀減輕約40%。

克流感膠囊一粒含oseltamivir 75mg,用法是早晚各一粒,連吃五天,最好能夠在症狀初現時即開始服用,才能有最佳的療效。目前我們的衛生署只核淮給成年人服用,但此藥在美已上巿已兩年,去年十二月也開始核淮給一歲以上的兒童使用。

克流感也可用來在流感流行時期作為預防性的用藥,用法是在流行時每日服用一粒。不過,想想看,克流感可是超貴的,一盒十粒裝,定價一千一百元!一粒就要一百多元,流行期有時長達1-2月,想想看,你準備花多少錢來預防流感?

就預防層面來說,可能流感疫苗比較經濟。流感疫苗已上巿好幾年,也開始降價了,今年可能六百元就可打得到(去年之前要八百元)。不過流感疫苗是每年依世界衛生組織所預測今年將流行的病毒株所製造出來的,比如,今年的流感疫苗就包含了三個病毒株:A型墨西哥株(Moscow)、A型新卡連德納株(New caledonia)及B型四川株(Sichuan)。因為如前所述,流感的各個病毒株的表面抗原皆不相同,如果今年所發生流行的病毒株恰巧不在疫苗的三個病毒株裡的話,那麼疫苗的效果就要大打折扣了。

打了流感疫苗之後,大約要二個星期後才開始有保護效果。而且,它只有預防效果,沒有治療效果。所以,如果,你沒有在事先打了流感疫苗,卻不幸染上了流感,又剛好在未來幾天有重要的事情需要打拚,或者,你的免疫力很差,容易因流感而發生嚴重的併發症的話,快找醫生處方並自費購買克流感吧!因為,它是處方藥,而且健保不給付!

From Antwerp (feed)
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CEGAH FLU BURUNG!!!

Keberadaan virus H5N1 di indonesia sudah mulai bikin kita gerah. Gimana enggak? Virus ini sudah memakan korban jiwa. Belum jelas si korban terinfeksi virus ini dari unggas atau tertular antar manusia.


Menurut WHO yang harus dilakukan:

  • Hindari kontak dengan unggas jenis apapun, dengan bulu bulunya, kotoran maupun limbahnya.

  • Jangan memelihara unggas sebagai hewan kesayangan.

  • Cucilah tangan dengan air dan sabun setiap sesudah bersentuhan dengan unggas.

  • Jangan tidur di dekat tempat pemeliharaan unggas.


  • Baca selengkapnya...



    Paling penting adalah tetap menjaga kebugaran tubuh. Usahakan agar kita tidak terkena flu 'manusia'. Dan ingat bahwa Bel' Air adalah produk lengkap yang memiliki kemampuan sebagai:


    PEMBERSIH UDARA yang menggunakan minyak nabati (essential oil) yang mampu MENJERNIHKAN UDARA dengan menghilangkan polusi, bau tak sedap sampai bakteri-virus-jamur di udara dan juga bisa MERINGANKAN PENYAKIT

    k menjaga stamina agar tetap sehat, cukup gunakan Euca atau Thyme oil. Atau tetap gunakan oil yang Anda gunakan untuk terapi.

    materapi (feed)
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    Posted by dymaxion at 05:45 PM | Comments (0)

    Resistance to anti-flu drugs increases - study. (HEALTH-FLU) 2005-09-21 15:23:02



    (Embargoed for release on Sept 21 at 23:01 GMT)

    LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Resistance to anti-flu drugs has risen by 12 percent worldwide in the past decade, scientists said on Thursday in a finding that could pose problems for health officials trying to avert a pandemic.

    Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta found resistance to a class of drugs used to treat influenza for more than 30 years rose from 0.4 percent in 1994-1995 to 12.3 percent by 2004.

    In some countries in Asia, where scientists suspect the next strain of flu with pandemic potential will originate, drug resistance exceeded 70 percent.

    “Our report has broad implications for agencies and governments planning to stockpile these drugs for epidemic and pandemic strains of influenza,” said Dr Rick Bright of the CDC.

    The findings, which are reported online by The Lancet medical journal, suggest the drugs amantadine and rimantadine will probably no longer be effective for treatment or as a preventive in a pandemic outbreak of flu.

    The drugs, known as adamantane derivatives, inhibit the replication of the influenza A virus. But they do not work against influenza B viruses or the H5N1 strain of bird flu that has killed more than 60 people since late 2003.

    Although it is not easily transmitted from person to person, public health officials fear the H5N1 strain could mutate and cause a worldwide pandemic.

    Two other drugs, Roche’s Holding AG’s Tamiflu and GlaxoSmithKline’s Relenza which belong to another class called neuraminidase inhibitors, have been shown to reduce the severity of a flu infection and prevent it in some cases.

    The World Health Organisation recommends governments build stockpiles of neuraminidase inhibitors in case a pandemic develops.

    The CDC researchers said their study of 7,000 influenza A viruses obtained worldwide is the largest and most comprehensive report on adamantane resistance to date.

    The researchers did not explain why there was an increase in resistance.

    About 5 percent to 20 percent of the population in the United States gets the flu each year, according to the CDC.

    “Our data raise concern about the increasing incidence of adamantane-resistance influenza A viruses circulating throughout the world and draw attention to the importance of tracking the emergence and worldwide spread of drug-resistant viruses,” the scientists said.

    In a separate report that assessed 64 studies of the impact of flu vaccines in the elderly, researchers in Italy found the vaccines were not effective against influenza or pneumonia but prevented up to 30 percent of hospitalisations for pneumonia.

    In people living in long-term care facilities the vaccines prevented up to 42 percent of deaths from the flu and pneumonia.

    REUTERS Reut19:23 09-21-05

    Copyright: (c) TWP, AP, Reuters, others as appropriate

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    "The evidence for transmission of H5N1 via casual contact is growing"

    Hospitalized H5N1 Zoo Workers Grow to Three From Recombinomics. In Indonesia, a 28-year-old guide and a 39-year-old vendor at a popular zoo in the capital were hospitalized Tuesday with symptoms of bird flu, said I Nyoman Kandun, ...

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:42 PM | Comments (0)

    Esperando La Mutación


    Publicado en EL CORREO
    Territorios, Ciencia-Futuro
    Miércoles 14 de septiembre de 2005

    La gripe aviar es una enfermedad que puede “dar el salto” a la especie humana. Sólo falta una mutación que le permita quedarse entre nosotros...

    Desde el año pasado, la Organización Mundial de la Salud está alertando de la posible aparición de una nueva pandemia: una enfermedad que se transmite entre humanos y que provoca el SRAS (síndrome respiratorio agudo severo), que fue comenzado a ser detectado en poblaciones de Asia. Aunque hasta el momento no se ha demostrado que algo así exista, los expertos en epidemiología siguen de cerca la trayectoria de esta enfermedad, muy virulenta (se estima una mortalidad del 10%, frente al 2% de las gripes que amenazan a los humanos), porque algunos casos, detectados en el mes de junio en Yakarta (Indonesia) parecían indicar una transmisión entre humanos: ninguno de los enfermos habían tenido contacto con aves, que es la vía habitual de transmisión, aunque en estos casos -ni en otros anteriores- se ha demostrado la temida transmisión entre humanos.

    Se trata así de una zoonosis, es decir, de una enfermedad que llega al hombre desde un animal. Esta variante humana de una enfermedad de las aves, la denominada gripe aviar, es responsable de poco más de un centenar de muertes humanas registradas en todo el mundo en los últimos ocho años. El director del programa de Vigilancia de Enfermedades infecciosas de la OMS, Guenael Rodier, advertía que “la posibilidad de que el virus aviar H5N1 contagie a los humanos está siendo seriamente evaluada: nuevos modelos de predicción indican que un virus así podría dar una vuelta al mundo en tres meses”.

    Los estudios que se han realizado por parte de comités internacionales intentan ahora analizar la situación evitando falsas alarmas, o la creación de una cierta histeria colectiva. Por ejemplo, hace sólo un mes se pensaba que una probable vía de llegada de la gripe aviar a Europa sería la emigración de aves desde Siberia (infectadas allí y con capacidad de transmitir a los humanos la enfermedad). Sin dejar de considerar el proceso como posible (lo que llevó ya el año pasado a países como Holanda a restringir la presencia de aves de consumo humano en el exterior, para evitar el contacto con aves migratorias), las resoluciones europeas son más conservadoras. Pero la OMS ha confirmado la presencia de gripe aviar en Rusia y Kazajistán en agosto (hasta entonces sólo se había confirmado en Siberia), es decir, que el virus de las aves ha roto el confinamiento del sureste asiático, donde provocó (directa o indirectamente, mediante matanzas realizadas para paralizar la epidemia) la muerte de más de 150 millones de aves.

    Un coronavirus
    El agente patógeno de la gripe aviar es un coronavirus parecido al causante de la gripe humana, que se transmite en gotas de saliva, secrecciones nasales y por las heces, que afecta a todo tipo de aves y, según se ha comprobado, a algunos mamíferos (en parte, las transmisiones a humanos en Asia se produjeron por el contacto con civetas infectadas, por ejemplo). Una de los subtipos detectados de este virus, el H5N1, es el identificado en los casos humanos del SRAS, aunque sólo es uno de los muchos existentes. Los subtipos que normalmente afectan a los humanos son tres: H1N1, H1N2 y H3N2. ¿Podría producirse una mutación del H5N1 para conseguir que fuera capaz de usar a los humanos como lo hacen esos subtipos? Este es el gran temor de los expertos, porque el virus de la gripe muestra una gran capacidad de adaptación y mutación.

    El H5N1 fue detectado en 1961 en aves en Sudáfrica, y posteriormente se vio que circulaba por todo el mundo, aunque no afectaba a los humanos. Sin embargo, se observó un primer caso de contagio humano en 1997, durante un brote de la gripe aviar en Hong Kong. Entre 2003 y 2004 se produjo el mayor brote observado, en varios países asiáticos (Camboya, China, Indonesia, Corea del Sur, Tailandia y Vietnam), que se creyó controlado a mediados del año pasado. Aunque existe un tratamiento antiviral para esa gripe, no hay una vacuna que pueda aplicarse, aunque ya en abril se comenzaron a ensayar posibles vacunas, variantes de las que se usan en otros subtipos de gripe que afectan a aves. En los casos de transmisión a humanos, el H5N1 se ha demostrado como muy virulento (una mortalidad cercana al 50% de los casos diagnosticados), pero tiene una transmisibilidad muy baja de aves a humanos.

    La Mutación
    El peligro es que, como los demás subtipos del virus, una mutación del H5N1 le permita dar el salto definitivo entre especies, y convertirse en una enfermedad humana. Los expertos creen que no sería el primer caso, y en las grandes epidemias de gripe sufridas en el siglo XX se ha estudiado una posible conexión con gripes aviares como explicación de la amplia distribución de los brotes. Por ejemplo, la llamada “gripe asiática” de 1957, que causó más de un millón de muertes. E igualmente sucedió en 1914, con la que se denominó “gripe española” durante la Primera Guerra Mundial, responsable de más de veinte millones de muertos.

    Los expertos estiman que el virus de la gripe (virus influenzae) existe desde hace unos 80 millones de años: es un antiguo superviviente entre muchas especies de animales, principalmente aves y mamíferos. Los más de 130 subtipos conocidos atestiguan su gran capacidad de adaptación. Afortunadamente, sólo en contadas ocasiones se han juntado los dos aspectos más peligrosos desde el punto de vista epidemiológico: alta transmisibilidad -que sobreviva en el aire o en el agua bastante tiempo como para facilitar el contagio- y alta virulencia -que provoque un síndrome gripal con alta mortalidad-.

    Salto Entre Especies
    Una de las causas comprobadas de pandemias que han afectado al ser humano es la transmisión de enfermedades que resultan capaces de saltar desde otras especies. Los epidemiólogos alertan que uno de los efectos de la globalización será la aparición de nuevas zoonosis: la mayor movilidad de animales por todo el mundo puede saltar los controles sanitarios habituales el tiempo suficiente (dependiendo de la virulencia de la enfermedad) como para crear una nueva pandemia. Hace unos años se detectó una nueva enfermedad que ha pasado de los caballos a los humanos, el llamado “virus de Hendra”, detectado en Australia. Algunos paramixovirus, hantavirus y de otras familias, como el rabiavirus, están siendo detectados. Igualmente, virus que causan fiebres hemorrágicas (Ebola), saltando de los monos al hombre, crean brotes virulentos en África. En la génesis de la pandemia del sida se cree probable un salto de este tipo desde otros primates.

    Los expertos creen que estos saltos, propiciados por la alta capacidad de mutar que tiene el material genético de algunos tipos de virus, se dan de forma puntual en lugares donde hay un hacinamiento humano y animal con pocas condiciones de higiene. Suelen ser versiones poco activas de virus que existían antes, y que desarrollan una alta latencia, es decir, que pueden permanecer bastante tiempo fuera de su entorno habitual, lo que favorece el contagio. Como consuelo, los virólogos estiman que también la globalización, la de los programas de vigilancia epidemiológica y detección temprana de nuevas enfermedades emergentes, serán elementos que nos irán permitiendo un control de las mismas.


    (Una entrada de hace año y medio sobre zoonosis: Animales peligrosos)


    Posted by dymaxion at 05:27 PM | Comments (0)

    Seventh H5N1 Fatality in Jakarta Denied Treatment - Recombinomics


    Seventh H5N1 Fatality in Jakarta Denied Treatment
    Recombinomics, PA - 8 hours ago
    ... On the three function units were Riska Ardian, who died yesterday, Mutiara Gaytri, who is H5N1 positive and is a contact of an 18 month old, initials RH, and ...

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:26 PM | Comments (0)

    World has slim chance to stop flu pandemic

    In a matter of hours, the tone of avian-flu news has darkened. The Jakarta cases look like the real thing: H2H, human-to-human transmission of a virus that kills over half of those it infects. The latest story on ABC News seems fairly typical of the new mood.

    On a beautiful end-of-summer afternoon in Vancouver, with golden sunlight flooding over the flowers in my wife's garden, it seems strange to say: "This could be it." But this could be it.

    I spoke to my colleagues at a faculty-association meeting today, asking that we organize a college-wide emergency-planning committee that would work with municipal, provincial and federal agencies. A little to my surprise, the response was a unanimous vote of support. That's encouraging, but I think we're going to have to work fast.

    Maybe we'll look back on the summer of 2005 the way our grandparents and great-grandparents looked back on the summers of 1939 and 1914: as the last sweet summer before the darkness. I hope I'm mistaken.

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:23 PM | Comments (0)

    Bird flu conventional wisdom?Effect Measure

    As a wise person once said, "It's not what I don't know that scares me. It's what I think I know and I'm wrong about." The current H5N1 outbreak in Indonesia requires we look at our conventional wisdom about transmission and presentation of this disease. In an electronic version of the Clinicians Biosecurity Network Weekly Bulletin yesterday (9/19/05), Borio and Bartlett reviewed a recent article in the Journal of Infectious Diseases (J Infect Dis. 2005 Oct 15;192(8):1311-4) by Frederick Hayden and Alice Croisier. Several points are made.

    Conventional wisdom is that transmission of influenza is primarily human-to-human via respiratory droplets, with possibly some transmission via hands (handshakes, etc.) or inanimate objects with viable virus on them. But with many reports of viral particles in bird feces and in one case at least in human feces, the possibility of the fecal - oral route must be considered. This means the gastrointestinal tract is a route of exposure, consistent with reports of infection by consumption of undercooked poultry.If the virus can infect the human intestine (as it does the intestines of birds), then the persistent reports of diarrhea being a common presenting symptom must be clearly recognized, not as a rare presentation but a relatively common one.

    The JID article also reports that a WHO study done this year shows that 30% of the Vietnamese cases do not give a history of contact with infected poultry. This suggests, once again, that there might already be much undetected human-to-human transmission of relatively mild disease in southeast asia. We have already made this point a number of times. The absence of any systematic seroprevalence surveys in the area is to be deplored. We should know the answer to this question by now.

    In past pandemics there have usually been several waves, the first of which is often milder, with the second the most severe. If it is true that we may have already experienced a mild wave in southeast asia last spring, this bodes ill for the coming months. While it is quite possible that the Indonesian episode is a false alarm, alarm is now appropriate, false or otherwise. Time is getting short for individual communities to mobilize and organize themselves to minimize the consequences of what potentially is a much more serious threat than Hurricane Katrina. This is a warning of a global hurricane. And we are no more prepared than were the authorities in New Orleans.

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:22 PM | Comments (0)

    Avian Flu UpdatePowerpundit

    "Epidemic" in Indonesia:

    JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia called an outbreak of bird flu in its teeming capital an epidemic on Wednesday as health and agricultural experts from around the world converged on Jakarta to help control the virus.

    iti Fadillah Supari said the emergence of sporadic human cases of bird flu in recent months in and around different parts of Jakarta, home to 12 million people, warranted the epidemic tag.

    She was speaking before announcing that an initial local test on a five-year-old girl who died on Wednesday after suffering from bird flu symptoms was negative for the virus.

    "This can be described as an epidemic. These (cases) will happen again as long as we cannot determine the source," Supari told reporters, but she insisted it would be wrong to label it a "frightening epidemic."

    Four Indonesians are already confirmed to have died since July from the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has killed a total of 64 people in four Asian countries since late 2003 and has been found in birds in Russia and Europe.

    Six other patients are still in a government-designated hospital in Jakarta suspected of having avian flu.

    The U.N. World Health Organization last week warned bird flu was moving toward a form that could be passed between human beings and the world had no time to waste to prevent a pandemic, an outbreak that spreads far more widely than an epidemic.

    And if it strikes here, we're not even close to being ready to deal with it.

    ***
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    Avian Flu Update
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    WHO Warns Of Avian Flu Pandemic

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:20 PM | Comments (0)

    ついに卵解禁

    ... 【IDSC20日】ベトナム政府保健省は、本年7月にH5N1亜型鳥インフルエンザウイルス感染による死亡者がさらに一名でていたことを追加して確認した。症例はベンチェ(Ben Tre)州在住の35歳の農夫であり、患者は7月25日に発症し、7月31日に死亡していた。  この患者の確認により、2004年12月中旬以降のベトナムにおける症例数は64例となり、うち21例が死亡している。 「7月に死亡していた」って今さら何言ってるんでしょうか。ベトナムは完璧に報道規制が決まって揉み消し作戦に出たんでしょうか。2月近く経ってどこかから情報が漏れて止む無く公表に至ったのか。真相はよく分かりません。  そん ...

    LeThanhTon Street Journal Technorati this

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:17 PM | Comments (0)

    鳥インフルエンザと食料の安全。

    ... 鳥インフルエンザと食料の安全。 IMG インフルエンザ、インドネシアで被害拡大 2005年 9月21日 (水) 19:29   【ジャカルタ=黒瀬悦成】インドネシアのスパリ保健相は21日、毒性の強い鳥インフルエンザウイルス(H5N1型)に感染の疑いがあるジャカルタ在住の5歳の少女が同日死亡したと発表した。   現在、少女の血液を検査して最終確認を急いでいる。   ジャカルタ首都圏および近郊地域では今年7月以降、鳥インフルエンザウイルスへの感染が確認された4人が死亡したほか、少なくとも9人が感染の疑いで治療を受けるなど、感染被害が急拡大 ...

    一燈照隅 Technorati this

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:17 PM | Comments (0)

    Grippe Aviaire : elle devient de plus en plus virulente.

    ... H5N1 du virus de la grippe aviaire depuis juillet en Indonésie. Le bilan total est de 63 morts, sur... effet averti qu'après la mutation du virus H5N1 de la grippe aviaire – pour devenir transmissible...". Si les spécialistes de l'OMS ne peuvent définir le moment où évoluera le virus H5N1, ils ...

    Popol's house Technorati this

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:16 PM | Comments (0)

    Indonesia Moves to Contain Bird Flu

    The government imposed "extraordinary" measures Tuesday to contain a bird flu outbreak that has killed four people in Indonesia, including the forced hospitalization of people with symptoms of the disease. In addition to the fatalities, seven patients suspected of having the H5N1 strain of bird flu - two of them zoo employees - have been admitted to Jakarta's infectious diseases hospital, officials said. Blood samples from the patients have been sent to Hong Kong for testing. Health

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:15 PM | Comments (0)

    Drug resistant bird flu in Southeast Asia

    From Monsters and Critics.com, " MEMPHIS, TN, United States (UPI) -- Resistance to the anti-viral drug amantadine is spreading more rapidly among avian influenza viruses of H5N1 subtype in ... " Full Story

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:14 PM | Comments (0)

    Comparing National Tamiflu Stockpiles Against Flu Pandemic Threat

    FuturePundit Future technological trends and their likely effects on human society, politics and evolution. Roche's Tamiflu (a.k.a. oseltamivir phosphate) is the most effective known drug against influenza infections. Should an H5N1 avian influenza strain mutate into a form capable of causing a large deadly human pandemic then for those infected Tamiflu might be the only drug that will reduce the odds of dying. With that in mind I've decided to start looking for information on national

    Posted by dymaxion at 05:13 PM | Comments (0)