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April 25, 2006
How Could Wind Power Reach 20% Penetration By 2030?
The 2006 EIA Energy Outlook predicted that wind power will only contribute 1.1% of U.S. electricity by 2030. In 2004 wind in the U.S. contributed 0.4%, so, over the next 24 years, the EIA expects wind to grow at an average pace of 5.15% per year. The 5.15% growth is well above the 1.1% per year expected average growth in the entire U.S. energy sector, but not close to the 35% growth that wind power saw last year. In the latest podcast, Paul Gipe indicated that he thought the EIA predictions were rubbish...I hope so too. Even President Bush is on record saying that wind power could provide 20% of the nations electricity. So then, my question is: What could a possible growth scenario look like for wind power to reach 20% penetration in the U.S. electricity sector by 2030 (equivalent to 3,845PJ of wind energy by 2030)?To get from 0.4% penetration in 2004 (equivalent to 57PJ of wind energy in 2004) to 20% penetration would require an average growth rate of 18% per year. Right now the wind industry growth is above average, so we're on our way. This is one possible way for wind energy to account for 20% of U.S. electricity demand:
The question is, how long can the U.S. sustain a 35% per year growth rate in wind power?
Posted by dymaxion at April 25, 2006 03:28 PM